On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 17 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction, preview, and picks. Kickoff from KC is at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Bucs are six-point spread favorites, and the game total is 46 points scored.
These squads last played in 2021, a game Tampa Bay won 45-17. The Bucs have won three straight in the in-state series. If you want the Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
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Terms & Conditions Can the Buccaneers save their sinking ship?
Tampa Bay (7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS, and 8-7 O/U) lost 23-20 to Carolina last weekend, its sixth defeat in seven games (0-7 ATS). The division foes were tied at halftime, but the Panthers made winning plays when they mattered, taking control of the NFC South. The Bucs dominated the time of possession but passed for just 127 yards and committed eight penalties.
Veteran QB Baker Mayfield leads the Tampa Bay offense into action with 3,144 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He has completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. The Oklahoma product’s top receiving target is rookie WR Emeka Egbuka (59 receptions for 910 yards and six TDs). The Bucs’ ground game is paced by RB Rachaad White (123 carries for 539 yards and four TDs).
Tampa Bay scores 23.1 points per game (19th) and averages 315.3 total yards (23rd), including 198.3 passing yards (23rd) and 116.9 rushing yards (20th). The Buccaneers’ defense allows 25.1 points (24th) and 343.3 total yards (22nd) per game, including 242.0 passing yards (22nd) and 101.3 rushing yards (7th).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report: LB Lavonte David, WR Chris Godwin Jr., OT Luke Goedeke, OLB Anthony Nelson, OT Tristan Wirfs, and WR Mike Evans are questionable to play vs. the Dolphins. Dolphins hope Quinn Ewers can provide a spark
Miami (6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS, and 8-5-2 O/U) lost 45-21 to Cincinnati last Sunday. Cincy led by just three at the half but erupted for 21 third-quarter points to pull away from Miami. The Bengals only narrowly outgained the Dolphins, but the home team committed three costly turnovers. The Dolphins have dropped consecutive games after winning five of their previous six.
Sixth-year NFL pro Tua Tagovailoa has been replaced by rookie signal-caller Quinn Ewers. The seventh-round pick out of Texas has appeared in two NFL games, completing 25 of his 38 passing attempts for 313 yards (8.2 YPA) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Ewer’s top receiving targets are WR Jaylen Waddle (64 receptions for 910 yards and six TDs) and RB De’Von Achane (64 receptions for 459 yards and four TDs). Achane also leads the Dolphins’ ground game with 220 carries for 1,267 yards and eight rushing scores.
Miami scores 21.1 points per game (22nd) and averages 308.9 total yards (24th), including 186.5 passing yards (25th) and 122.4 rushing yards (15th). The Dolphins’ defense gives up 24.6 points (22nd) and 339.5 total yards (19th) per game, including 209.1 passing yards (14th) and 130.3 rushing yards (24th).
Miami Dolphins Injury Report: C Aaron Brewer, FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Isaiah Johnson, TE Darren Walker, and K Jason Sanders are questionable to play vs. the Bucs. Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Pick and PreviewSpread Pick for Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay has fallen apart since starting the season 6-2 and is coming off a tough loss to Carolina. Mayfield’s poor play has contributed to the sinking of the Bucs’ ship, as he ranks 37th out of 39 QBs in completion percentage over expected since Week 7, ahead of only Brady Cook and Dillon Gabriel. Head coach Todd Bowles is in for a challenge rallying his team this week, and his teams have consistently underperformed following games against divisional opponents (16-25-2 ATS, including just 9-12 ATS with Tampa). His 16-25-2 ATS record is second-worst among 162 head coaches since 2003 in that situation.
Tampa Bay needs a victory to stay alive in the NFC South race, but don’t count on the visitors to cover. Betting against teams desperate to win in the final two weeks of the regular season has been historically profitable. Since 1990, eliminated squads playing teams that need to win have gone 108-69-4 (61%) ATS. Ewers and Miami are unpredictable, but I recommend taking the points on Sunday.
Over/Under Pick for Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay’s offense has fallen short of expectations recently, as Mayfield has passed for more than 200 yards just once since Week 10. Two of his top receivers (Godwin Jr. and Evans) are banged up, and two key offensive linemen (Wirfs and Goedeke) are also questionable to play. On the other side of the ball, Miami is starting the inexperienced rookie Ewers, who has yet to throw a touchdown in the NFL. Achane is a threat out of the backfield, but Tampa Bay has been stout against the run this season.
Anticipate a competitive, lower-scoring game on Sunday in Miami!
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