The New England Patriots are a real threat to reach Super Bowl LX in February, but for that to happen, they’ll need to first take care of business in the AFC Wild Card Round.
The Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021 after winning the AFC East division title with a 14-3 record. They earned the No. 2 seed in the conference, setting up a playoff showdown against the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Gillette Stadium (8 p.m. ET on NBC).
It’s a matchup highlighted by two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the favorite to win league MVP after a tremendous second season. Justin Herbert is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the sport and led the Chargers to their highest win total since 2018.
Which team has the advantage in this Patriots-Chargers matchup?
Check out our tale of the tape below:
Recent head-to-head
The Chargers have won the last two head-to-head matchups, including a 40-7 victory at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 of last season. But obviously the Patriots team the Chargers will play in the Wild Card Round is much different and much better than the 2024 squad.
The Patriots have also owned the Chargers in the playoffs throughout the 21st century with a 3-0 record. The last meeting was a 41-28 win for the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Divisional Round. It was the most recent home playoff victory for the Patriots.
The last time the Chargers franchise defeated the Patriots in a postseason game was the 1963 AFL Championship. The then-San Diego Chargers won that matchup 51-10.
Key stats to know
Here’s an overview of how the Patriots and Chargers compare in several stat categories, as well as how Drake Maye’s stats compare to Justin Herbert’s:
The Patriots ranked fifth in points scored with 28.8 per game, almost six points more than the 17th-ranked Chargers at 21.6 per game. Both offenses are effective on key downs. The Patriots ranked seventh in third-down percentage (42.6) and No. 1 in fourth-down percentage (75 percent), while the Chargers ranked third in third-down percentage (46.8) and 18th in fourth-down percentage (56.3).
New England was one of six teams to allow fewer than 20 points per game (18.8), while Los Angeles just missed the cut at 20 points allowed per contest. The Chargers defense did rank sixth in turnovers forced, including the third-most interceptions with 19. L.A. also was one of 13 teams to tally 40-plus sacks. New England was not one of them.
Notable injuries
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
Herbert had surgery to repair a fracture on his left (non-throwing) hand on Dec. 2. He did not miss any games until Sunday’s regular season finale against the Broncos. Herbert was listed with a left hand/NIR-rest designation on the Week 18 injury report.
He played four games after the surgery and threw at least one interception in three of those matchups. He also threw for multiple touchdowns in only one of those games. Is the star quarterback at 100 percent health? It’s a story worth monitoring throughout the week.
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Justin Herbert had surgery on his non-throwing hand in early December.
Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers
We know the Chargers love to run the ball, and Omarion Hampton was a huge part of that game plan when healthy. But the rookie out of North Carolina missed eight total games, including Week 18, with an ankle injury.
Since returning on Dec. 8 against the Eagles after a seven-game absence, Hampton averaged 57.8 yards per game with a total of two touchdowns in four matchups from Week 14 through Week 17. If healthy, Hampton should get the majority of the carries Sunday.
Rashawn Slater (OT) and Joe Alt (OT), Chargers
The Chargers are without both of their starting tackles. Slater suffered a season-ending injury in training camp and Alt was lost for the year in November.
Jared Wilson, LG, Patriots
Wilson has played well as the team’s starting left guard in his rookie season, but he missed four games, including the last two. Ben Brown has done an admirable job stepping in for Wilson, though.
Khyiris Tonga, DL, Patriots
Tonga missed three games total, including the last two with a foot injury. He earned the third-highest Pro Football Focus pass rush grade and highest run defense grade among Patriots interior defenders, so it would be a nice boost for New England if he’s good to go Sunday.
Robert Spillane, LB, Patriots
Spillane led the Patriots with 97 tackles despite missing the last four games with an ankle injury. The 30-year-old veteran ranked 14th among all NFL linebackers in PFF’s grades, including the eighth-best run defense grade of any linebacker. It’s not a coincidence the Patriots’ run defense struggled in the last quarter of the regular season while he was sidelined.
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Robert Spillane is one of the Patriots’ best run defenders.
Patriots’ keys to victory
Establish the run game
We know Drake Maye is capable of dominating through the air. He put up MVP-caliber stats and ranked No. 1 in QB rating. But to win in the playoffs, you can’t be one-dimensional on offense. The Patriots have to establish the running game to make a deep postseason run.
And there are reasons to be optimistic they can accomplish that goal. New England has averaged 168.6 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry over the last five games. Veteran running back Rhamondre Stevenson has played fantastic over that span. He finished the regular season with a touchdown in three straight games (including 131 yards and two scores in Week 18 alone).
Rookie TreVeyon Henderson is a home-run threat, as evidenced by his four rushing touchdowns of 50-plus yards on the season.
An effective rushing attack would take a lot of pressure off Maye. The Chargers ranked 18th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.4).
Consistent pass rush
The Patriots don’t have a dominant pass rush. They earned a 64.2 pass rush grade (19th in the league) from Pro Football Focus in the regular season. However, the Chargers’ offensive line has been their biggest weakness all season and the Patriots could potentially exploit it.
The Chargers received PFF’s second-worst pass block grade (49.9) of any team. Los Angeles also allowed the fourth-most sacks (56) and ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate, per ESPN.
If defensive lineman Milton Williams and linebacker Harold Landry III are healthy enough to play Sunday, we could see the Patriots put enough pressure on Justin Herbert to make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
Chargers’ keys to victory
Pressure Maye and force a mistake
Maye is the most accurate quarterback in the league. He ranked No. 1 with a 71.9 completion percentage. If you don’t pressure him, he will eventually find an open target. In the Patriots’ three losses, Maye threw at least one interception and was sacked at least three times. The best way to rattle a young QB in his first career playoff game is to win the line of scrimmage and hit him as often as possible.
The Chargers allowed the fifth-fewest pass yards per game (180.9) and ranked fifth in opposing QB completion percentage (60.8), so they are capable of shutting down a quality passing attack. And as mentioned above, their defense had the second-most interceptions (19). They need to force a turnover or two to have a good chance to win.
Justin Herbert saves the day
The Patriots have a top-five quarterback and one of the highest-scoring offenses. The Chargers will need to keep pace, and that responsibility largely falls on Herbert.
He did not play particularly well in the second half of the season with only one 300-yard game and a total of 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions over his last nine games. He threw at least one interception in five of his last six games.
Can Herbert put the Chargers on his back if the run game is struggling and/or the Patriots jump out to an early lead?
Prediction
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Drake Maye is among the top MVP candidates.
The Chargers have an awful playoff history and Herbert has not proven he’s capable of stepping up on the big stage. He is 0-2 with a 52.0 completion percentage, two touchdown passes and four interceptions in his playoff career.
All four of those interceptions came in an embarrassing 32-12 Wild Card loss to the Texans last season. Herbert and the Chargers also blew a 27-point lead in a Wild Card defeat to the Jaguars back in 2022.
The Patriots have more talent and a better coaching staff than the Chargers. New England also has homefield advantage. And while the Patriots do have a lot of young players at key positions, they also benefit from several veterans with Super Bowl-winning experience (Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, etc.).
Head coach Mike Vrabel is no stranger to the playoffs, either, as a three-time champion from his playing days. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels also has six rings as a coach.
The Patriots aren’t likely to blow out the Chargers, but they should win this game and reach the Divisional Round for the first time since 2018.
Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 17