Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for the AFC Championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.
This AFC Championship is a weird kind of heavyweight fight, because both teams earned the stage the hard way. Denver is 14–3, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and Mile High is built to make timing feel fragile. New England is 14–3 too, the No. 2 seed, and Drake Maye (QB) has already graduated into MVP-finalist gravity in year two. The Broncos’ season was supposed to be a clean ascent behind Bo Nix’s calm, and now it’s a survival drill. Jarrett Stidham (QB) starting on the biggest stage & snap-count of his life changes the entire scoring geometry. Denver’s offense stops being a growth story and becomes a “don’t blink first” operation. So the game tightens into one question: can the Patriots stack stress until Stidham cracks, or can Denver’s defense and field position keep this in a phone booth long enough for one Sutton moment to swing a title? Below is my prediction for the AFC Championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The season-long math says New England has been the cleaner offense, even if both defenses lived in the top tier. The Patriots sit at 0.088 EPA/play on offense versus Denver at 0.031, which is a real possession edge. In other words, the Patriots have been better at turning normal downs into points, not just highlights. Defensively, both teams were stout all year, with New England at -0.071 EPA/play allowed and Denver at -0.066. This is two defenses that can win drives in the margins, not just on third down.
The current-state split, though, is the headline shift in phases. And it’s the kind of phase shift that wins titles—when one unit gets hotter while the other cools off at the wrong time. Over the last five weeks, New England’s offense has dipped to -0.165 EPA/play, but its defense has vaulted to -0.338 EPA/play allowed. That’s a Patriots profile I respect in the postseason: shaky offense, suffocating defense, and a quarterback talented enough to steal points anyway. Denver’s offense has hovered near neutral at 0.004 EPA/play, while its defense has slid to 0.084 EPA/play allowed. That defensive slippage is the real tell, because Denver’s whole pitch is “we dictate the terms.” Early downs frame the entire fight: New England’s offense is +0.109 EPA/play on first and second down, and Denver’s defense allows -0.067 with a 63.2% early-down success rate. That’s why the recent offensive drop still looks so weird to me—Maye’s been the likely runner-up for MVP, so an offense dipping into the red like this is a real “what changed?” moment. Maye needs to keep New England out of third-and-long gravity, or Denver will force a field-position grind, no matter their starter at quarterback.
Quarterback and trench math is why the Patriots still read like the sharper bet. Drake Maye has been an MV(statistically)P(ositive) engine all season at +0.200 EPA/dropback. That’s the kind of season where the league starts treating him like a weekly inevitability, not a pleasant surprise. He also punishes heat, posting +0.343 EPA/dropback versus the blitz. So if Denver’s whole plan is to speed him up, I actually like the Patriots’ answers—spacing, quick decisions, and punished blitz angles. When the pocket stays clean, he’s elite at +0.512 EPA/dropback with a 76.3% completion rate. That’s “let him see it and he’ll carve it” efficiency. Protection has to cooperate, because New England’s pass-pro sack rate has climbed to 4.65% over the last six weeks. That’s the catch, and it’s the reason the offense falling off feels real instead of fluky.
Denver can absolutely stress that, generating pressure on 41.3% of dropbacks with a 9.7% sack rate. This front doesn’t just win; it makes quarterbacks feel the rush in their bones. The late wrinkle matters, though: Denver’s pressure-to-sack conversion has slid from 23.6% to 17.1% in its last six. That tells me teams have found ways to survive the initial wave, and that’s exactly where Maye’s poise can cash out. It keeps him alive in games where he shouldn’t be.
Stidham’s historical profile tilts harder, because pressure has been his recurring cliff. He’s been a pro since 2019, and he’s done the backup work for years. His tape has always been “fine when clean, shaky when the world caves in.” The live resmue is still thin, though: his last real sample was 76 dropbacks in 2023. He had 101 dropbacks in 2022, then basically nothing after. In 2023, he was -0.422 EPA/dropback under pressure and -0.168 versus the blitz. He also completed only 45.0% under pressure in 2023, which tells you how fast the floor can open. Against the blitz, the 43.8% completion rate is the flare gun. When he’s clean, he can function—+0.361 EPA/dropback from a clean pocket in 2023, and +0.287 in 2022. But he had one 2024 dropback and none in 2025, so this is a timing test, not a plug-and-play swap. If New England can turn even a few downs into stress snaps, Stidham’s (as-of-yet-totally-unknown) floor shows up fast. That’s why I want New England showing heat, rotating late, and forcing him to reset his feet. Stidham can steer a script; he breaks when the script does.
Over the last six weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) has given New England the cleanest answer button, with 3.23 yards after contact per carry and 14.1 yards after catch per reception. That’s playoff football utility—turn a bad look into five, turn a checkdown into a chain-mover. That’s how an offense survives a 41% pressure environment without living in third-and-long. Kayshon Boutte (WR) has been their explosive spark, sitting at 1.222 EPA/target with a 71.4% explosive reception rate in this window. That’s the kind of late-season emergence that changes how a defense can call the game, because now the Patriots have real “flip the field” juice. Hunter Henry (TE) has also been a high-leverage piece at 0.981 EPA/target with a 75.0% explosive rate, which is red-zone math wearing shoulder pads. When the postseason tightens, that “big body in the seams” role becomes a cheat code for sustaining drives. Stefon Diggs (WR) has brought volume, but his efficiency has been thinner, with 0 explosive catches and 0.456 EPA/target. That reads like a veteran winning in small spaces, not a guy ripping the top off a defense anymore. Maye’s legs still matter as a release valve, with a 35.7% rush first-down conversion rate on his scrambles. That’s also how you punish over-aggression—escape, steal a first, and make the pass rush feel pointless.
