ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has reasons to be pleased with the progress of his side of the ball in recent weeks — specifically, from after the 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders onward.
Since Week 11, his offense ranks seventh in the league in EPA (expected points added per play) at 0.096 and fourth in the NFL in success rate, at 48.6 percent.
In that same span, quarterback Bo Nix ranks ninth among 32 quarterbacks (minimum 100 plays) in EPA per dropback (0.172) and fifth in success rate (50.7 percent), trailing only New England’s Drake Maye, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams.
“I think probably since the first Vegas game, really happy with the way Bo has been progressing,” Lombardi said.
“You’re always trying to ascend, and that becomes even more urgent as the playoffs start.”
In those same categories, Nix was 19th and 31st, respectively, in Weeks 1-10.
A significant difference in Lombardi’s eyes?
“I think his patience in the pocket has improved,” Lombarid said. “Keeping in his base, not running early when he doesn’t have to. I think that’s been a big improvement.”
This, in turn, has helped the offense control the tempo despite the defense’s issues and ground game struggling with consistency in the wake of J.K. Dobbins’ Lisfranc injury. In victories at Las Vegas and Kansas City, Nix and the Broncos gobbled up plays and clock; they had three drives of 13 or more plays against the Raiders and four such possessions against the Chiefs.
Early in the season, Nix might not have been capable of settling in, taking what the soft zones offered and patiently guiding the offense downfield.
But as in life, where a young quarterback starts a season isn’t where they finish.
“The last Vegas game and the Chiefs game, they were really keeping a lid on it and forcing you. I think we had four drives in the Chiefs game that were 13 plays, or even maybe three that were over 15,” Lombardi said.
“That’s hard to do, and you have to be really precise as a quarterback to do that. We’d like to be more explosive, but the fact that we’re able to do that I think has been a credit to his progression.”
Another area in which the Broncos offense has improved is penalties. In their first 10 games — through the Las Vegas home game — Denver’s offense averaged 4.0 accepted penalties against it per game. Since then, that average has dropped to 2.2.
“I feel like we’ve been decreasing our penalties, which has been a big goal in the second half of the season. I think we’ve been doing better that way,” Lombardi said.
SO, WHAT’S STILL MISSING FOR THE BRONCOS OFFENSE?
Avoiding dropped passes.
“We’d like to clean up some of the drops,” Lombardi said. “.. Just overall, specifically, the drops were a big thing we’re trying to clean up.”
Per Sport Radar, Broncos pass-catching targets have dropped 42 passes this season — 10.1 percent of catchable passes, which is the second-worst drop rate in the NFL this season.
Among players with at least 20 catchable passes, the three worst drop rates on the roster belong to Tyler Badie (one every 5.25 catchable passes), Evan Engram (one every 6.88) and RJ Harvey (one every 8.67). The best drop rates belong to Marvin Mims Jr. (one drop on 36 catchable passes), Troy Franklin (one drop every 17.3) and Courtland Sutton (one every 10.1).
The Broncos have dropped one of every 9.9 catchable passes this season. The league-wide rate is one drop every 16.3 catchable passes. Just cutting one drop per game would bring the team toward the league average.
That’s all it will take. One more catch; one less drop. It could make all the difference in completing the Broncos’ picture.
