My divisional-round straight-up picks went 3-1, bringing my postseason straight-up record to 7-3. I’m looking to add two more wins to that total in this week’s conference championship selections.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
Here is how my divisional round picks fared, along with my current season record:
Overall picks to win: 3-1 (191-90-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 3-1 (115-71-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 0-0 (76-19)
Overall to cover the spread: 2-2 (142-130-9)
Cover-the-spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 2-2 (115-105-8)
Cover-the-spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 0-0 (27-25-1)
Now let’s go over the conference championship picks.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
New England Patriots (-5) at Denver Broncos
Take every area of this contest that I track, except the passing game, and it’s about as even a matchup as one can get. Both of these clubs have very good defensive metrics, so there is no advantage in either direction on that side of the ball. The Patriots have some of the worst special teams numbers over the past four weeks, giving Denver an edge there, but the Patriots cancel that edge with their rush-game advantage. The Broncos have wide receiver injuries in addition to the Bo Nix injury, but the home-field advantage factor zeroes the injury deficit out.
That leaves Drake Maye and the Patriots’ aerial attack versus Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos’ passing game as the deciding factor. Sean Payton is creative and will get the most out of what he has available. That should include a large percentage of short passes for a Denver offense that had the third-most passes at that route depth level this season.
Dink and dunk throws do help provide a Super Bowl path for the Broncos, but Maye is a bona fide MVP candidate who ranked second in vertical YPA this year. That long-distance production is more than enough of a factor for me to give the win and spread picks to New England.
Pick to win: New England (Confidence level: 5)
Pick to cover the spread: New England (Confidence level: 4)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
The Seahawks were by far the most dominant team in the divisional round, while the Rams needed many things to go their way to get past Chicago. That’s why it is something of a surprise that the betting public has the Seahawks as only a 2.5-point home favorite. Those bettors are expecting this game to follow the regular-season form, in which the two games between these clubs were decided by a total of three points.
The metrics also agree with this being an incredibly close matchup. Close does not mean equal, however. The Rams have the advantage in pass blocking and overall pass-game production. Seattle is the better rushing team, but may lose some of that edge since Zach Charbonnet was lost for the year with a torn ACL in the divisional round win. The Seahawks also have rush defense and pass coverage pluses that the Rams cannot match.
Combine those defensive stat advantages with Seattle being the home team, and I’ll take the Seahawks for the win and a very close cover.
Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 1)