Look back at our early college football predictions from a year ago, and there’s plenty to laugh (cry?) about now after an unpredictable 2025 season in which Indiana captured the national championship and its quarterback won the Heisman Trophy.

So let’s try this again for 2026. The Athletic surveyed 28 of our college football writers and editors to get early predictions for the national championship, Heisman Trophy, conference championships and more — plus some hot takes and bold calls. Also be sure to read Stewart Mandel’s initial Top 25 for 2026 here.

Who will win the national championship?

For years, Oregon was the consensus answer to the question of who the next first-time national champion would be. Then Indiana beat the Ducks (twice) en route to becoming the first first-time champion since Florida in 1996. So can Oregon finally pull it off in 2026 and make it two new champs in a row?

Dante Moore’s return at quarterback makes it clear Oregon is all-in for a title push, even though it must deal with the departures of coordinators Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal) to head coaching jobs. Moore is far from the only impact player who chose to return, and Dan Lanning’s Ducks — who were No. 1 in Stewart Mandel’s early Top 25 — got the most votes to win the title as the Big Ten seeks a fourth consecutive championship with a fourth different team.

Though it’s the favorite, Oregon isn’t an overwhelming choice, garnering support from 32.1 percent of our panel. Votes were spread out between nine teams. Two other Big Ten teams received multiple votes — three for an Indiana repeat and three for a second Ohio State title in three years — though next up behind Oregon were Notre Dame, seeking to avenge its CFP snub, and Texas, belatedly trying to deliver on its 2025 preseason hype.

One voter likes another first-time national champion not named Oregon: Texas Tech, which notched its first top-10 finish but was one-and-done in the CFP thanks to the Ducks. One other voter, meanwhile, opted for the chaos of Lane Kiffin immediately guiding LSU back to the mountaintop.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

A year ago at this time, The Athletic’s staff chose Jeremiah Smith as its early 2025 Heisman Trophy favorite, followed by Arch Manning. Neither made it to New York as a finalist (Smith did finish sixth).

Let’s try it again.

Smith is viewed by many as the best player in college football, regardless of position. The No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2025 has 163 catches for 2,558 yards and 27 touchdowns in two seasons, and he’s playing with the nation’s most accurate passer in Heisman finalist Julian Sayin. Ohio State’s offense is going through another play-caller change, with Arthur Smith coming in from the NFL. Two additional challenges for Jeremiah Smith: 1) the rarity of receivers winning the Heisman and 2) potentially splitting votes with Sayin, who was the choice of a pair of staffers in this poll.

And then there’s Manning, the betting favorite for the Heisman last preseason. After a rough start, Manning led Texas to a 10-3 final record, including wins over rivals and CFP teams Oklahoma and Texas A&M. He finished 42nd in the FBS in pass efficiency but has a year of starting experience under his belt, portal upgrades around him headlined by Auburn transfer receiver Cam Coleman and plenty of chances to deliver in the national spotlight, including a revenge opportunity against Ohio State in Week 2 in Austin.

Oregon and Notre Dame are our top two national title choices, but the Ducks’ Moore and the Irish’s CJ Carr received modest Heisman support behind Smith and Manning. Two voters are also betting on Trinidad Chambliss getting an extra year of eligibility at Ole Miss and capitalizing with a Heisman run, and two others like Jayden Maiava to become Lincoln Riley’s fourth Heisman-winning quarterback.

Sam Leavitt, who transferred from Arizona State to LSU, is the only portal entry in this cycle to get a vote. Dynamic Miami receiver Malachi Toney also got one. Zero running backs made the list.

Name three teams that missed the Playoff in 2025 but will make the CFP in 2026

This is an unscientific, open-ended question, asking staffers to simply name any three teams — not the only teams — they believe will make the Playoff after missing it last season. Only four teams made the Playoff in both seasons of the 12-team format (Indiana, Oregon, Georgia and Ohio State), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see far more than three teams leap into the field next year after missing it.

Some answers are not surprising, with 2024 CFP teams and 2025 near misses Notre Dame and Texas leading the way on a majority of submissions. Another close call in 2025, BYU, was next on the list. The Irish (CJ Carr), Longhorns (Arch Manning) and Cougars (Bear Bachmeier) all have starting quarterbacks returning to teams that finished Nos. 10, 11 and 12, respectively, in the final AP poll.

LSU (Lane Kiffin), Michigan (Kyle Whittingham) and Penn State (Matt Campbell) have new coaches but were the next three most-mentioned teams. A pair of voters named Houston, which quietly jumped from 4-8 to 10-3 in Willie Fritz’s second season and beat LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Which final top-10 team in 2025 is most likely to finish unranked in 2026?

