Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears in this NFL Playoffs showdown on Wild Card Weekend.

After 18 grueling weeks of action on the gridiron, the NFL Playoffs have finally arrived. Wild Card Weekend kicks off with something of a lopsided matchup, but the featured game between NFC North rivals brings all the drama you could hope for. The Chicago Bears stunned the league by securing their first division title since 2018. Now, they look to survive and advance against a hungry Green Bay Packers squad with dreams of knocking off a very familiar opponent to survive and advance to the Divisional Round.

Read up on the matchup with a Packers vs. Bears prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Wild Card Weekend duel.

Packers vs. Bears prediction, preview

Green Bay Packers

Through the early weeks of the regular season, these Packers looked like a wagon and early Super Bowl favorite. That sentiment shifted some over the course of the campaign, especially after losing superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons to a season-ending knee injury. While his loss dealt a significant blow to the unit and potentially lowers the ceiling, there are still signs indicating a possible deep playoff run despite closing out the regular season on a four-game losing streak with a 9-7-1 record.

Green Bay largely plays a grinding style of football that favors ground-and-pounding opponents into submission. The Packers average 23.0 points (16th) and 332.6 yards per game (15th), converting third downs at the second-best rate but falling to 18th in red-zone scoring rate. The offense sits fifth in rush play percentage though an average of 119.8 YPG and 4.1 YPC don’t indicate a particularly efficient rushing attack — questions about Josh Jacobs’ effectiveness aren’t without merit given his injury history, but things clearly hum when he gets going. Jordan Love has quarterbacked the aerial attack to the tune of 212.8 YPG (17th), and the Packers also rank ninth-best in completion percentage with the sixth-highest yards per pass. The group of receiving weapons is led by wideout Romeo Doubs (55 REC, 724 YDS, six TD), though Christian Watson has largely excelled with 611 yards and six touchdowns despite missing seven games.

The defense also borders on some top-10 numbers, holding opponents to 21.2 points (11th) and 311.8 YPG (12th). The Packers also rank 14th in opponent third-down conversion rate, but the red-zone scoring rate falls all the way to 21st. This unit concedes 117.7 YPG on the ground (18th), while it’s stronger through the air with 194.1 YPG allowed via the air (11th). One player to watch will be cornerback Trevon Diggs, a former All-Pro with the Cowboys who Green Bay just claimed via waivers in hopes of a return to his prior form. While the pass rush generated 36 sacks this season with the ninth-best pressure rate, that percentage of QB pressures dropped to 14th over the final three games without Parsons, albeit the sample size remains quite limited. As for takeaways, the Packers posted just o.8 per game.

Chicago Bears

Looking towards the Bears, the franchise appears to be the new cool kids on the block. They were in contention for the NFC’s top seed until the final weeks and still managed an 11-6 record in the first campaign under head coach Ben Johnson, so simply being here in the postseason field is enough to surpass the expectations from August.

This offense finished the regular season with some impressive numbers at 25.9 points (ninth) and 369.2 YPG (sixth). Chicago sits seventh in third-down conversion rate as well as 13th in red-zone scoring percentage, so it’s clear that Johnson’s offensive mind has helped considerably raise the ceiling of a once-poor team. The Bears run the ball at the ninth-highest rate but average 144.2 YPG on the ground (third) on 4.9 YPC (also third-best). D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai form one of the league’s more talented committees as a lightning-and-thunder duo. The roster is loaded with other weapons, too. Leading receiver and rookie tight end Colston Loveland (58 REC, 713 YDS, six TD) and fellow rookie Luther Burden (47 REC, 652 YDS, two TD) have excelled in recent weeks, while Rome Odunze is also expected to return after a foot injury sidelined him for the last few weeks. That means Caleb Williams should have all weapons at his disposal after leading Chicago to 225.1 YPG through the air (10th) and tossing two touchdowns in five straight appearances.

While the offense remains quite strong, the Chicago defense does lag behind. A range of injuries impacted availability of key starters for much of the campaign, but even that aspect doesn’t quite make up for 24.4 points (23rd) and 361.8 YPG allowed (29th). The Bears allow the 22nd-ranked third-down conversion rate and the 15th-ranked red-zone scoring percentage, while their 2.9 touchdowns allowed per contest fall 23rd. The unit gives up 134.5 rushing YPG (27th) and 227.2 passing YPG (22nd). The 35 sacks are somewhat respectable but the league’s sixth-lowest pressure rate doesn’t lend itself to keeping Love off-balance. However, the Bears generate an NFL-best 1.9 takeaways per game and seem to continuously find ways to squeak out close wins with those plays.

Packers vs. Bears pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Packers are 1.5-point favorites on the road with -120 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Bears are listed at +100 to win outright with a game total of 45.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 68% of straight bets favor Chicago while 51% favor the over on the total.

Wow, what direction to go on this one? The odds indicate a true toss up on Saturday, which makes some sense given recent matchups. These teams met back in Week 14 and Week 16, and while Green Bay won the first outing 28-21, Chicago took the rematch in a 22-16 final. Dating back to last season as well, the teams once again split the series with a 20-19 Packers win before a 24-22 Bears loss.

What do we see here? These teams typically play each other closely over the last two years, essentially since the beginning of the Caleb Williams era. The Bears have the better offense here with a more diverse attack thanks to the abundance of playmakers at every position on that side of the ball, and with the lessened effectiveness of the Green Bay pass rush without Parsons, Williams should have time to work in the pocket. That bodes well for the home team’s outlook, though they capped out at 21 points in two meetings this season. Conversely, the Packers may move the ball as well with Jacobs targeting a weak front seven, so we could also see the visitors try to win by slowing the tempo and controlling the time-of-possession battle.

Whichever way, it’s difficult to see a real surplus of points in this contest. Green Bay found little consistency on offense through the final weeks of the regular season and while Chicago didn’t have similar issues, the latter didn’t eclipse 22 points in either matchup earlier in the campaign. In a battle between teams that love to establish the run before taking the occasional play-action shot, the under on the game total feels like a prudent choice.

Best bet: Under 45.5 points (-110)