Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 17.
There are a few fewer games across the Week 17 NFL Sunday slate than usual, but that doesn’t mean a lack of interesting matchups. Possibly the most bet-worthy contest of the day takes place at 1 p.m. EST as the Cincinnati Bengals welcome the Arizona Cardinals to town for what profiles as a high-scoring shootout. This’ll be a very interesting game despite the fact neither team is in the postseason picture at this point, and with a pair of high-flying offenses, expect plenty of points.
Read on for a Cardinals vs. Bengals prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 17 contest.
Cardinals vs. Bengals prediction, preview
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals have experienced something of a season from hell, with injuries leaving the roster somewhat decimated. They lost quarterback Kyler Murray as well as RB1 and RB2 James Conner and Trey Benson each for the season, leaving this offense without real rushing threats, and without a strong defense, they play from behind nearly every week. With a 3-12 record, there’s a draft pick on the minds of the front office, but the players will surely keep trying to compete. The Cardinals average 21.4 points (21st) and 332.5 yards per game (15th), converting third downs at the fifth-best rate. While Arizona ranks 27th in rushing production and will again deploy Michael Carter as the top halfback this week, the passing attack does post some impressive raw numbers behind Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Cardinals average 235.1 passing yards per game on a league-high 38.7 pass attempts, helping fuel a historic season from tight end Trey McBride (109 REC/1,098 YDS/10 TD). Michael Wilson has also worked as an excellent top wideout in recent weeks, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will also play through injury once again here.
While the offense is respectable thanks to the volume, the defense ranks among the NFL’s worst. The Cardinals give up 27.6 points (29th) and 350.5 yards per game (26th), sitting 23rd against the pass and 24th against the run in terms of raw yardage. The pass rush generates a sack percentage of just 4.98% (29th) while the unit generates 1.3 takeaways per game (12th). Safety Budda Baker (concussion) is out Sunday while cornerbacks Max Melton (hell) and Will Johnson (thumb/chest) are questionable alongside safety Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and linebacker Josh Sweat (ankle/knee).
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals went through a somewhat similar situation to the Cardinals when Joe Burrow missed most of the campaign due to injury, and inaction on the replacement front cost them some wins early on. The team eventually wound up in a hole it couldn’t dig itself out of and now enters Week 17 with a 5-10 record as a result. The starters are still playing, so the offense outlook appears very positive with Burrow at the helm. The Bengals average 23.9 points (14th) and 320.2 yards per game (21st), converting third downs at the 11th-best rate and scoring in the red zone at the ninth-best rate. They’re only 31st in rushing yards per game with 88.6 but Chase Brown has largely played excellent ball over the second half of the year. The passing attack is where they excel, averaging 231.6 yards per game via the air (eighth-best) on the second-highest volume in the league — predictably, the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are quite difficult to stop when rolling.
Same old Bengals, same old story, though. This defense allows 30.5 points and 402.8 yards per outing, both dead last in the NFL. Opponents convert third downs at the fourth-highest rate and score in the red zone at the sixth-highest. Cincinnati brings the worst run-stopping unit in the league with 156.0 yards allowed per game via the ground, also conceding 246.8 via the air. The Bengals generate few sacks at 5.00% (28th), but 1.3 takeaways per game (eighth) do create some splash plays. The injury report is largely clean aside from defensive ends Joseph Ossai (out; ankle) and B.J. Hill (questionable; ankle) as well as cornerback Josh Newton (questionable; hamstring).
Cardinals vs. Bengals pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bengals are seven-point favorites at home with -355 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cardinals are listed at +280 to win outright with a game total of 53.5 points, the highest on this slate. As far as betting splits go, 90% of straight bets favor Cincinnati while 72% are on the home team to cover. On the total, it’s a 50/50% split on the over/under.
Strong passing offenses meet terrible defenses… what could possibly go wrong for either side? With the array of cornerback injuries for Arizona, guarding Chase and Higgins looks even more impossible than it would be for most teams, and Brown provides a receiving threat out of the backfield at that. Cincinnati likely struggles to contain McBride though since the defense allows a league-high seven catches and 90 yards to tight ends on average, also conceding 15 touchdowns to the position this year. While Carter isn’t a standout halfback, he could even find running room against a Bengals unit that can’t stop the run to save their lives.
This game will undoubtedly become a shootout as both quarterbacks likely sling the rock 35+ times apiece. There’s nothing at stake here beyond jobs and egos, and if the offenses perform at the level we expect on Sunday, plenty of fantasy football players will find themselves quite pleased in the championship round. Hopefully you have a piece involved in that, but if not, get in on the action by taking over 53.5 points and even consider over 59.5 if you’re feeling particularly bold for better value.
Best bet: Over 53.5 points (-112)