Ty Simpson is a complicated evaluation. Early on in his debut season for the Crimson Tide the consensus was he was a Round 1 Quarterback Prospect with a chance at the 1st Overall Pick. However as the season went along his play took a turn. His longer deep ball touch worsened, he struggled to escape the pocket as easily, and his anticipation on out breaking routes regressed.
Perhaps it was injury related regression? Perhaps it was more of Simpson’s shortcomings and limitations with his inexperience showing up with defenses getting more tape on him? NFL evaluators will have to be diligent in their film study to see what the causes of this regression was and how much was related to his injuries.
What should NFL scouts and General Managers value more? 7 game dominance spanning all the way to Week 8? Or 7 and a half game Weeks 9-Rose Bowl regression?
His stats before and after the midway point of the season are jarring.
The latter two, and especially the scramble rate decreasing dramatically, certainly could point to Simpson playing through pain and adjusting his playstyle accordingly. Considering the timing of his statistical regression lining up to the timeline of Simpson’s injuries, there is a strong likelihood of the two being linked in my opinion. The Scouting Combine medical checks will be crucial for Ty Simpson to see how he is recovering after this quartet of injuries and conditions. If he passes these medicals with flying colors it would do wonders for his draft stock should NFL teams also come to the conclusion that his regression was predominantly injury related.
In my initial Big Board Top 100 rankings, there were rumors of Simpson’s injuries but they had not been substantiated, so he was lowered to #53 on my Big Board with a Round 2 Grade after seeing his regression. With the current knowledge of his injuries, I can look upon that tape with kinder eyes. But even still, that tape can’t be entirely thrown out and Simpson only has 15 Collegiate Starts and 602 dropbacks. That is similarly small sample size to Anthony Richardson (13 Collegiate Starts, 455 dropbacks) who was famously inexperienced yet young coming out of Florida.
I will adjust my Round 2 Grade of Ty Simpson to Round 1-2 with the context of his injuries coming to light and assuming he has a good medical check in Indianapolis to alleviate any concerns about future injury or lingering issues. But there is certainly red flags here and a small sample size to bank on. If he is available when the Colts pick in Round 2 (47th Overall barring trades), there could be a major debate on whether or not the Colts should take the Bama passer to add to the Colts QB room.
Can beggars be choosers when the Colts have a QB coming off a torn Achilles, another recovering his sight from a freak orbital bone injury (both QBs with lengthy prior injury histories), and a 2025 Round 6 rookie with basically 1.75 games of snaps in the NFL (albeit with some promise)?
Or should the Colts prioritize trying to add to their roster at other needs in Round 2 to help whoever is under center for the Colts have a better chance at winning?
With General Manager Chris Ballard and Head Coach Shane Steichen both on the hot seat as they enter year 10 and 4 respectively with the Colts scant to no playoff appearances and subsequent success, this decision if they are afforded it could decide their fates in Indianapolis.