Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

All week, the air around this game has been thick with the stuff that sounds good in a segment. Sam Darnold has a roster-bonus subplot that gets treated like it’s the point, and Klint Kubiak keeps getting discussed both as Tom Brady’s crowned prince, and guy designing the stress. Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel gets packaged as pure grit, and Assistant Coach of the Year Josh McDaniels gets talked about like he’s drawing plays with a quill. And folks in the PNW are as worried about Emmanwori’s ankle as they are feeling like he was snubbed for DROY. And that’s one of two snubs they’re dealing with: Mike MacDonald, the grand architect of Seattle’s prophesied turnaround, garnered fewer COTY votes than Seattle would have liked. What I’m saying is: it’s been all about the lights, all week long. And—great. It all fills airtime. But none of it explains how the game actually breaks. New England Patriots didn’t reach 14-3 on just aura—though they drip with it; they got there by turning into a mass-and-efficiency outfit when the season sharpened. Seattle Seahawks didn’t get here on a heater; they got here by building an offense that forces defenses into uncomfortable personnel answers, then punishes whatever they pick. So let’s hit the books. Below is my prediction for Super Bowl 60—the season’s ultimate crucible—between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

And if you’d like a little bit more of a deep dive on the specific subplots to what’s sure to be a cinematic game, check out my Five key matchups that will decide Super Bowl 60—and how to bet them piece.

Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The real game lives in personnel physics. Seattle ran condensed formations on 54.2% of snaps and lived in heavy subpackages on 54.2%, with the league’s lowest pass rate at 51.3%. In 12 personnel, they led the league at 7.5 yards per play, which is basically a cheat code for staying on schedule. New England answered with mass, not vibes. They went from six six-lineman snaps in the first nine weeks to 87 from Weeks 10-18, and the backs climbed from 3.8 yards per carry early to 5.5 after Week 10. The jumbo lane got cartoonish at 7.9 per carry with ten touchdowns, which is why this game starts at second-and-six, not third-and-nine. Seattle’s defense, though, is built to meet that brawn with speed. They stayed in nickel against offensive subpackages on 77.8% of snaps and still allowed only 4.5 yards per play in those looks, which keeps the disguise menu open without conceding the run.

Sam Darnold is the axis, but Seattle’s offense is a distribution problem, not a quarterback problem. He put up 4,048 yards with 8.5 per attempt, and Seattle hid the vulnerable reps with structure. Off play-action he was at 68.5% for 1,646 yards, 11.0 per attempt, and 15 touchdowns, which is why the under-center and rollout diet isn’t vibes. The run game makes that menu credible because Kenneth Walker III (1,027 yards on 4.6 per carry) and Zach Charbonnet (12 rushing touchdowns) kept defenses honest even when Seattle stayed heavy. But Charbonnet’s gone, and, in his stead, Walker took over as the lead back in the NFC Championship against the Rams and had little trouble gashing a young and mentally-taxed defense.

For the Seahawks, the pass game still has a cheat code because OPOY Jaxon Smith-Njigba is sitting on 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 13 deep grabs and 542 deep yards per Next Gen Stats. Seattle can also win the boring throws through Cooper Kupp (70 targets) and AJ Barner (six touchdowns), which is why 12 personnel pops without needing a slot-only plan.

Now flip it. Drake Maye is the superpower, but the supporting cast has real shape: Stefon Diggs cleared 1,013 yards on 102 targets, and Hunter Henry sat at 768 yards on 87 targets with seven touchdowns, which is exactly how New England keeps the chain moving when the pocket gets loud. Kayshon Boutte (six touchdowns) is the vertical tax when corners get greedy, and the backs can be outlet offense without changing personnel: Rhamondre Stevenson had 345 receiving yards, while TreVeyon Henderson caught 35 balls. And Kyle Williams is the absolute X-factor, who might be able to stretch Seattle’s verticality to its limit.

The real tell, though, is how New England chose to run when the season got sharp. They went from six total six-lineman snaps in the first nine weeks to 87 from Weeks 10-18, and the run game jumped from 3.8 yards per carry early to 5.5 after Week 10. With the extra lineman on the field, it got cosmic: 7.9 yards per carry and ten touchdowns, the kind of efficiency that turns second-and-six into a philosophy. Stevenson led the league at 2.8 yards after contact per rush, so even “good fits” still bleed, and Henderson’s 18 runs of ten-plus yards are the edge-steal that keeps heavy personnel from becoming a tell. That’s the chessboard before the violence. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore are the kind of interior disruption that ends drives quietly, and Seattle’s soft spot is Anthony Bradford allowing a 15.3% pressure rate across two postseason games.

