Here are five reasons why the New England Patriots will defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX:
Drake Maye’s legs
The Patriots haven’t proven capable of consistently protecting Maye in the pocket this season, especially in the playoffs. Part of that is New England’s offensive line, but the Pats have also faced one juggernaut of a pass rush after another this postseason. Maye has countered with his elite ability to scramble and make off-platform plays. This was key in close playoff victories over the L.A. Chargers and Broncos, where he produced at least 65 rushing yards in both. According to Next Gen Stats, Maye led the NFL in scramble first downs (27) and ranked third in total scramble rush yards (423) in the regular season.
Christian Gonzalez shadows Jaxon Smith-Njigba
This is a matchup worthy of the Super Bowl stage. At very least, both are top five at their respective positions, but could make an argument for why they’re the best. Gonzalez doesn’t necessarily have to shutdown Smith-Njigba to win this battle. The way JSN has performed this season, I’m not sure anyone really could shut him down. If Gonzalez creates enough of a stalemate, it’ll force Sam Darnold to hold the ball longer and target other receivers. Both outcomes would be beneficial for New England.
Seahawks’ interior offensive line struggles
A lot has been made of rookie left tackle Will Campbell’s struggles with the Patriots, but Seattle has a rookie on its offensive line who can be picked on as well: left guard Grey Zabel (also a first-round pick). In fact, New England’s interior D-line vs. the interior of the Seahawks’ O-line clearly favors the Patriots. Zabel, right guard Anthony Bradford and first-year starting center Jalen Sundell should have their hands full against Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. Any quarterback will struggle if their interior pocket collapses, but Darnold is a different player against pressure. He had an NFL-high 7.2% turnover rate on pressured dropbacks this season, according to NGS.
Defense continues historic run
New England’s defense has allowed only 26 points in its first three playoff games, the fewest in a three-game span in the postseason since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots have held their three playoff opponents to 209.7 total yards per game, 3.3 yards per play, and have produced 12 sacks. They lead all playoff teams in each category, and yet the focus has consistently been on the opposing defense. First the Texans, then the Broncos and now the Seahawks.
Josh McDaniels goes jumbo
Two running back sets featuring Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson would give Maye an extra blocker against Seattle’s pass rush and an outlet in the passing game. Including an extra tight end to create jumbo formations would also target one of the Seahawks’ few weaknesses on defense, while giving New England options in short-yardage situations. The Patriots scored a league-high 10 touchdowns utilizing jumbo formations this season.