It can be hard to predict such a big fall in advance, but four final top-10 teams in 2024 (Penn State, Arizona State, Boise State and Tennessee) finished unranked in 2025. Similar tumbles are inevitable.

Chambliss’ eligibility status could dictate what happens for Ole Miss, but our staff is pessimistic about the Rebels’ chances, with Alabama and Texas A&M garnering most of the rest of the skepticism. Each of the national championship participants, Indiana and Miami, also got a vote.

Five teams didn’t receive a vote to fall from the top 10 to unranked: Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech and Notre Dame.

Who will win the Big Ten?

Oregon won the Big Ten in its first season in the conference in 2024 en route to a No. 1 seed in the Playoff, where it was swiftly eliminated by Ohio State. With Moore back to lead a loaded roster, the Ducks edge the Buckeyes as our favorite to win the Big Ten. Ohio State is chasing its first Big Ten championship since 2020.

Six voters like Indiana to repeat despite numerous high-profile losses, with TCU transfer Josh Hoover set to replace Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. And one voter goes out on a limb for USC’s first Big Ten title.

Something to watch: Indiana and Oregon aren’t scheduled to meet next fall, but the conference schedule is a bit more appetizing — especially because Ohio State plays Indiana, Oregon, Michigan and USC.

Who will win the SEC?

Georgia has won the SEC title three of the past four years, and either Alabama or Georgia has won it every year but one since 2013. It’s strange to not see Alabama here, but the Crimson Tide were blown out by Indiana in the Rose Bowl, lost quarterback Ty Simpson to the NFL Draft and had an underwhelming transfer portal window, leading to skepticism heading into 2026. Alabama hasn’t started outside the preseason AP top 10 since 2008, but it’s No. 20 in Mandel’s initial rankings.

Georgia is the most popular choice, narrowly edging Texas by two votes. After Georgia, the only other three teams to receive votes are all relative newcomers to the conference that have yet to win the SEC crown.

Who will win the ACC

National runner-up Miami was the best team in the ACC last season but was denied a conference title game bid after being thrown into a convoluted five-way tiebreaker because of losses to Louisville and SMU. Now the Hurricanes have stolen the quarterback, Darian Mensah, of the team that actually won the ACC title, Duke, as they take aim at their first conference championship since joining the league in 2004.

Though six other teams received votes, Miami has the strongest conference championship support of any Power 4 team in this survey. Two voters notably opted for James Franklin leading Virginia Tech to its first ACC title since 2010.

Who will win the Big 12?

Texas Tech easily swept BYU in two 2025 meetings, but our staff is giving a slight edge to the Cougars to ascend to the top of the conference with coach Kalani Sitake and quarterback Bear Bachmeier returning.

Texas Tech will be betting on more transfer portal hits, including the addition of Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, No. 2 in The Athletic’s transfer quarterback rankings.

Which Group of 6 team will make the Playoff?
TeamConfVotes

Pac-12

13

American

4

American

2

MWC

2

American

2

MWC

1

MWC

1

American

1

American

1

Pac-12

1

With all Power 4 champions now guaranteed bids and the Pac-12 being revived, there are six conferences vying for the final automatic bid going to the highest-ranked team in what’s now the Group of 5. Amid the change, there’s a familiar name garnering the most support: Pac-12 newcomer Boise State, which made the 12-team field in 2024. The only other Pac-12 team to get a vote is conference holdover Washington State.

Otherwise, votes went to five teams from the American (Memphis, USF, Navy, Tulane, UTSA) and three teams that are still in the Mountain West (UNLV, Hawaii, New Mexico). As for the 2025 CFP participants, Tulane received just one vote after losing coach Jon Sumrall to Florida and James Madison received zero after losing Bob Chesney to UCLA.

Bold predictions

Lastly, we asked our staffers to offer up bold predictions and hot takes about 2026. These are meant to go out on a limb; they do not have to align with answers to previous questions. The bolder the better, but we’ll be honest: Don’t expect a high percentage of these to come true.

Then again, Indiana just won a national championship in football.

Matt Baker: Oregon, USC and Ohio State all make the semifinals, further cementing the Big Ten as the nation’s best conference.

Chris Vannini: The SEC fails to make the national championship game for the fourth consecutive year.

Manny Navarro: Five of the 12 teams that made last year’s Playoff make it back: Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, Oregon and Georgia. Heisman finalists: CJ Carr, Malachi Toney, Jeremiah Smith and Arch Manning.

