The Buffalo Bills survived a crazy wild-card game on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as Josh Allen & Co. emerged victorious in a 27-24 classic. The Bills closed as a 1.5-point underdog after being favored for much of the week, and the game stayed just under the total of 51.5. Despite multiple injuries and big hits taken during the game, Allen threw for 273 yards and touchdown (and rushed for two more TDs), while posting a QBR of 87.2.
The Bills will head to Denver to take on the Broncos on Saturday, and oddsmakers aren’t giving the Broncos much respect as a rested No. 1 seed.
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Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at BetMGM at the Broncos, which if the line holds would mark only the third time since the NFL’s divisional round was created in 1970 that a No. 1 seed was an underdog.
The other two?
In 1971, the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Vikings were 1-point home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys; the Cowboys won 20-12.
In 2017, the Nick Foles-led No. 1-seeded Philadelphia Eagles were 2.5-point home underdogs against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons; the Eagles prevailed 15-10.
Oddsmakers haven’t been particularly impressed with the Broncos all season, despite a gaudy 14-3 record, as Denver went just 7-9-1 against the spread. Denver frequently played down to its level of competition, going 10-2 straight up as a favorite, but a putrid 3-9 ATS. Bo Nix was 8-0 ATS as a favorite in his rookie season.
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Yahoo Sports asked two oddsmakers to reveal their NFL power ratings before the start of the postseason and both had the Bills (third in one oddsmakers’ power ratings, fifth in the other) well above the Broncos. Denver wasn’t in the top five in either oddsmaker’s power ratings.
To wit, the New England Patriots (+230) are currently the favorites to win the AFC at BetMGM, while the Bills and Broncos are tied at +240. Denver hasn’t played in an AFC championship game since its Super Bowl-winning run in 2016.
The Bills did struggle this season when playing at a rest disadvantage against their opponent, going 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS). The Broncos only had two games with a rest advantage this season, going 1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS in them.
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The Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in the postseason in Allen’s career before Saturday’s victory in Jacksonville. Buffalo ousted Denver from the postseason last year in the wild-card round, winning 31-7 in Buffalo as 8.5-point home favorites.