Alex Hunter breaks down Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s outlook as a receiver for Super Bowl 60 between the Seahawks and Patriots.
The Patriots and Seahawks meet in Super Bowl LX on Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Seattle is favored by 4.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 45.5 points.
Below, I dive into Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s outlook for the first quarter of Super Bowl LX.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba O/U 16.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards
Deservedly so, Smith-Njigba was just named Offensive Player of the Year. Between the regular season and the playoffs, the wideout has produced 132 catches for 1,965 yards and 12 touchdowns. Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in target share (35.4%) and YPPR (3.57).
During this incredible campaign, Smith-Njigba has had a knack for starting games off hot. The 23-year-old ranks third in the league in first quarter receiving yards (386) and he is averaging 20.3 first quarter receiving yards per game. Smith-Njigba’s league-high target share increases to 38.5% in the first quarter, which is also a league-best mark, and he has topped 16.5 first quarter receiving yards in 11 of his 19 games, including 33 yards in the first quarter of the NFC Championship Game vs. the Rams two weeks ago.
The Patriots’ defense has been surging recently, but this unit has been vulnerable to start games this season, allowing the 10th-most yards per pass in the first quarter (7.7). Per usual, the Seahawks’ game plan should be to find Smith-Njigba early and often, and him exceeding 16.5 yards in the first quarter of the Super Bowl is very realistic.
Verdict: Over 16.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-114)