Jan. 10, 2026Updated Jan. 11, 2026, 1:04 a.m. ET

The LA Chargers (11-6) and New England Patriots (14-3) meet Sunday for an AFC Wild Card playoff game. Kickoff at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBC / Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chargers vs. Patriots odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Patriots lead the all-time series 27-17-2, including a 41-28 victory in an AFC Divisional Playoff Game on Jan. 13, 2019. These teams have met 4 times in the postseason, with the home team winning 3 times. That includes a 51-10 win by the San Diego Chargers over the Boston Patriots in the AFL Championship Game on Jan. 5, 1964.

Patriots QB Drake Maye, an MVP candidate, completed 72.0% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs in the regular season, while also running for 450 yards and 4 TDs. He is making his first-career NFL postseason start.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 26 TDs and 13 INTs in the regular season, and he was held out of the Week 18 game to rest. He’s been dealing with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand since Week 13, wearing a protective glove, but hasn’t missed any time due to the injury. Herbert has made 2 postseason starts in his career, completing just 52.0% of his attempts (39-of-75) for 515 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs. In his most recent playoff start, he threw for 242 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in a 32-12 loss to the Houston Texans in an AFC Wild Card on Jan. 11, 2025.

The Chargers lost their final 2 games in the regular season, including a 20-16 setback at home in Week 17 as a 1.5-point favorite as the Under (38.5) cashed in Herbert’s last appearance. The Bolts are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in the past 7 road games. The Under cashed in 3 of the past 4 road outings, too.

The Patriots closed on a high, winning and covering the final 3 games, with the Over going 5-0 in the final 5 outings. New England went 4-1 ATS in the final 5 contests, too.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!Chargers at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:52 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Chargers +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Patriots -200 (bet $200 to win $100)Against the spread: Chargers +3.5 (-110) | Patriots -3.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Chargers at Patriots key injuries

Chargers

OT Austin Deculus (oblique) questionableLB Bud Dupree (hamstring) questionableTE Tucker Fisk (ankle) questionableRB Omarion Hampton (ankle) questionableWR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring) outDB Elijah Molden (hamstring) questionableLB Del’Shawn Phillips (hamstring) questionableS Kendall Williamson (ankle) out

Patriots

CB Alex Austin (wrist) questionableWR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) questionableLB Harold Landry III (knee) questionableOT Thayer Munford Jr. (knee) questionableDT Khyiris Tonga (foot) out

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SNF: Best Prop BetsChargers at Patriots picks and predictionsPrediction

Patriots 27, Chargers 16

The Patriots (-200) will cost you 2 times as much as your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive for a standalone wager. If you were to play New England as part of a multi-leg parlay, that would be perfectly OK to include it.

PASS a straight up play, however.

PATRIOTS -3.5 (-110) is worth a look.

While Maye is making his first NFL postseason start, and Herbert has 2 starts under his belt in the playoffs, experience isn’t everything. Herbert was a disaster in his most recent playoff start, and he was a little banged up down the stretch, albeit to his non-throwing hand. Maye is an MVP candidate, and he is at home, which will certainly help him get acclimated in the postseason.

It’s also tough for the Chargers going west to east, although the later start time will lessen the sting of the 3-hour difference. The last time the Bolts played in the Eastern Time Zone, they were boat-raced by the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-6 in Week 11. They’re 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in the Eastern Time Zone this season, too, and 0-4 ATS in 4 games east of the Mississippi River.

UNDER 45.5 (-110) is the lean in this night game in Foxboro, but go lightly. The weather won’t be much of a factor with temperatures around freezing, but there will be partly cloudy conditions with only a 15% chance of precipitation with a slight breeze.

The Under went 2-2 in those 4 games for the Chargers east of the Mississippi, while going 3-1 in the past 4 road outings.

The Patriots cashed high in the final 5 games of the regular season, so proceed with caution, and the Over was 6-1 in the final 7 home outings.

New England should be decent on offense, but L.A. might struggle.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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