Texans at Patriots best prop bets in AFC divisional round

Updated Jan. 17, 2026, 9:58 p.m. ET

The No. 5 seed Houston Texans (12-5) visit the No. 2 seed New England Patriots (14-3) Sunday in an AFC Divisional Round game. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, is at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s Texans vs. Patriots odds and tab the 5 best prop bets to win among SportsbookWire’s expert NFL picks and predictions.

Houston kept rolling in the AFC Wild Card round, extending its winning streak to 10 games with a 30-6 rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Texans, who have not lost since Nov. 2, covered as 2.5-point road favorites while the under (38.5) cashed. Houston’s defense smothered QB Aaron Rodgers, limiting him to 146 passing yards with an interception and a lost fumble returned for TDs. Texasn QB C.J. Stroud threw for 250 yards and a score with 144 yards and the TD going to WR Christian Kirk.

New England stayed hot in the Wild Card round, winning and covering its fourth straight game with a 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots covered as 3.5-point home favorites as the under (45.5) cashed. New England’s defense dominated the line of scrimmage and sacked QB Justin Herbert 6 times. QB Drake Maye threw for 268 yards (1 TD, 1 INT), and RB Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 128 yards from scrimmage.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!Best Texans at Patriots prop bets

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:03 p.m. ET.

Patriots QB Drake Maye OVER 13.5 LONGEST RUSH (-120)

In his playoff debut, Maye handled constant pressure, getting sacked 5 times but also leaning on his legs to extend plays. He ran 10 times for 66 yards, highlighted by a 37-yard scramble. Maye now faces another aggressive front featuring DEs Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, which should force him out of the pocket. He has cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 games and will need to run to sustain drives.

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS: Best ML, ATS and O/U betsTexans RB Woody Marks OVER 51.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)

Marks has topped 70 rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games, including a 112-yard effort against Pittsburgh last week. With WR Nico Collins sidelined, Houston should lean more heavily on the ground game. Marks has cleared this rushing number in 5 of his last 7 games. While New England was solid against the run, it still allowed 101.7 rushing yards per game during the regular season, leaving room for Marks to deliver.

Texans K Ka’imi Fairbairn OVER 7.5 KICKING POINTS (+100)

Last week marked just the second time in his past 13 games that Fairbairn failed to reach 8 points. With Houston missing big-play threat Collins, drives are more likely to stall in scoring range. New England allowed only 18.8 points per game during the regular season and held the Chargers to 3 points last week, emphasizing red-zone defense over explosive plays. That approach should create multiple field-goal opportunities, putting Fairbairn in a strong position to clear this number.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud UNDER 9.5 RUSHING YARDS (-118)

Stroud remains a pocket-first quarterback, and his rushing production continues to reflect that approach. He has gone under this number in 7 straight games, including last week’s Wild Card win, with most scrambles ending quickly. New England’s defense strengthens the case, as it ranks among the league’s best at limiting rushing lanes and yards per carry. With little designed run volume and limited elusiveness, expecting a sudden spike in rushing output is unnecessary in this matchup.

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-135)

Stevenson continues to reestablish himself as a key piece of New England’s offense. While rookie RB TreyVón Henderson provides explosiveness, Stevenson remains the trusted option for Maye, especially in pass protection, keeping him on the field in critical situations. Stevenson has cleared this receiving prop in 6 straight games, including a 75-yard effort in the Wild Card win. Houston allowed 31.7 receiving yards per game to running backs this season, and Maye may lean on checkdowns with Houston’s pass rush closing in.

The Huddle has been turning players like you into winners for over 25 years. Custom fantasy football rankings, sleepers and tools are just a click away. Subscribe now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

Texans at Patriots best prop bets in AFC divisional round

Tags: