Matt Youmans – NFL Week 17 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 17 best bets.
At no point this season have the 49ers resembled the best team in the NFC. Still, in a wide-open race and with quarterback Brock Purdy flashing a hot hand, the arrow is pointing up on San Francisco as a surprising Super Bowl contender in late December.
As surprise teams go, the Bears are a bigger one. The luck factor for Chicago has been off the charts in Ben Johnson’s first season as coach. But, as every gambler knows, there’s no need to apologize for good luck, which is always a necessity throughout a winning season. So a pair of 11-4 teams that don’t really look the part will play a high-stakes game Sunday night.
The 49ers have won five in a row, all by double-digit margins, to get in position to steal the NFC West. Purdy has nine touchdown passes with one interception in the past three games, including five touchdowns and 295 yards passing in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis on Monday, when Christian McCaffrey rushed for 117 yards. It has not always been pretty, however. Purdy threw three interceptions in an ugly victory over Carolina on Nov. 24, and San Francisco’s other three wins during its streak came at the expense of the Browns, Cardinals and Titans.
The Bears have become one of the luckiest teams in NFL history. Chicago has six wins after trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, the most by any team in a season since 1970, according to ESPN Research. The reality is the Bears caught improbable breaks to beat five teams (Raiders, Commanders, Bengals, Giants and Packers) that had them dead to rights.
Of course, it would be wrong to dismiss the Bears as a team propped up solely by good fortune. Johnson is doing a lot of things right. Chicago has developed the league’s No. 2 rushing offense (152 yards per game) to complement quarterback Caleb Williams, and the defense has 31 takeaways to produce a league-best turnover differential of plus-21.
Smoke and mirrors aside, the Bears and 49ers are chasing a No. 1 seed in the NFC that’s up for grabs. San Francisco has the home field, but its bigger advantage should be the more reliable combination of Purdy, McCaffrey and coach Kyle Shanahan.
Best Bet: 49ers -3
It’s not difficult to spot the Bills’ flaws, most of which are on the defensive side. Buffalo’s run defense ranks 29th by allowing 144.3 yards per game, a weakness that will likely get exposed by Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. But there are two sides to this story and the other side is not flattering for Philadelphia, which ranks 21st in run defense (123.5 ypg) and continues to sputter offensively behind erratic quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Bills should be able to win this battle on the ground by using James Cook, the league’s leading rusher with 1,532 yards, and quarterback Josh Allen. Cook topped 100 yards in four of the past five games and did it against strong defenses. Although he stumbled through last week’s win at Cleveland, Allen has been at his best at home this season and will use his legs to help get the job done.
Best Bet: Bills -1
If the Ravens (7-8) fall in Green Bay on Saturday night, the Steelers (9-6) clinch the AFC North and could rest several starters on Sunday. If Baltimore beats the Packers, the situation changes and Pittsburgh will be going all out to beat the Browns, a scenario that makes taking the points less attractive. Aaron Rodgers’ play has been a pleasant surprise during the Steelers’ three-game win streak, but now he’s facing Myles Garrett and a Cleveland defense that just shut down Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Rodgers would prefer to sit this one out and let Mason Rudolph deal with Garrett. The low total (34) tells the tale. This will be a struggle for both offenses, and the Browns will need rookie Shedeur Sanders to play at a higher level to overcome the lack of a running attack. Cleveland, which has won five of its past six home games versus Pittsburgh, is accustomed to playing in meaningless late-season games and also would relish the spoiler role if that’s the case.
Best Bet: Browns +3
At the end of October, the Colts were 7-1 and considered by some to be the best team in the league. Two months later, after a season-ending injury to quarterback Daniel Jones and six losses in the past seven games, Indianapolis is a long shot to reach the playoffs and rolling with 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts could be eliminated from playoff contention if the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday, but Rivers is likely to start Sunday’s game either way because he didn’t come out of retirement to stand on the sideline. And Rivers was in a groove Monday, passing for 277 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. The Jaguars have won six straight, yet they are in a tricky spot after playing at Denver. Trevor Lawrence should shred a dreadful Colts defense, but Jacksonville is 2-9 in the past 11 meetings in Indianapolis, and don’t be surprised if Rivers emerges as the feel-good story of the day.
Best Bet: Colts +6
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