This is my sixth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro Team and the end-of-season awards. Each year, after the All-Pro team is officially announced, I write an article listing who I voted for at each position and giving some reasoning where appropriate. All of my choices were based on play through Week 17 and all stats below are through Week 17 unless otherwise noted.
Obviously, some of my choices will be controversial, and I had to leave some very good players off my ballot. Please trust that I take this responsibility very seriously and I am thinking about my votes throughout the season, then spend a good few hours on it once we get to the end of the year and I have to make my final picks.
You’ll find the full first and second team listed here. The full voting numbers are here (and I assume will be on Pro Football Reference soon as well).
There were three unanimous choices: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Myles Garrett.
2025 All-Pro Ballot
Offense
Quarterback 1: Drake Maye, Patriots
Quarterback 2: Matthew Stafford, Rams
OK, this is the big one, because as we all know it’s a proxy for other choices that will be announced in a few weeks.
First of all, let me say that schedule strength absolutely matters. I don’t understand the idea that it doesn’t matter. If we’re going to look at statistics to help us determine which quarterback is better, how can we not consider the context of those statistics? Let’s be blunt: it was easier to accumulate good stats this year with Drake Maye‘s schedule than with Matthew Stafford‘s schedule. Through Week 17, the Patriots had played the easiest QB schedule in the league based on the average pass defense DVOA of their opponents. The Rams had the third-toughest schedule behind Tennessee and San Francisco. If you look at EPA per play instead, there’s a smaller difference, but the Patriots still have the easiest schedule and the Rams rank 14th.
Also, the idea that this is the first time anybody has ever considered strength of schedule is absolutely absurd. Remember a couple years ago when I was the only one to vote for Josh Allen for MVP? I specifically put Dak Prescott second instead of first because of strength of schedule.
So, through Week 16, I absolutely was going to have Matthew Stafford as my top quarterback. At that point, Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing DYAR at 1,815. Drake Maye was fifth at 1,013 DYAR behind Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love. Even though Maye has positive rushing value and Stafford has negative rushing value, there’s no way that rushing value was going to make up even half of a gap that big.
Week 17 made me rethink things. It’s not that Matthew Stafford had a bad game in prime time on national television, but just that he had his worst game of the season, period, in the same week where Maye had his best game of the season (even after adjusting for the Jets having a historically bad pass defense this year).
Now, the numbers look like this when you add in rushing value. I do something called Adjusted DYAR that reflects the fact that a yard of rushing DYAR is worth more than a yard of passing DYAR. (A “replacement level” QB rushing play is worth a lot more than a “replacement level” passing play.)
Player
Team
Adj DYAR
Pass
Run
M.Stafford
LAR
1,623
1,780
-75
D.Maye
NE
1,418
1,231
89
D.Prescott
DAL
1,311
1,263
23
J.Goff
DET
1,213
1,255
-20
J.Love
GB
1,122
1,101
10
This would still seem to point to Matthew Stafford as our top guy, but I thought about it some more.
First of all, I’m not the only guy out here doing advanced metrics. If all the advanced metrics tie, I’m happy to use my numbers as the tiebreaker. But what if the other advanced metrics disagree with DVOA and DYAR? Almost every other advanced metric out there has Drake Maye ahead of Matthew Stafford. That includes metrics that try to account for schedule strength. For example, ESPN QBR through Week 17 has Maye at 76.5, Love at 73.4, Prescott at 71.9 and Stafford at 70.1. Kevin Cole’s adjusted EPA puts Maye on top followed by Prescott, Allen, Love and then Stafford. He has Maye on top even though Maye has the largest total adjustment downward. Ben Baldwin also does an adjusted EPA per play (rather than total EPA) and it has Brock Purdy first (with fewer games). Then it goes Love, Prescott, Maye, Joe Burrow and Stafford. (Both Kevin Cole and Ben Baldwin use FTN Data charting in their adjustments.)
