Griffin Wong takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for the NFL Wild Card Round game between the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

After four weeks of preseason and another 18 of regular season, the NFL comes down to this: a five-week, four-round tournament, culminating in the Super Bowl on February 8, with 14 of the league’s best teams. In projects to be one of the most wide-open playoffs in recent memory, with several traditional powerhouses falling short of the postseason altogether and several surprise entrants taking their places.

Perhaps no matchup would have seemed as unlikely before the season started than today’s 1 p.m. ET clash between the third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars and the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills. The Bills were expected to make the postseason as division champions, but the New England Patriots ended their five-season reign. As for the Jaguars, they opened the season with just +275 odds to win the division and an O/U of 7.5 wins, which they easily smashed at 13-4.

Alas, after 18 weeks, this is the way the AFC has shaken out, and despite all of its playoff experience, Buffalo shouldn’t doubt Jacksonville for a second, especially since it has to go on the road to EverBank Stadium in North Florida, where the Jaguars haven’t lost since October 19.

The game is projected to be as close as it gets, with the Bills -112 on the Moneyline and Jacksonville -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total is set to 51.5.

The Jaguars are arguably the hottest team in football, as they haven’t lost since November 9, when they were edged out, 36-29, by the division rival Houston Texans. Since then, their wins haven’t even been particularly close, with only two even decided by a single possession. For the season, they finished as the league’s sixth-best scoring offense and the eighth-best scoring defense. Their post-bye scoring average (32.8 points per game) would have led the NFL across the full season, and their 18.1 points per game against would’ve ranked third. Despite an easy schedule — the only playoff teams they faced after the bye were the Texans and the first-seeded Denver Broncos — those numbers are undeniable, and they have to be considered title contenders.

In a sense, their success is confounding, given that last season’s star rookie wideout, Brian Thomas Jr., had a mediocre season (48 catches, 707 yards, and two touchdowns), and second overall pick Travis Hunter went down with a season-ending LCL tear in practice right after the bye week. Instead, it was a duo of unsung heroes — Parker Washington (41 catches, 640 receiving yards, and four touchdowns after the bye) and Jakobi Meyers (42 catches, 483 yards, and three scores after arriving from the Las Vegas Raiders via trade) — who were the difference-makers in Jacksonville’s postseason push. Trevor Lawrence set new career highs in touchdown percentage and QBR, and Travis Etienne Jr. responded to a rough 2024 season with his third career 1,000-yard campaign. Perhaps most impressively, the Jaguars ranked 11th in pass-blocking grades and 14th in run-blocking grades after finishing 19th and 26th in those categories, respectively, last season.

Defensively, Jacksonville was elite against both the run and the pass. The Jaguars allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt on the ground while adding the eighth-most expected points through their run defense, ranking 12th by PFF’s run defense grades after finishing 23rd in that category last season. Per usual, that effort was led by middle linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who’s led the league in total tackles twice and solo tackles twice, but Josh Hines-Allen added 8.0 sacks, 7.5 of which came after the bye, and linebacker Devin Lloyd and safety Antonio Johnson were both among six players tied for second in the league with five interceptions. Jacksonville allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt through the air while intercepting the second-most passes and defending the most.

The Jaguars are undoubtedly hotter than Buffalo, but at 12-5, it’s not like the Bills are a bad football team. They had a few uncharacteristic losses across the second half of the season, including a lopsided defeat against the Miami Dolphins, and they faced five playoff participants in the second half of the season alone, though their schedule was easier than Jacksonville’s as a whole. Buffalo can most certainly score — it finished fourth in scoring offense for the season — but the only question remains whether or not the Bills can defend: they ranked just 12th in scoring defense. Buffalo’s offensive numbers arguably would have looked even better if not for weather: it scored just 12 points in a Week 17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in cold and wet conditions.

Critically, the Bills have an advantage at the most important position. Josh Allen’s 2025 campaign was slightly worse than his 2024 MVP effort — he threw three fewer touchdown passes and four more interceptions, had a QBR 10.1 points lower, and took sacks at nearly triple the frequency — but a 69.3% completion percentage, 4,427 total yards, and 39 total touchdowns is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, his bad-throw percentage was a career-low and his on-target percentage a career-high. He didn’t do it alone: while his receiving crew was a disappointment (no wideout besides Khalil Shakir even recorded 450 yards), James Cook led the league in rushing yards for the first time, amassing nearly 2,000 total yards and scoring 16 touchdowns. He finished second in the league in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Buffalo wasn’t an elite blocking team, but it outpaced the Jaguars in that category.

