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A bold prediction has the Dolphins retaining Tua Tagovailoa
After five seasons as the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa was benched. It occurred after the team’s disappointing 28-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, which officially eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention. In front of a national audience, the Miami Dolphins were heavily criticized by announcer Troy Aikman, as he said about the Dolphins’ offense, “I’m flabbergasted by what we’ve witnessed here in this fourth quarter with the Dolphins. And now they want to call timeouts. It just is about as ridiculous a fourth quarter as I’ve seen in a long time.”
Former head coach Mike McDaniel responded to the criticism saying the Dolphins were unable to run a fast-paced offense. He then replaced Tagovailoa, believing he no longer gave the Miami Dolphins the best chance to win. That marked a fast decline after the Dolphins gave Tagovailoa a large extension prior to the 2024 season. After two seasons, the Dolphins are in a tough situation with that contract. So much so that a Dolphins writer now believes the team will stick with Tagovailoa in 2026.
Miami Dolphins Predicted to Retain Tagovailoa in 2026
Tua Tagovailoa is set to carry a $56 million cap hit in 2026, and if he’s released prior to June 1, he would set a new record with $99 million dead money. The Dolphins have a few choices. They could either get creative with a trade that lands the team taking Tagovailoa some draft compensation, they could swallow the tough pill that would result in releasing him, or opt to retain him.
FanSided’s Brian Miller seems to think the Dolphins will go with the third option as he wrote for the PhinPhanatic site that he predicts Tagovailoa will return to the Dolphins in 2026. He said, “We have to be realistic when it comes to the Dolphins’ former starting quarterback. He is expensive. The Dolphins don’t have many options. Releasing him will be an almost unabsorbable amount, and it will carry over two years against the cap. Trading him might cost money and draft picks.
No one wants to say it, but the best option may be to re-tape the band-aid and strip it off before the 2027 season. The difference is nearly $40 million if done as a post-June 1 release, but even without a release, Tagovailoa will count only $31.8 million in 2027, and they are washed out of the contract. They need a backup and a starter; let him compete. Maybe a team loses a QB before the start of the season, which makes a trade easier.”
Risk Behind Retaining Tagovailoa
Miller is correct in his assessment that it makes financial sense for the Dolphins to retain Tagovailoa and move on from him after the 2026 season. However, there is risk involved in having him on the roster. The new Dolphins front office and coaching may opt to bring in another quarterback, who they have penciled in for the starting job, and if there is an actual competition in training camp, Tagovailoa could be the team’s starter.
Tagovailoa will likely have a head start on a new quarterback, as he knows the offense that new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will run. Slowik even said he believes Tagovailoa might be able to bounce back, as he said, “There’s stories like [Tua’s] all the time. You’re talking about people that are at the peak of their profession… he can absolutely bounce back.”
Jose Esquer Jose Esquer is a Mexican-American sportswriter and communications student based in San Diego, CA. His work spans football, basketball, baseball, and soccer. He has written for platforms like RotoWire and DolphinsTalk. You can find him on Twitter/X @JEsquer8, usually talking Dolphins, world football, or both. More about Jose Esquer
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