NFL Week 18 Overreactions
USAT’s Prince Grimes breaks down the NFL playoff picture after closing out the regular season.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers improbably made it into the 2025 NFL playoffs after Baltimore Ravens kicker Tyler Loop missed a game-winning, 44-yard field goal at the end of their winner-take-all game to allow Mike Tomlin’s squad to win the AFC North.
Now, the Steelers will look to capitalize on that gaffe and win a postseason game for the first time since the 2016 NFL playoffs.
The Steelers are set to host the Houston Texans in the wild-card round to kickstart their postseason run. The Texans earned the AFC’s No. 5 seed after posting a 12-5 record and winning their last nine games consecutively.
The Pittsburgh vs. Houston game figures to be a fun matchup for fans of old-school, defensive-minded football. Which team will emerge from the No. 4 vs. No. 5 wild-card game victoriously?
Here’s a breakdown of the Steelers vs. Texans “Monday Night Football” matchup for the 2025 NFL playoffs.
The lower-seeded Texans hold a slight edge over the Steelers in the contest, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
Spread: Texans (-3)Moneyline: Texans (-185) | Steelers (+150)Over/under: 39.5
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Aaron Rodgers vs. Texans pass rush
The Texans are adept at generating pressure without blitzing, but they will face a tough test against Rodgers. The 42-year-old veteran tends to get the ball out of his hands quickly, as he his average time to throw of just 2.46 seconds ranks third-fastest among 45 quarterbacks to log at least 100 plays in 2025, per Sumer Sports.
With that in mind, DeMeco Ryans will need to scheme up a way to quickly get Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter into the Steelers’ backfield. If the Texans can succeed doing that, they will be able to throw Rodgers off-rhythm and potentially sack him multiple times for the fifth consecutive game.
C.J. Stroud vs. Steelers pass rush
Stroud has generated a 65.5 passer rating when pressured compared to a mark of 105.7 when kept clean, per Pro Football Focus. That will make it paramount for Pittsburgh’s pass rush to show up in a big way Monday.
The good news for the Steelers? T.J. Watt returned from a lung injury last game and their defense racked up three sacks of Lamar Jackson. Alex Highsmith had two and Nick Herbig got one while Watt and Cameron Heyward were disruptive up front.
The Texans rank just 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (108.9), so pressuring Stroud figures to be key in turning Monday’s game into a grind-it-out, defensive battle.
DK Metcalf vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
Metcalf was the Steelers’ leading wide receiver in 2025 despite missing two games to end the season because of a suspension. The 28-year-old finished the season with 59 catches across 15 games; the other six receivers to play a game for the Steelers this season combined to total 77 catches.
Taking away Metcalf will force Rodgers to rely on lesser weapons to beat a Texans defense that allowed just 185.4 passing yards per game, good for sixth-fewest in the NFL. Stingley is certainly capable of doing that after limiting opposing receivers to a 63.3 passer rating and 33 total catches across 17 games in 2025, per Pro Football Focus.
Early prediction for Steelers vs. Texans
The Texans may be entering the postseason on an NFL-best nine-game winning streak, but this matchup with the Steelers figures to be a tough test for them.
Rodgers is the type of experienced quarterback who can negate some of Houston’s defensive advantages, even if he doesn’t have the same arm strength and mobility he did in his prime. He can do plenty with the quick passing game to keep the Texans’ defense slightly off-balance and keep the Steelers in Monday’s game.
Additionally, Acrisure Stadium is a difficult environment in which to play in normal circumstances. The pro-Pittsburgh crowd should be in a frenzy as the franchise seeks its first playoff win since 2017.
While the Steelers may be able to keep Monday’s game close, the Texans should find a way to win it. They have the better balanced squad and their top-ranked defense is the best unit set to participate in the wild-card weekend finale.
Expect Houston to prevail in a tight, ugly finish to ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” slate for the 2025 NFL season.