Seattle’s pass architecture is survival math, not aesthetic. Only 62% of Darnold’s dropbacks are straight shotgun with no play-action, he’s under center 32% of the time, and he’s rolling out on 13% of dropbacks. If New England forces true dropback on long yardage, the turnover door is real. Seattle ended 14.1% of drives with a turnover in the regular season, and Darnold’s turnover-worthy play rate under pressure was 7.2%, worst among starters.

On the other side, Maye is living in the same stress ecosystem. New England has allowed a 38.3% pressure rate and an 8.7% sack rate this postseason, and the sack count has ballooned to fifteen. The left edge is the loudest leak because Will Campbell has a documented long-arm trigger, and DeMarcus Lawrence fits it cleanly with 33.75-inch arms and a 3.05 time-to-pressure that lands right on the hitch window. Add the wave behind him—Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, Jarran Reed—and the Patriots can’t just be tough in protection. This is also where Seattle’s secondary chess piece matters. Nick Emmanwori has lived in the box on 51% of alignments and still posted 2.5 sacks, eleven passes defensed, and nine tackles for loss, which is how nickel tackles like base without declaring it.

Patriots vs. Seahawks pick, best bet

The counter is obvious, and it’s why the Seattle Seahawks are laying points. If they stay on schedule, Sam Darnold gets to live where the offense is strongest: play-action and “declare your rules” football. He used play-action on 28% of dropbacks, and the Seahawks generated 0.27 EPA per play with 10.6 yards per attempt on those reps. When they pushed it vertical off that same menu, he went 16-of-24 for 589 yards and five touchdowns, good for a 158.3 rating. And if New England ever winds up in base too often, it’s gasoline: Darnold led the league with +52.8 EPA against base defenses and averaged 11.1 yards per attempt. The problem for Seattle is that New England’s best answers poke at Darnold’s least-stable moments without turning the defense into blitz roulette. Darnold was materially worse versus Cover 2 late-season, and Seattle’s own splits dip when opponents live in sub-packages and disguise the picture, with negative EPA per pass in those looks and more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. That’s how a calm Seahawks script gets replaced by the single mistake that changes a title game.

The market says Seahawks -4.5 (-112), New England Patriots +4.5 (-108), total 45.5 (-110), Seahawks -230, Patriots +190, and that +190 is basically pricing New England like a one-in-three win. If the Patriots are going to flip that, it’s because their strengths are the exact kind that travel in one-game finals: elite dropback efficiency when they’re protected (0.256 dropback EPA), and a defense that can play real coverage without gifting explosives. The why-now isn’t vibes either; Seattle’s offense ran a higher turnover rate than New England over the full season (12.9% vs 9.9%), so the upset doesn’t require a miracle, just one extra possession and one short field. If the spirit is “New England can win the hidden downs and tilt the mistake math,” taking +4.5 is the safer telling of the same story, but I want the full payout for the version where Drake Maye survives the wave, the interior wins a couple third downs, and Seattle’s first pressured error shows up as points.

Patriots moneyline at +190. Patriots 24, Seahawks 21.

And, again, if you want to check out my deep dive on the five matchups that will decide Super Bowl 60—much more of a deep dive than even this longform bet—head to the Super Week page here at DraftKings Network, or head to the article directly here.

Best bet: Patriots (+190) vs. Seahawks

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I’m not chasing something cute here.The clean prop that matches the Patriots moneyline story is Sam Darnold to throw an interception, over 0.5. Seattle’s whole offense is built to keep him in play-action comfort, but the matchup is screaming that one long-yardage series decides the title. Seattle ended 14.1% of drives with a turnover, and Darnold’s turnover-worthy play rate under pressure sat at 7.2%, worst among starters. He’s already sitting on six interceptions and five lost fumbles, so the mistake pedigree isn’t theoretical. The split is the tell: he’s been top ten by EPA when clean, but he falls into the bottom tier when pressured, and that’s exactly the cliff New England is trying to push him off. If Milton Williams and Christian Barmore win even a handful of A-gap snaps, third-and-long shows up, and the ball has to travel through a two-high picture anyway. Seattle can hide with under-center, rollouts, and play-action, but it can’t hide forever. In a 24-21 Patriots script, Seattle is chasing points late, the throws get sharper and farther, and that’s the exact moment this prop cashes.

Best prop lean: Sam Darnold to throw an interception (-120)

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