Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers.

U.S. Bank Stadium is loud even when the stakes are strange, and this one is strange in a way only Week 18 can manage. Green Bay is already locked into the seven seed, so the whole objective is to leave the building intact. Minnesota is eliminated, yet the game still carries weight, because the quarterback room is the franchise story now. The league has spent the week whispering about veteran competition coming to town, and that turns every J.J. McCarthy snap into a referendum. The result may not move a bracket, but it can still move a locker room, and that’s why this feels tense. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The baseline numbers paint two different sports, and then the starting quarterback decision bends the math even further. Green Bay sits at 0.122 offensive EPA/play for the season and holds it at 0.126 over the last five weeks, but that profile was built with Jordan Love, not Clayton Tune. Tune’s 2025 sample is tiny, yet it still screams danger, because he’s at -1.345 EPA per dropback with one pick and one sack in only five dropbacks. That reality forces the Packers into a “who can win clean touches” offense, and the names matter. Josh Jacobs (RB) is the volume hammer with 65 carries over the last six weeks, yet the efficiency has been ugly at -0.209 EPA per rush, so every early-down run has to be attached to manageable down-and-distance. Emanuel Wilson (RB) has quietly been the change-up with 0.116 EPA per rush, and he’s the kind of back who can keep the offense afloat if Tune is living in quick game.

In the pass game, Christian Watson (WR) is the field-tilter, because he leads the Packers with 31 targets, 328 yards, four touchdowns, and a wild 3.01 yards per route, which is the only true “one throw fixes the drive” lever. Romeo Doubs (WR) and Dontayvion Wicks (WR) have been the efficiency kings by EPA per target at 1.119 and 1.149, and they matter even more when the quarterback is trying to survive with timing throws. Jayden Reed (WR) is the chain-moving safety valve with 16 catches on 17 targets, and Luke Musgrave (TE) gives Tune a middle-of-field body with 14 targets and 0.820 EPA per target.

On the other side, Minnesota’s defense has been the real identity all year at -0.097 EPA/play allowed, and it’s gone nuclear lately at -0.248 over the last five. Early downs show the collision point. Green Bay’s early-down offense sits at +0.070 EPA/play with a 45.6% success rate, but Minnesota’s early-down defense sits at -0.099 EPA allowed and stops 58.8% of early-down snaps. That’s how an offense gets squeezed before third down even arrives, and it’s how a total gets dragged into the thirties.

Minnesota is the kind of blitz-heavy defense that actually closes drives. The Vikings blitz 47.3% season-long and 49.0% lately, and they’ve kept the pressure rate steady at 43.6% over the last six. The more important part is the finish. Minnesota’s sack rate rises to 10.6% recently, and its pressure-to-sack conversion climbs to 24.4%. That’s terrifying for an offense breaking in Tune, because it shrinks the call sheet and forces the ball out before routes can develop.

Minnesota’s offense has its own skill-player story, because it’s trying to stay functional without the usual comfort blankets. Justin Jefferson (WR) still owns the target share at 27.4%, but the recent connection has been choppy at a 51.6% catch rate, which keeps Minnesota living in long-yardage more than it wants. Jordan Addison (WR) has been the cleanest explosive threat with 190 yards and 1.64 yards per route over the last six, and Jalen Nailor (WR) has been the sneaky spike with two touchdowns on 12 targets and 0.975 EPA per target. Aaron Jones (RB) and T.J. Hockenson (TE) would normally be the stabilizers, and their last-six usage shows why, with Jones drawing 15 targets and Hockenson catching 13 of 15 with 0.768 EPA per target. But they’re out, that oxygen disappears, and Jordan Mason (RB) becomes the next-man-up backfield answer after posting 4.59 a carry on his recent work.

Green Bay’s defense has generated more pressure lately at 44.3%, yet it still doesn’t turn that heat into sacks, with a 5.2% sack rate and only 11.8% pressure-to-sack conversion. That split is the entire handicap, because the side that ends possessions cleanly is the side that controls a low-total game. Minnesota also has the better kicking layer, sitting at 93.8% on field goals and 100.0% on extra points, while Green Bay sits at 81.8% and 92.9%. In an ugly scoring environment, three points are a weapon, not a footnote.

Packers vs. Vikings pick, best bet

The countercase for an under is always the same, and it has teeth here. Green Bay has been the more explosive offense lately, with a 13.0% explosive pass rate and a 14.4% explosive rush rate over the last six. Minnesota’s offense, by contrast, generates fewer explosives at 7.8% through the air and 9.5% on the ground, so one Packers chunk can distort the whole pricing. There’s also the “McCarthy mistake game” risk, because Minnesota’s offense has lived in drive killers, posting a 21.6% sack-plus-interception rate over the last six. That risk is real, and it’s why a low number never feels comfortable. I still land under because both quarterbacks and both offensive structures pull the same direction. McCarthy has struggled badly against aggressive pictures, sitting at -1.551 EPA per dropback versus Cover 0 and -0.183 versus Cover 2. When blitzed, he averages 2.77 time to throw with a 9.27 aDOT, and he uses screens only 8.9% of the time in those blitz looks. That means Minnesota can still create its own negative plays, and Green Bay can still create chaos with pressure, even if Green Bay’s offense is muted. Chaos does not always mean points. It often means punts, sacks, and short fields that still end in field goals.

Now the shape of the game becomes obvious. Minnesota should open by attacking early downs and forcing Tune to live in third-and-long against a defense that blitzes like a dare. That plan should work because Minnesota stops early downs at 58.8%, and it actually turns pressure into sacks at 24.4% conversion lately. Green Bay should try to keep the game inside the numbers with the run game and quick throws, because Minnesota’s defense is built to erase slow-developing concepts. Minnesota’s offense should lean into structure and accept that it may need to win with patience, because it has not generated explosives at a high rate lately and it still carries a heavy sack-plus-turnover tax. With Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson out, the easiest stability valves are gone, so the Vikings should treat this like a field-position game and let the defense do the talking. The Week 18 ecosystem matters, too. Green Bay’s incentive is preservation, and Minnesota’s incentive is evaluation under stress, and that combination usually produces conservative decisions and a game that never quite opens up.

I’m playing under 37.5 (-118) because the most likely game trees all run through negative plays. Minnesota’s defense is too strong on early downs and too efficient at finishing pressure. Green Bay’s offense is too altered to trust, and Minnesota’s offense has too many drive-killing outcomes to count on clean scoring.

My projected final is Vikings 20, Packers 10.

Best bet: Vikings vs. Packers u37.5 total points (-120)

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I’d rather live in Jayden Reed (WR) receptions than sweat a side in this scoring shape, because Tune’s first job is simply to complete passes and avoid the blitz tax. Reed has been the most reliable hands in the room lately with 16 catches on 17 targets and 0.532 EPA per target, and his 6.4 aDOT profile fits a backup quarterback living on quick answers. Minnesota blitzes 49.0% lately and converts pressure into sacks at 24.4%, so the antidote is condensed, on-time throws, not deep developing concepts. Watson supplies the downfield swing, but Reed is the chain mover who can stack five- and six-catch games without needing explosives. If DraftKings eventually hangs Reed 4+ receptions at a reasonable plus price, that’s the clean angle, and if it’s 4.5, I still like the over as long as it’s not juiced past the mid -120s.

Best prop lean: Jayden Reed OVER receptions

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