Mark Cooper: Trinidad Chambliss wins his eligibility battle and leads Ole Miss back to the Playoff in a Heisman Trophy season.

Eric Single: 1) Lane Kiffin’s first LSU team misses the CFP and opts out of its bowl game. 2) Brian Kelly ends 2026 with an ACC head coaching job.

Austin Meek: Georgia Tech will bring back the triple option with Alberto Mendoza and Justice Haynes, win the ACC and make the CFP.

Jason Kirk: Notre Dame will finish No. 12, taking No. 11 Miami’s Playoff spot.

Scott Dochterman: With the Big Ten whiffing on its preferred CFP format and failing to secure an outside funding package from UC Investments, the league will make a splash by reaching a future football scheduling agreement with Notre Dame. The league will provide up to six games each year for the Irish — including an annual game with USC — and Notre Dame also will move its other sports (men’s hockey already competes in the Big Ten) under the league umbrella in due time. Notre Dame also will join the Big Ten’s bowl package.

Pete Sampson: Notre Dame formally notifies the ACC of its intention to withdraw from the league and enters into a scheduling partnership with the Big Ten/SEC to fill out its missing football scheduling inventory. The rest of the Irish sports shift to the Big East.

David Ubben: Five preseason top-10 teams finish unranked. Two teams that start the season unranked make the Playoff.

Bruce Feldman: Louisville’s Isaac Brown will run for over 2,000 yards; LSU TE Trey’Dez Green will emerge as a top-10 pick; Texas A&M DE Anto Saka will lead the country in sacks; and some school (coached by Lane Kiffin) will end up offering a QB $10 million to play in 2027.

Grace Raynor: Oregon will lose the Big Ten but win the national championship. … James Franklin will take Virginia Tech to the CFP in Year 1, getting the ACC two teams into the Playoff. … South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers will rebound from a tough 2025 and will be a Heisman finalist in 2026. … Jimbo Fisher will get a job in the 2026 coaching cycle. … Texas Tech will sign the top recruiting class. … The NCAA will suspend Pete Golding two games for tampering.

Matt Brown: Ohio State and Alabama meet in the postseason — in the ReliaQuest Bowl. … Notre Dame and USC resume their rivalry in a College Football Playoff semifinal won by the Irish.

Antonio Morales: Arch Manning discourse will be 1 percent more normal next season, which is a massive step up from last season.

Mitch Light: Nico Iamaleava will make it to New York as a Heisman finalist.

Ira Gorawara: A teenage kid named Malachi Toney crashes the Heisman party.

Kate Hairopoulos: Josh Hoover’s record passing numbers at Indiana lift him to a top-three Heisman finish. … UNC plays for the ACC title. … Deion Sanders steps down at Colorado after another one-win season in Big 12 play.

Mitch Sherman: Alabama will not win an SEC game in November, and Bill Belichick will walk away at North Carolina before the end of the regular season.

Seth Emerson: We’re still talking about the same issues — unlimited transferring, tampering, the calendar and the CFP format — well into November. But then events — the midterms, doomed federal legislation and the Playoff again leaving worthy teams out — lead to a whirlwind month or so of movement toward a 24-team CFP and collective bargaining.

Justin Williams: Marcus Freeman leads Notre Dame to a national championship and then takes an NFL head coaching job.

Cameron Teague Robinson: Marcus Freeman wins a national title at Notre Dame and leaves for the NFL, and the Irish throw the largest coaching contract in history at Curt Cignetti to take him away from Indiana.

Matthew Ho: Indiana loses in a rematch to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, but the Hoosiers bounce back in the College Football Playoff and go on to win another national title.

Christopher Kamrani: Indiana will miss the CFP, leading to Cignetti never smiling again.

Joe Rexrode: Indiana will lose two regular-season games — for the first time in the Cignetti era, for those who doubt that as a hot take! — and those games will be home vs. Ohio State and at Washington (that part of it is undeniably toasty). Suggesting the Hoosiers won’t have things put together for another deep run in the College Football Playoff? Too much heat for this prognosticator.

Sam Khan: Houston will be the next Indiana and Willie Fritz will lead the Cougars to the College Football Playoff.

Ralph Russo: Next season will be Dabo Swinney’s last as Clemson coach. He and the school agree to part ways after another mediocre season.

Stewart Mandel: Lane Kiffin leaves LSU after nine games for Alabama, which fires Kalen DeBoer after eight games. DeBoer then goes to Clemson to take over for Dabo Swinney after he gets too distraught over tampering to continue.

Jill Thaw: LSU finishes one of two ways: a national championship or utter implosion.