Jan. 11, 2026, 11:33 p.m. ET

The first round of the NFL playoffs wraps up Monday when the No. 5 seed Houston Texans (12-5) visit the No. 4 seed Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7). Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN / ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s Texans vs. Steelers odds and tab the 5 best prop bets to win among SportsbookWire’s expert NFL picks and predictions for this AFC Wild Card game.

The Texans used their No. 1-ranked defense to end the regular season on a 9-game winning streak. They closed the regular season with a 38-30 home win over the Indianapolis Colts as 9.5-point favorites with the Over (37.5) cashing. Prior to that game, the Texans had not allowed more than 21 points in 7 straight games.

The Steelers won the AFC North in Week 18, beating the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs with the Over (42.5) cashing. Ravens K Tyler Loop missed a potential game-winning field goal as time expired. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers passed for 294 yards and a TD to return to the postseason.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!Best Texans vs. Steelers prop bets

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:13 p.m. ET.

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers OVER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (-105)

Rodgers has not thrown an interception in his last 7 games. The Texans picked off 19 passes as a team in the regular season. They had defensive takeaways in 15 of their 17 regular-season games and ended the season with takeaways in 5 straight.

Texans defense/special teams ANYTIME TD (+550)

The Texans had 5 defensive TDs in 2025. At the rate the Texans force turnovers (16 in their 9-game winning streak, defensive scores are inevitable. The Steelers fumbled 14 times this season. With the fierce pass rush of DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, a strip sack that gets returned for a touchdown is foreseeable, and the odds make the bet worth making.

Texans K Ka’imi Fairburn OVER 7.5 KICKING POINTS (-135)

I predict a 20-17 Texans win in this game, which means 8 kicking points for Fairburn. He has scored at least 8 kicking points in 9 straight games.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud OVER 3.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (+105)

While Stroud is not exactly a running QB, he is willing to move. He had 4 or more rushing attempts in 8 of his 14 games played this season and had at least 4 in 3 of the final 4 games, and with plus-money odds, it makes it a good bet.

Texans TE Dalton Schultz 41+ RECEIVING YARDS (-118)

Schultz reached 41 receiving yards 8 times in his last 13 games. He did it twice in his final 4 games.

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