I also then thought about the Offensive Player of the Year race, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Puka Nacua. Man, Puka Nacua had an amazing season. That emphasizes the way that Stafford, with Nacua and Davante Adams, is in a better setup than Maye, who has Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte as his top two receivers. Diggs is very good, but look at what happens to Adjusted DYAR when we take out the top receivers:
Player
Team
Top WR
Adj DYAR
Adj DYAR
w/o top WR
M.Stafford
LAR
P.Nacua
1,623
553
D.Maye
NE
S.Diggs
1,418
886
D.Prescott
DAL
G.Pickens
1,311
429
J.Goff
DET
A.St. Brown
1,213
660
J.Love
GB
R.Doubs
1,122
819
That made my decision. Drake Maye is on the first team. Matthew Stafford is on the second team.
Running Back 1: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Running Back 2: Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Here are some stats for the top three running backs through Week 17. We’ve got DYAR here for both rushing and receiving, each team’s rank in ESPN run block win rate, FTN’s avoided tackle rate and RYOE (rushing yards over expected) per carry from NFL Next Gen Stats. (All three backs had terrible games in Week 18 but we’re ignoring that here.)
Player
Team
Run
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Total
DYAR
RBWR
Rk
AVT%
RYOE
J.Taylor
IND
366
84
450
7
32.7%
+0.73
C.McCaffrey
SF
37
398
435
12
20.8%
-0.50
B.Robinson
ATL
167
265
432
27
34.2%
+1.02
As you can see, Christian McCaffrey compares very well to Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson in total value, but he had a terrible year as a runner. I like Bijan Robinson the best here because I think the numbers make it clear he did the most to produce on his own without the help of his blockers. I put Jonathan Taylor second on my ballot. However, it turns out there is a place where I can honor CMC as well…
All-Purpose 1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
All-Purpose 2: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
So, they added a 13th spot on the offensive ballot this year called “All-Purpose.” For the record, let me state that I do not like this idea. I do not like the idea of a position that really isn’t a position. A couple years ago when we started producing snap count lists and defining positions for the AP voters, the whole point was that nobody should make the All-Pro at two different positions. Now you have this spot where you can have players make the All-Pro team at two different positions again. We were told “It should recognize do-it-all players who excel in multiple ways — running, receiving, blocking.” But if you are the top all-purpose running back in the league, aren’t you also the top running back in the league? It doesn’t make sense to me.
Originally my plan was to just vote for the same two running backs here that I voted for at the running back position. Then I realized that this would be my opportunity to give an accolade to Christian McCaffrey even though he wasn’t as good as Bijan Robinson or Jonathan Taylor as a runner. So I put CMC first and Bijan Robinson second.
Fullback 1: Alec Ingold, Dolphins
Fullback 2: Patrick Ricard, Ravens
Look, what are you going to do about Kyle Juszczyk, who is playing a completely different role than all the other fullbacks? How much is his receiving worth compared to everyone else’s blocking? We ran a query showing the run DVOA for teams that used fullbacks, with and without the fullback on the field. Surprisingly, there were only three teams that had a higher run DVOA with the fullback. In order, they were the Ravens, the Dolphins, and the Vikings (C.J. Ham). I made a decision to honor blocking more than receiving. I did want to account for both, and Patrick Ricard doesn’t have a reception this season, so Alec Ingold became my first-team fullback and Ricard goes to the second team. (Ricard ended up finally catching a pass in Week 18 but I stuck with Ingold as my top guy.)
Wide Receiver 1: Puka Nacua, Rams; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks; George Pickens, Cowboys
Wide Receiver 2: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions; Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals; Chris Olave, Saints
The first two names here are very easy to choose. For the third spot on my first team, I went with George Pickens, who is fourth behind Amon-Ra St. Brown in Route DYAR but far ahead of him in standard DYAR. There’s a little bit of an eye test thing there as well, as Pickens and his outstanding catches really stood out to me this season. St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase are third and fifth in Route DYAR, and then there’s a gap before we get to a pack of guys who are all close to each other. Three of those players had good quarterbacks: CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott, Davante Adams with Matthew Stafford, and Stefon Diggs with Drake Maye. The fourth player was Chris Olave. He overcame mediocre quarterbacking to put up big numbers this year, so he’s my final choice for the second team.
