The Broncos have four possible opponents in the divisional round.
They could know their foe by Sunday night; if the Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers win on the road Sunday, they’ll come to Denver — and if both win, the lower of the two seeds, the Chargers, will arrive for a rematch of the Week 18 game, this time with the Bolts playing their full complement of starters.
If seeding holds, the Pittsburgh Steelers will visit. But few expect the AFC North champions to defeat the No. 5 seeded Houston Texans, who boast a nine-game winning streak and the NFL’s top-ranked defense.
And the Steelers — despite their seeding — represent the foe that would probably be the best matchup for the Broncos.
RANKING THE POTENTIAL BRONCOS DIVISIONAL-ROUND OPPONENTS — FROM BEST TO WORST MATCHUPS
1. PITTSBURGH
OFFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 16
OFFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 18
DEFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 11
DEFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 19
Of the seven qualifiers for the AFC postseason, the Steelers bring the least potency and potential Super Bowl credibility. On balance, this is an average team, reflected in a point differential of plus-0.6 points per game (plus-10 for the season). They went 7-3 in one-score games; a 5-5 mark would have left them with an 8-9 record. Aaron Rodgers was serviceable at age 42, but finished with the lowest success rate (42.9 percent) of his career.
As ever, Mike Tomlin extracts every drop from his roster, ensuring a 19th season on the job without a losing record and a sixth-consecutive winning season, making the Steelers one of just two teams to finish above .500 every season in the 2020s.
But this Steelers edition went 1-5 against playoff teams, with that sole win coming at New England in September by a 21-14 count — before the Patriots were the fully-formed version of themselves. It’s doubtful that a rematch would go the same way. The Steelers are an average team, and given that the Broncos haven’t lost a game in the last two seasons to a foe that was appreciably worse than them, it would be a shock if Pittsburgh could knock them off at Empower Field at Mile High. This is the matchup the Broncos want.
2. L.A. CHARGERS
OFFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 21
OFFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 24
DEFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 10
DEFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 12
Sure, the Broncos haven’t figured out how to beat the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers when they’ve used most of their starters. But Denver came close to a win in Week 3 despite Bo Nix being off-target and off-rhythm; his improved footwork and consistency is an obvious difference in a potential rematch.
But a concern is the Chargers’ improved defensive form; from Weeks 13-17, coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit ranked 6th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, and led the league in rushing EPA per play. It proved susceptible to being beat over the top by Houston in Week 17, but if they utilize soft zones and don’t allow Bo Nix to beat them deep, their front seven could keep the Broncos from staying on schedule on the ground.
That said, Jaleel McLaughlin has a 59.5-percent success rate on his carries that leads the Broncos, and his 5.1-yards-per-carry average comes without a single rush over 16 yards, which is testament to the consistency of his production in recent weeks when given the opportunity. McLaughlin could represent the best chance to pick the lock of Los Angeles’ run defense.
3. HOUSTON
OFFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 19
OFFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 22
DEFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 2
DEFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 2
The Texans would certainly crave another shot at the Broncos with C.J. Stroud playing the entire game, although it’s not as if the Broncos were at full strength for that Week 9 contest; they played without two recent All-Pros in Pat Surtain II and Marvin Mims Jr.
Houston went 4-4 against playoff teams — but after starting 0-3, finished 4-1, with the only loss after Week 7 coming to the Broncos. Their offense has lacked consistency, but in Week 17 against the Chargers found a big-play touch to seize control of the game in the first quarter; this is likely the plan they would want to emulate in a potential Broncos rematch.
As dominant as Houston’s defense was over the course of the season in finishing atop the NFL in total defense, it wobbled a bit down the stretch. Furthermore, Bo Nix and Denver’s offense exploited it late in the Week 9 comeback win.
While Houston’s goal would be to deal some haymakers early, the Broncos could bank on keeping it close enough to set up Nix for a final, game-winning drive. His abilities in close-and-late situations — he posted a 107.0 rating in the final three minutes of the first half, the final three minutes of the second half (when tied or trailing by one score) and overtime — mean that if the Broncos defense can match Houston’s, the game could be in Nix’s hands late, which is where they want it.
4. BUFFALO
OFFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 4
OFFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 3
DEFENSIVE DVOA RANK: 20
DEFENSIVE EPA/PLAY RANK: 13
Why Buffalo instead of the Texans? It’s not just Josh Allen, but the NFL’s leading rusher, James Cook, and the presence of two capable pass-catching tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, both of which could create matchup issues. Their receiving corps lacks a clear alpha threat, but that makes it much like the Jaguars’ collection of receivers that caused Denver’s defense problems in Week 16.
The Bills are capable of causing the Broncos the same problems as they did last January, and with Brandon Jones out with a shoulder injury and Dre Greenlaw working his way back from a hamstring issue, Denver might be in a similar position with personnel at inside linebacker and safety as it was last year, when its late-season struggles necessitated the free-agent additions of Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga.
Denver’s offense should be able to do a better job of keeping pace than it did last year, but the Bills have the firepower and balance to pose difficult questions — just as the Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders did this season, and the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens did in 2024.
