Blake Krass breaks down his best same game parlay for the AFC Championship Game between the Broncos and the Patriots.

The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET in Denver, Colorado.

The Patriots are listed as 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 42.5 points. Below is my preview, prediction and best same game parlay bet for the AFC Championship Game.

Broncos vs. Patriots prediction, preview

The Broncos are hosting the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. This game marks a changing of the guard in the AFC, as it is the first conference title game without Patrick Mahomes since the 2017-18 season. This is also a rematch of the 2016 AFC Championship Game, where Peyton Manning’s Broncos beat Tom Brady’s Patriots in Denver, then went on to win the Super Bowl. However, this game will look much different. Rather than featuring the two best quarterbacks of this century, it will feature sophomore phenom Drake Maye and Jarrett Stidham making his fifth career start.

Stidham is stepping in after Bo Nix got injured on the final drive of the game against the Bills. This is by no means the equivalent of the Bills losing Josh Allen, or even the Patriots losing Drake Maye. This Denver team is built on its defense, strong offensive line play and Sean Payton’s brilliant offensive mind. Bo Nix made some big throws down the stretch against the Bills, but during the regular season, he ranked 18th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. The Broncos went 14-3 in the regular season with that level of quarterback play. So, if Stidham can play like a league-average NFL quarterback for one game, the Broncos definitely have a good chance to win.

Jarrett Stidham has not gotten much of an opportunity over his NFL career, with just four starts to his name. However, he has performed reasonably well in those games. Stidham also made those starts on some terrible teams. On Sunday, he will be playing behind an elite offensive line, with an elite coach calling his plays and he has comfort in this system that he has now been in for a couple of years. When Sean Payton came to Denver, Stidham was his first-ever free agent signing. Payton handpicked Stidham to be the backup to Russell Wilson, then signed him to an extension to keep him as Bo Nix’s backup. Surely, Payton never envisioned this scenario for Stidham, but he clearly has confidence in him to execute this offense.

Broncos vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay

My best same-game parlay bet for the AFC Championship Game is the Broncos full-game spread +4.5 and first-quarter spread +0.5. It is difficult to win on the road in the postseason in the NFL. Home favorites of four points or more in the postseason are 0-9 ATS in the last 50 years. It’s difficult to win on the road anywhere, but arguably nowhere is harder than Denver. The Broncos always have a fantastic crowd, there will be winter weather and the elevation is always an edge. Denver is 18-5 SU at home in the postseason, including 6-1 SU and ATS in AFC Championship Games at home.

The Broncos have an elite defense and should give Drake Maye problems. New England has been at home for each of its first two games, and Drake Maye has still really struggled. The Patriots have been the beneficiary of two horrific quarterback performances from Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud so they’ve gotten away with it. Maye threw an interception in each of those games and, even worse, fumbled six times, losing three of the six. The Denver defense will get after Maye and should force turnovers. That will set up short fields to make life easier on Jarrett Stidham. The Broncos should be able to keep this game close and cover the 4.5-point spread.

When it comes to the first quarter, the Patriots should be conservative early in this game. This is a hostile road environment against a team with a backup quarterback making his first start of the season. If Mike Vrabel were smart, which he is, he would start this game with a conservative gameplan to avoid mistakes from Maye. Vrabel should sit back and wait to see if Stidham makes any early errors that New England can capitalize on, rather than forcing it when this crowd is at peak noise.

Home underdogs in conference championship games are 4-1 ATS in the first quarter in the Super Bowl era. Against the eight best defenses that they faced this season, the Patriots were just 2-6 ATS in the first quarter. They only scored more than a touchdown once, including three shutouts, one of those coming in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers. Denver should contain the New England offense early, and could get an early score of their own on a scripted drive designed to maximize Stidham’s abilities. At the very least, this game should be tied at the end of the first quarter.

Best Same Game Parlay Bet: Broncos +4.5 & Broncos 1Q +0.5 (+162)