Tight End 1: Trey McBride, Cardinals
Tight End 2: George Kittle, 49ers
The hard thing here was deciding how many games played was the line between whether or not I considered someone for the All-Pro team. I mean no disrespect to Eagles fans, but I decided that George Kittle played enough (11 games) but Lane Johnson didn’t quite (10 games).
Left Tackle 1: Dion Dawkins, Bills
Left Tackle 2: Garett Bolles, Broncos
For offensive line positions, I used a combination of ESPN’s win rate stats and SIS Total Points, plus some eye test and word of mouth and trusting the opinion of offensive line expert Brandon Thorn.
Dion Dawkins ranks first in SIS Total Points among left tackles. ESPN has him second among all tackles in pass block win rate and 12th in run block win rate. Garett Bolles is third among left tackles in SIS Total Points (behind Dawkins and Jordan Mailata) and ESPN has him 11th in pass block win rate and 19th in run block win rate. The word of mouth/eye test is very strong with Bolles and with Trent Williams, and I had to leave one of them off my team.
Left Guard 1: Joe Thuney, Bears
Left Guard 2: Peter Skoronski, Titans
Joe Thuney leads all offensive linemen in SIS Total Points and leads all guards in ESPN pass block win rate. He is fourth among guards in run block win rate. Peter Skoronski is only average in run block win rate but he ranks fifth among guards in pass block win rate and third among left guards in SIS Total Points (behind Thuney and David Edwards of the Bills).
Center 1: Creed Humphrey, Chiefs
Center 2: Connor McGovern, Bills
Zach Frazier of the Steelers leads all centers in SIS Total Points but Creed Humphrey is second and Connor McGovern is tied for third. ESPN pass block win rate puts Humphrey first and McGovern third. Run block win rate has McGovern fourth and Humphrey 10th. There wasn’t room on my team for Tyler Linderbaum of the Ravens or Aaron Brewer of the Dolphins; Brewer had a breakout season but the stats weren’t quite there to back up the reputation.
Right Guard 1: Quinn Meinerz, Broncos
Right Guard 2: Jonah Jackson, Bears
This was the toughest of the offensive line positions. I will admit I picked Meinerz more on reputation than on stats from this season. The Broncos obviously have a great offensive line overall; Meinerz was eighth among guards in ESPN run block win rate, above average in pass block win rate, but was not one of the top guards in SIS Total Points. Jonah Jackson got a lot of accolades for his first season in Chicago, finishing third among guards in pass block win rate. For what it’s worth, the top right guards in SIS Total Points are guys without the same reputation or the same standing in the ESPN blocking stats: Daniel Faalele of the Ravens and O’Cyrus Torrence of the Bills.
Right Tackle 1: Penei Sewell, Lions
Right Tackle 2: Darnell Wright, Bears
The main question here was whether 10 games was enough to put Lane Johnson on my team. You can argue it either way. It may be that it was easier for me to do George Kittle with 11 games because he has “total stats” that are higher than players who had 16 or 17 games, whereas with Lane Johnson you’re talking about vibes and reputation and rate stats. Anyway, I decided to go in a different direction. Darnell Wright and Penei Sewell are the top two right tackles in SIS Total Points. Darnell Wright was fourth in pass block win rate, but Sewell was surprisingly mediocre in the ESPN blocking stats. Still, I’m sorry to get un-stats-like for a second here, but he’s Penei freakin’ Sewell. The whole Lions offense runs through him.