Defensively, the Bills’ secondary stepped up. This season, they allowed the third-lowest completion percentage, the fewest yards, and the sixth-fewest touchdown passes, contributing the third-most expected points on defense. Their pass-rush was also elite: despite blitzing at a below-average rate, they managed to get pressure at the 11th-highest frequency, and five different players had at least three sacks. They were also quite disciplined, being the least-penalized team in football and missing the fourth-fewest tackles. However, they were far more gettable against the run, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns, and it wasn’t solely a matter of volume, either; they allowed the third-most yards per carry. Buffalo did tighten it up slightly as the season went on, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards in four of its final six games, but the run defense was a key part of the Bills’ downfall last season and has been worse in 2025.

Jaguars vs. Bills pick, best bet

Based solely on the results of the second half of the season, the hosts should win this one easily. Their offense has clicked and they’re lighting up scoreboards, and unlike Buffalo, they’re brilliant against both the run and the pass. They also have home-field advantage, which is critical, given that Allen completed passes at a clip nearly 10 percentage points lower on the road and averaged 2.83 fewer adjusted yards per attempt. Solely comparing Allen’s road splits to Lawrence’s home splits, it’s even feasible to conclude that Lawrence is the better quarterback, which is confounding given that the average PFF coverage grade of Allen’s home opponents was higher than that of his road opponents. Plus, the Bills’ run defense is even worse on the road.

But football isn’t played in a vacuum, and playoff experience matters. Allen has 13 career playoff starts and Lawrence has just two. He didn’t even play particularly well in those starts, completing just 60.2% of his passes for 505 yards, five touchdowns, and five picks, including an absolute back-breaker down 10 points late in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs. Allen, meanwhile, is a playoff riser, throwing 25 touchdown passes and just four picks in the playoffs. Had he never run into Patrick Mahomes in the postseason, he’d almost certainly have made a Super Bowl by now. Liam Coen has coached in six playoff games and only one at the coordinator level, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run game underwhelmed in a Wild Card Round loss to the Washington Commanders last season, while Sean McDermott has coached 14 playoff games as a head coach.

Hines-Allen’s matchup against Dion Dawkins might well be the key for Jacksonville, given that Allen posted the league’s sixth-best passing grades from a clean pocket but only the 32nd-best when pressured. He also recorded turnover-worthy plays on 3.6% of his throws when pressured and only 1.6% of his throws when the pocket was kept clean. The Jaguars should have the edge: Dawkins only posted the 37th-best pass-blocking efficiency of all high-volume tackles, while Hines-Allen recorded the sixth-highest pass-rush win rate among edge rushers. If Hines-Allen can get pressure on Allen and keep the Bills from extending drives, Jacksonville’s stronger defense could also be the better-rested unit. Etienne isn’t the most efficient back, but he’s nearly as elusive as Cook and has a higher breakaway rate. Plus, while Buffalo gets pressure at a higher rate overall, Lawrence has been comparatively as good under pressure as when he has a clean pocket.

The track record of postseason teams with run defenses as bad as the Bills’ is mixed. In the previous five seasons, eight teams — including Buffalo in 2025 — have made the playoffs with a run defense that ranked in the league’s bottom five by expected points added. Of the previous seven, four lost in their playoff opener, one in the divisional round, and two in the conference championship. One of those teams — the 2022 Los Angeles Chargers — even lost to a team led by Etienne, who turned his 20 carries into 109 yards. This Bills secondary is somewhat better than that Chargers secondary was, but this Jaguars team as a whole is better now. The most wide-open AFC picture in years will open up even further this afternoon.

Best bet: Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (-108) vs. Buffalo Bills. Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

Jacksonville should enter this game with one strategy: keep the ball out of Allen’s hands. With Allen’s ability to make plays out of seemingly nothing and Cook’s ruthless efficiency on the ground, Buffalo can put up points in a hurry, so controlling the clock will be paramount. Lawrence hasn’t played badly, and the Bills’ secondary isn’t a major threat to force turnovers, but Coen knows that he’s not going to make or break the Jaguars’ chances of victory.

Best prop lean: Travis Etienne Jr. O15.5 Rushing Attempts (+103)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!