Blake Krass breaks down his best same game parlay for Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
The Seattle Seahawks take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 60. The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET in Santa Clara, California.
The Seahawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 45.5 points. Below is my preview and a same game parlay bet for the Super Bowl.
Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction, preview
The Patriots were rightly critiqued for having such an easy regular-season schedule. Their postseason schedule has been more complicated. C.J. Stroud played arguably the worst game of his life in the Divisional Round, and they faced a backup quarterback in the AFC Championship Game. However, the slate of defenses that they faced in the postseason was absolutely elite. Houston ranked second in defensive EPA/play in the regular season, while the Chargers ranked sixth and Denver ranked eighth. Unfortunately for New England, it doesn’t get any easier. In fact, Seattle led the NFL in defensive EPA/play during the regular season. This will be one last massive test for Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense.
Drake Maye is one of two serious MVP contenders, and he led the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite during the regular season. However, he has really struggled against these elite defenses in the postseason. Among the 15 quarterbacks to start a game this postseason, he ranks 13th in EPA+CPOE composite, with a mark most similar to Shedeur Sanders’ regular-season figure. Maye has taken far too many sacks and has six fumbles and two interceptions in three games. The Seattle defense will be able to get similar pressure on him and force him into mistakes.
On the offensive side of the ball, Seattle should do more to take advantage of those mistakes. While Maye has struggled in the postseason, Sam Darnold has been brilliant. He leads all postseason quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, adjusted EPA/play, success rate and completion percentage. Darnold was great in the regular season as well, but he has really stepped up in the playoffs. He didn’t need to do much against San Francisco as Seattle blew them out of the water from the jump. However, his performance against the Rams was very impressive. That was the one opponent that Darnold couldn’t crack during the regular season. He then threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns against them in the postseason.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay
My best same-game parlay bet for Super Bowl 60 is for the Seahawks to win and Sam Darnold to throw for at least two touchdown passes. The Seahawks are -238 on the Moneyline, but adding the Darnold prop to the Moneyline takes this bet to odds of +124. The New England run defense is so tough that many teams don’t even attempt to run the ball against them. New England ranked fourth in the NFL in both opponent rushing attempts per game and opponent rushing yards per game during the regular season. When Seattle gets into the red zone, it should lean on Sam Darnold to make the necessary plays to get the ball into the end zone.
For as good as the Patriots were all season, they did not have a great red zone defense. New England ranked 23rd in the NFL in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage, giving up six points on over 60% of opponents’ red zone drives. When Seattle gets into the red zone, it should be able to get the ball into the end zone for touchdowns. Those touchdowns are most likely to come through the air. New England ranked fourth in the NFL in opponent rushing touchdown percentage. Meaning, 72.5% of the touchdowns that the Patriots allowed this season came through the air. Darnold should rack up the pass attempts in this game and turn at least two of those pass attempts into touchdowns.
The Seattle defense is the best unit on the field in this game. The second-best unit is the Seattle special teams. The Seahawks finished second in the regular season in special teams DVOA. They have a game-changing returner, Rashid Shaheed, and some of the best punt and kick coverage in the NFL. Seattle should be able to win the field position battle and force Drake Maye to be overly aggressive, throwing the ball to move his team down the field. That should lead to mistakes that Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense are more than capable of cashing in on with touchdowns. Seattle should win this game with their defense and special teams, but Sam Darnold will also play a big role, throwing for multiple touchdowns.
Best Same Game Parlay Bet: Seahawks ML & Sam Darnold 2+ Passing TDs (+124)