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Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard.
If you aren’t the New England Patriots or Seattle Seahawks, the 2026 NFL offseason has essentially begun. So, while the NFL free agency market doesn’t officially open until March 11th, it’s never too early to start speculating.
Probably the second biggest free-agency decision for the Indianapolis Colts (Daniel Jones would be first) is wide receiver Alec Pierce. Drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft out of the University of Cincinnati, Pierce’s initial four-year term has come to an end and now he’s free to test the waters.
Will the Colts keep him? Or will they let a valuable offensive piece walk out the door, leaving a relatively bare cupboard at wide receiver?
Bill Barnwell of ESPN examined Pierce’s market value and compared him to Tutu Atwell and Dyami Brown.
“If speedy receivers who barely see the field are worth $10 million deals, Pierce’s pending free agency poses an interesting question: What if a speedy receiver who was actually good hit the market?” Barnwell asks. “Pierce narrowly topped 1,000 yards for the first time as a pro with a 132-yard effort against the Texans in Week 18, but his breakout wasn’t really a product of better quarterback play in 2025. His rate of off-target potential receptions was roughly the same in 2024 (23.5%) and 2025 (23.8%).”
The Indianapolis Colts Are Mindful of Recent Wide Receiver Contracts
Barnwell offers a word of caution to the Colts, or any team that might want to add Pierce. A couple of wide receivers that signed somewhat healthy contracts last season didn’t pan out at all, and it turned out to be wasted money.
“Last offseason, teams desperate for speed simply overpaid to sign replacement-level talent at wide receiver in free agency,” Barnwell continues. “The Rams brought back Tutu Atwell on a one-year, $10 million deal and got 192 receiving yards over 10 games, as the move into 13 personnel groupings and the ascension of Xavier Smith and Konata Mumpfield cut off Atwell’s access to the field as the third wideout behind Davante Adams and Puka Nacua.
“The Jaguars signed Dyami Brown to an identical contract after a hot postseason in Washington, yet despite Travis Hunter’s knee injury, they essentially lost interest in Brown after a slow start. Jacksonville traded for Jakobi Meyers and promoted Parker Washington ahead of him in the lineup. Brown played single-digit snaps down the stretch and was a healthy scratch in the season-ending loss to the Bills.”
Which Version of Alec Pierce Would the Indianapolis Colts Be Signing?
If you watched the Colts over the past few years, you know that Pierce can be highly productive. Last year, he caught only 47 balls, but still racked up 1,003 yards and six touchdowns. His 21.3-yard average was incredible, but that comes a year after averaging 22.3.
Pierce would clearly be a nice addition to any offense, but is he really worth high-end wide receiver money? Barnwell isn’t so sure.
“Really, there has been two versions of Pierce,” Barnwell states. “The 2022-23 editions were more like Atwell and Brown as low-efficiency, high-reward deep threats, as he averaged just 1.1 yards per route run — 89th out of 101 qualifying wideouts. A cast of changing quarterbacks didn’t help, but Pierce wasn’t able to command a meaningful target share.
“Over the past two years, though, Pierce has upped that yards per route run figure to 1.9 in 2024 and 2.2 in 2025. The combined 2.1 figure is good for 20th among wide receivers over that span, just ahead of players such as Jameson Williams and Tyreek Hill. And it would be tough to argue that Pierce was playing with better quarterbacks than either player over that two-year span. Pierce still commands one of the lower target shares in the league, given his usage pattern as a downfield threat, but he has essentially been a slightly more efficient version of Williams, who signed a three-year, $80 million deal last season.”
So, what would a fair deal look like for Pierce? It would likely be wise for the Colts to hold on to him if they can, but that could prove difficult if a team offers him a significant amount of money in free agency. This will be a huge decision for Indy general manager Chris Ballard.
Micah Warren Micah Warren has been covering the NFL – and sports in general – for more than 20 years and he began writing for Heavy in 2025. His work has been featured in Yahoo!, MSN.com, Forbes, amNewYork, Off the Record, GCobb.com, Muck Rack, PR Daily, Blast Magazine and other sports and non-sports-related outlets. More about Micah Warren
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