Defense
Edge Rusher 1: Myles Garrett, Browns; Micah Parsons, Packers; Will Anderson Jr., Texans
Edge Rusher 2: Nik Bonitto, Broncos; Brian Burns, Giants; Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
This year, the AP had us vote for three edge rushers and two linebackers instead of two edge rushers and three linebackers. Like the “All-Purpose” position on offense, I am not a big fan of this change. I understand that we want to reward a lot of good, big-name edge rushers but most teams do not play three edge rushers at a time. They do play three linebackers at a time in base defense. Teams may play more nickel than base, but most of them do play some base. I like the idea of a 12-man roster for All-Pro that can play either base or nickel.
I’m going to be lazy and not list specific stats on all these players, but they’re all great edge rushers and I don’t think I’m going to get much pushback from readers on these choices. Danielle Hunter and Maxx Crosby were the toughest guys to leave off but Brian Burns (the last guy on for me) finished second in sacks and also had 13 pass tackle stops (pass tackles that prevent a successful gain despite a reception) which is a ton for an edge rusher! Andrew Van Ginkel was second among edges with eight. Nobody else had more than six.
Interior Lineman 1: Zach Allen, Broncos; Jeffery Simmons, Titans
Interior Lineman 2: Leonard Williams, Seahawks; Quinnen Williams, Cowboys
This is somewhat about feel, not just stats, and there were a lot of good defensive tackles this year who deserved consideration including Jalen Redmond of the Vikings and Derrick Brown of the Panthers. But a few stats: Zach Allen led all players in QB knockdowns this season. Jeffery Simmons led all interior linemen in sacks. Quinnen Williams was fourth in ESPN pass rush win rate among interior linemen and second in run stop win rate. Leonard Williams was an integral part of the top defense in the league and made his average run tackle after a gain of just 1.9 yards.
Linebacker 1: Jordyn Brooks, Dolphins; Jack Campbell, Lions
Linebacker 2: Ernest Jones IV, Seahawks; Foyesade Oluokun, Jaguars
Jack Campbell led all linebackers in SIS Total Points, with a big gap between him and the rest of the league. Jordyn Brooks led all linebackers in tackles and in percentage of team plays, and was tied for second in the NFL in defeats. I did consider not putting him on the team because he had a terrible coverage DVOA, but I don’t know quite how much to trust linebacker coverage DVOA until I look at it further. I looked at the plays considered and it was a lot of zone coverage, not man coverage. That seems like more of a failure of the whole defense and not just Brooks.
Foyesade Oluokun led the NFL with 33 pass tackle stops and nobody else in the league had more than 26. I picked him over teammate Devin Lloyd and his early-season interceptions. Ernest Jones IV also had five picks, just like Lloyd, with better numbers overall.
Outside Cornerback 1: Jamel Dean, Buccaneers; Derek Stingley Jr., Texans
Outside Cornerback 2: Donte Jackson, Chargers; Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles
This is a combination of my coverage DVOA metric and reputation/eye test. I’ve written a couple times about how good Jamel Dean has been for the Buccaneers this year, leading all outside cornerbacks in coverage DVOA. Donte Jackson is second among outside cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. is fifth, and Quinyon Mitchell is seventh. Apologies that I had to leave off Montaric Brown of the Jaguars, who had an excellent coverage DVOA, and Pat Surtain II, who was “only” very good in coverage DVOA but is probably still the best cornerback in the league if you ask “who would you want on your defense in next week’s game?”
Slot Cornerback 1: Derwin James Jr., Chargers
Slot Cornerback 2: Cooper DeJean, Eagles
Sports Info Solutions put together snap counts for the AP voters to determine what positions we should use to vote for specific players. It went in two steps for defensive backs. First, the total of snaps at cornerback and slot cornerback was compared to the total at safety, linebacker, and edge. (Someone like Nick Emmanwori moves all over the place.) More snaps at the first two positions meant you were a cornerback, and more snaps at the latter three positions made you a safety. Then if the player had more snaps at cornerback and slot cornerback, they were assigned to the position where they had more snaps.