For Denver, the pass game has run through Nix-led (and now Nix-bereft) efficiency spikes, not volume comfort. Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) was Nix’s cleanest playoff weapon, with 1.022 EPA/target, a 100% catch rate, and a 50.0% explosive reception rate on his recent usage. But he’s only been back for one game, so I’m treating that efficiency as volatile, not bankable over four quarters of championship pressure, especially with a new quarterback. Courtland Sutton (WR) has still moved chains when he connects, with a 75.0% first-down conversion rate on catches, but the 44.4% catch rate adds volatility. That’s the Sutton experience: contested wins and drive-saving grabs, paired with stretches where the ball just doesn’t stick. Lil’Jordan Humphrey (WR/TE) has been pure leverage in small doses at 1.044 EPA/target with a touchdown. That’s the kind of player Denver will try to weaponize on a handful of sneaky “we practiced this all week” calls. R.J. Harvey (RB) gives Denver a checkdown path with 9.0 yards after catch per reception, which matters if Stidham has to get rid of it fast. And in a Stidham game, fast must be the whole survival plan.
Patriots vs. Broncos pick, best bet
Denver’s counter still deserves respect, because the defense can dictate down-and-distance and squeeze air out of drives. I’m not dismissing a Denver defense that’s built to win one snap at a time, especially at home in that environment. That 63.2% early-down defensive success rate is real, and it pairs perfectly with a crowd that can speed up protection calls. New England’s recent offensive profile has also carried real landmines, with a 10.9% negative play rate in the last six games. That’s the kind of stat that turns a better team into a nervous team in January. That’s how favorites fail covers without ever playing badly.
Denver also owns a field-position lane through punt returns, sitting at 14.1 yards per return. That’s the hidden-points weapon: one return, one short field, one cheap score that makes everything feel different. One short field can become the entire scoreboard in a low-total game. The rebuttal is that the quarterback change narrows Denver’s repeatable scoring paths. I can buy Denver manufacturing drives with scheme and field position; I struggle to buy them living in consistent downfield offense with this switch. Stidham’s pressure history invites the exact kind of drive-killing snaps that New England’s current defense has been manufacturing. And if the Patriots are forcing mistakes at this rate lately, this is the exact opponent you want.
So I’m still laying Patriots -3.5, with the total sitting at 43.5 and the market pricing New England as the sturdier side. I’m comfortable living with the hook because the quarterback delta is the cleanest leverage point on the slate. Over the last five weeks including the playoffs, this game has flipped into a strange identity swap. New England’s offense has slid to -0.165 EPA/play, which still feels shocking with Drake Maye (QB) in Year 2. But the Patriots’ defense has gone full vice grip at -0.338 EPA/play allowed, and that’s the kind of form that travels. Denver, meanwhile, has stayed basically neutral on offense lately (0.004 EPA/play), but the defense has bled efficiency in this same window (0.084 EPA/play allowed). That’s the momentum crux for me: New England is winning the stress snaps lately, while Denver’s best advantage on paper in current-state is the environment. But they’re trying to survive a quarterback emergency. And when the Broncos’ plan is built around pressure and field position, I can’t ignore their own recent finishing wobble up front, with pressure still huge but the close-outs sliding late.
This feels like a championship where one side is peaking in repeatable defense (New England) and the other can flip back to that life on a switch (Denver). But they’re also praying the altitude plus the rush can keep the game simple for Jarrett Stidham. My gut says that’s a thinner way to live for sixty minutes.
Patriots 23, Broncos 16.
Best bet: Patriots -3.5 (-115) at Broncos
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I’m riding Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ receiving yards at +125 because it matches the only sane way to play offense in this game. Denver’s whole identity is collapse-the-pocket math, and the numbers say they live there: 41.3% pressure on the season, 42.7% over the last six. That kind of heat doesn’t just create sacks, it creates checkdowns on schedule, and Stevenson is New England’s best checkdown because he turns contact into free yards. In this playoff window, he’s caught seven of eight targets for 86 yards, and the efficiency isn’t fluff. He’s at 14.1 yards after catch per reception lately, plus 0.455 EPA per target, which is basically a running back functioning like a slot on emergency calls. I also like the way this price plays against the defensive game plan. If Denver is forcing Maye to get the ball out, those yards have to go somewhere, and New England’s simple and violent touches are Stevenson screens, swings, and hot routes. Twenty-five is not a ceiling game, it’s a handful of completions plus one broken tackle. That’s the bet: the pressure arrives, Maye stays calm, and Stevenson cashes the outlet lane.
Best prop lean: Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ receiving yards (+125)
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