Welcome back to my weekly AFC West check-in – a quick, data-driven power ranking that tracks how the divisional shifts from Sunday to Sunday. Rankings aren’t box-score trophies – they’re context-adjusted judgments on where these teams are at and who’s sitting pole week to week. Here’s how – along with the why – I stack the AFC West heading into the last full slate of the season (sigh).
4. Raiders
Dec 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) and defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) in the tunnel against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
The Raiders are 2-14 and playing like they’re trying to clinch the No. 1 pick by halftime every week. The Maxx Crosby drama didn’t just remove pass rush – it sucked the identity out of the room, and the on-field product has matched the vibes: flat, sloppy, and allergic to momentum. Even when someone like Michael Mayer flashes, it feels like a lone bright bulb in a power outage. This is what “cooked” looks like.
Week 18 Lookahead (Chiefs at Raiders): This is a “get 2025 over with” game for both teams, and Vegas should treat it like an audition tape for 2026 roles. If Geno can’t go, the QB spot becomes a circus assignment while the staff tries to find any functional offense on the fly.
3. Chiefs
Dec 21, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun (19) scrambles against Tennessee Titans defensive tackle James Lynch (97) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Kansas City being 6-10 doesn’t even feel real, but losing your entire offensive engine (Mahomes) turns dynasty into daycare fast. The offense has been limping, uninspired, and basically living on empty calories – short drives, bad spacing, and no plan once the script gets punched. The defense is the one unit that still looks like it has pride, which is both admirable and kind of depressing. At this point, I’m still surprised we haven’t seen more Brashard Smith, because the few times he touches it, he actually injects life into a dead room.
Week 18 Lookahead (Chiefs at Raiders): KC should lean into defense, field position, and whatever run game they can manufacture – because this is actually a reasonable chance for a win. The goal is simple: end the skid and go out with some pride.
2. Chargers
Dec 21, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) returns to the bench with running back Omarion Hampton (8), tight end Will Dissly (89) and quarterback Justin Herbert (10) after catching a touchdown pass from Herbert against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
The Chargers are 11-5, playoff-bound, and still maddening because the offense can drift in and out of rhythm. Herbert continues to impress with his legs, but that’s also a tell – when your QB scramble game is your most reliable rushing button, the structure doesn’t sustain winning. Defensively, the Achilles’ heel is still the same: you can’t give up back-breaking chunk plays and expect to outscore the damage every week. They’re good, they’re dangerous, but they’re still one slow start away from getting bounced early.
Week 18 Lookahead (Chargers at Broncos): The chess move is whether the Chargers rest starters while Denver plays for seeding. Either way, this matchup is going to be physical because it’s division football. If LA sits guys, it becomes a stress test of depth; if they don’t, it’s a playoff-intensity tune-up against the best team in the division (maybe the NFL).
1. Broncos
Dec 25, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after scoring during the third quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Denver is 13-3, just ended the Arrowhead curse, and has finally become the adult in the AFC West again (Elway rejoices!). Bo Nix is a late-game closer, and the offense has learned how to win without needing perfect conditions or a 40-point script. The defense is steady, disciplined, and ruthlessly boring in the best way. Sean Payton has this team looking organized, confident, and consistent… which is exactly how contenders behave.
Week 18 Lookahead (Chargers at Broncos): Denver should treat this like a playoff dress rehearsal – start fast, control the trenches, and don’t let intensity slip just because the opponent’s motivation might be different. If the Chargers rest starters, it’s still a trap game unless Denver plays with the same urgency they had at Arrowhead.
Check out all of our NFL articles: https://www.thebiglead.com/category/nfl/