If you do this, you get Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. as a slot cornerback. He lined up at cornerback positions more than other positions this year. He wasn’t the only player rostered as a safety to do this. Javon Bullard of the Packers, Jalen Pitre of the Texans, and Emmanwori were also voted on as slot cornerbacks.
If James is a slot cornerback, then he was the best slot cornerback in the NFL this season. James led all defensive backs with at least 200 coverage snaps in my coverage DVOA metric, and his ability to play multiple positions is key to Jesse Minter’s scheme in Los Angeles.
I went with Cooper DeJean for the other spot.
Safety 1: Kyle Hamilton, Ravens; Talanoa Hufanga, Broncos
Safety 2: Grant Delpit, Browns; Jessie Bates III, Falcons
Grant Delpit and Kyle Hamilton were the top two safeties in the league in coverage DVOA. The Ravens defense is built around Hamilton’s skill set. Hamilton (4.0) and Delpit (4.2) also made their average run tackle closer to the line of scrimmage than any other starting safeties. Talanoa Hufanga was tied for the lead among safeties in SIS Total Points (with Kevin Byard III of the Bears) and was third in the league among safeties in how often he was involved with a defensive play for his team. Jessie Bates III didn’t lead any specific stats but he’s very good and I feel comfortable with him as my fourth guy.
Special Teams
Kicker 1: Will Reichard, Vikings
Kicker 2: Nick Folk, Jets
This was going to be a long thing about how Jason Myers led the league in kickoff value and that matters, and then Myers went out in Week 18 and shanked two field goals and put a kickoff out of bounds. So much for that. This leaves Will Reichard as the top kicker in my values if we combine field goals and kickoffs, with Nick Folk second. (Reichard was better than Folk on kickoffs, enough to make up Folk’s small advantage on field goals.)
Punter 1: Austin McNamara, Jets
Punter 2: Michael Dickson, Seahawks
Michael Dickson was slighly ahead of Austin McNamara in gross punt value, which looks at the value of every punt if we assume an average return. However, McNamara was far, far ahead of Dickson if we look at net punt value. Yes, most of that is better coverage by the other Seahawks, but I have to assume that at least a bit of it has to do with things like hang time that I am not measuring. So McNamara gets the nod for the first team, Dickson for the second team.
Kick Returner 1: Kene Nwangwu, Jets
Kick Returner 2: Ray Davis, Bills
Ray Davis leads in my kick return value with 11.3 points of field position value, but he did that on 30 returns. Kene Nwangwu is second with 10.6 points of field position value on just 18 returns.
Punt Returner 1: Marcus Jones, Patriots
Punt Returner 2: Chimere Dike, Titans
These two were very close. Chimere Dike went into Week 18 with 13.1 points of field position value on 22 returns. Marcus Jones went into Week 18 with 12.9 points of field position on 21 returns. Maybe it’s that I watch the Patriots every week and not the Titans, but Jones just seems a little scarier to me.
Special Teams Ace 1: Tommy Eichenberg, Raiders
Special Teams Ace 2: Devon Key, Broncos
Devon Key or the Broncos and Del’Shawn Phillips of the Chargers each had 24 special teams plays by my numbers. Tommy Eichenberg was third with 21 special teams plays. However, 16 of Eichenberg’s plays were “stops,” in that they stopped a return short of an average expected value. Key and Phillips each had only 13 stops. Eichenberg also excelled on kickoffs for a Raiders team that didn’t kick off very much. He’s my guy. (As an added bonus, Key and Eichenberg each had an additional two plays in Week 18 while Phillips did not have a play.)
Long Snapper 1: Andrew DePaola, Vikings
Long Snapper 2: Ross Matiscik, Jaguars
These are the same two guys as last year, as recommended by former NFL long snapper Pat Mannelly.