The Mountain West and Pac-12 will forever be changed starting in 2026 when the former conference loses five schools to the latter league. While that shift won’t be official until July 1, 2026, the MW has played its last football season with its current membership, which formed in 2013. Next season will bring a nine-school MW football league and eight programs in the Pac-12, giving the West Coast two full-fledged FBS conferences for the first time since 2023.

Here are our football tier ratings for each new-look league with an emphasis on the upcoming next five-year window, which is the length of the Pac-12’s new media-rights deals (the length of the MW’s next television deal is unknown). The tiers are not meant to cross over conferences, meaning a Tier II MW school is not commensurate with a Tier II Pac-12 school. These are solely competitive tiers within each conference.

Mountain West

Tier I

UNLV: After three straight seasons with at least nine wins and a MW championship game berth, UNLV is the team to beat in the new MW. The Rebels no longer have to deal with Boise State, which they last beat in 1976, losing 11 straight to the Broncos. Veteran coach Dan Mullen should dominate the MW for as long as he stays in it.

Air Force: The Falcons are coming off back-to-back poor seasons but averaged 10 wins in the four full years before that and might have an advantage in the transfer-portal era (players at the academy can’t transfer once they’re juniors). Troy Calhoun’s team has made 13 bowls in 19 seasons and should be an upper-tier MW program.

Tier II

New Mexico: The Lobos wouldn’t have ranked this highly before this season, but coach Jason Eck did a great job in his first year and signed an extension with New Mexico (he could still leave in a season or two if the winning continues). It might be prisoner-of-the-moment to put the Lobos this high, but the short-term looks strong.

Hawaii: Timmy Chang has Hawaii on the ascent entering his fifth season with his alma mater. The facilities still aren’t ideal, but a new stadium could break ground soon, and the Rainbow Warriors have usually been solid in the 2000s with 12 bowl appearances in the last 24 seasons. Hawaii could really benefit from the new-look MW.

Tier III

San Jose State: The Spartans lost a lot of momentum this season, going 3-9 after reaching three straight bowl games from 2022-24. Before 2020, San Jose State had just one winning record in the previous 13 seasons, so there’s not a lot of sustained winning in the 2000s, although head coach Ken Niumatalolo is a proven FBS winner.

Northern Illinois: The Huskies were terrible this year (3-9) and have been up-and-down under Thomas Hammock, who is 35-47 in seven seasons. NIU might need a coaching change soon, but this is a program that finished above .500 in 16 of the 19 seasons before Hammock was hired, doing so under four different head coaches.

Tier IV

Wyoming: The Cowboys haven’t had much success in the 2000s in the non-Craig Bohl seasons. He led Wyoming to bowl eligibility seven times in nine full seasons from 2014-23. In the 15 non-Bohl years since 2000, Wyoming is 53 games under .500 with just three bowl appearances. That doesn’t instill much confidence.

Nevada: The Wolf Pack has fallen on hard times, going 10-39 over the last four seasons, which knocks it down a tier because it’s been at rock bottom for nearly a half-decade at this point. There is a history of bowl-caliber performances, but until Nevada shows it can win in the transfer-portal era, there’s going to be some skepticism.

Tier V

UTEP: I didn’t understand this add when it happened, and I still don’t. UTEP has historically been one of the FBS’ worst programs. That’s unlikely to change in the new MW. The Miners have two winning seasons in the last 20 years and are 25-80 since 2017. As Kevin McCallister said when he saw a picture of Buzz’s girlfriend, “Woof!”

Pac-12

Tier I

Boise State: The Broncos have had the Group of 6’s elite program in the 2000s, with the team poised to remain great in the Pac-12. Boise State’s window to jump to the Power 4 has come and gone, but the Broncos are a well-oiled machine that has had 28 straight winning seasons and won 10-plus games 19 times in that stretch.

Tier II

Fresno State: The Bulldogs have been one of the West Coast’s most consistent programs the last couple of decades with four MW titles since joining that league in 2012. It should be one of the Pac-12’s top programs with a rabid football fan base helping make up for a bad stadium situation. The local recruiting terrain is strong.

San Diego State: The Aztecs made a bowl every year from 2010-19 before turbulence in recent seasons. Still, this is a program with a new stadium, a big budget and a .500 or better record in 14 of the last 16 seasons. Football may play second fiddle to men’s basketball at San Diego State, but this is a strong and stable program.

Washington State: The Cougars have admitted to some weakness in the NIL marketplace compared to incoming Pac-12 schools, but this is still one of the league’s better programs, even if Wazzu can’t keep a coach — they’re on No. 5 since 2019. Wazzu is still a bowl regular (10 of the last 13 seasons) poised to challenge for titles.

Tier III

Utah State: The Aggies have done more with less with 12 bowl berths in the last 15 seasons and a MW title in 2021. Utah State went 59-42 in MW games since joining the league with a recently renovated stadium and proven winner in coach Bronco Mendenhall. The ceiling just doesn’t seem quite as high as other Pac-12 schools.

Oregon State: It’s been a mixed bag for Oregon State, which mostly won during the Dennis Erickson (31-17), Mike Riley (93-80) and Jonathan Smith (34-35) tenures but has just three bowl berths since 2014 and is in rebuild mode after missing with the Trent Bray hire and taking a risk by hiring lifetime assistant JaMarcus Shephard.

Colorado State: The Rams have always been more potential than production, so we have to keep Colorado State in the third tier despite there being the upside for great success. Jim Mora was an excellent hire who should succeed in the new Pac-12, but the Rams last won a league title in 2002 and have one bowl berth since 2018.

Tier IV

Texas State: Added to the Pac-12 to make the numbers work, Texas State is a relative newbie to the FBS, joining in 2012 and taking 12 years to make its first bowl. The Bobcats have reached three bowls in a row under coach G.J. Kinne, who was a good hire. But even he is 12-12 in the Sun Belt during his tenure; the Pac-12 is a step up.

Tier V

None

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.