Packers’ Malik Willis gets huge $26 million free agent contract update by ESPN analysis originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The numbers being thrown around so far this offseason for Green Bay Packers QB Malik Willis have been solid.

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The backup quarterback is a free agent, and he’s likely to get paid at a higher rate than anything the Packers could pay to keep him.

But no one has gone as high as ESPN’s Ben Solak did in a new article on Tuesday.

Solak predicts Willis will get a contract worth $26 million per year.

To get there, he compared Willis to Brock Osweiler.

“Drafted in the second round in 2012, Osweiler didn’t start a game until his fourth year with the Broncos, as a little-known quarterback named Peyton Manning turned out to be much healthier than Denver could have dreamed,” Solak writes. “Osweiler parlayed his seven starts (5-2, pretty average stats) into a four-year, $72 million deal with the Texans in 2016 — a substantial contract at the time, and one that Houston traded to the Brownswith significant draft capital the next offseason after it became clear Osweiler wasn’t a starting-caliber quarterback.”

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Using comparisons to a few other passers, and some work with percentage of the salary cap, Solak arrived at that $26 million number for Willis.

“Osweiler got $18 million per year, which was about 8.6% of the 2016 salary cap,” Solak writes. “A decade later, with a salary cap projection just over $300 million, a similar deal would cost $26 million per year. This feels like the correct value for Willis. Fields made $20 million per year on his two-year contract with the Jets, and Mayfield is making $33 million per year in Tampa Bay. That $13 million difference between the two feels like the sweet spot for Willis.”

The eye test makes Willis feel safer than Osweiler. His combination of mobility, arm strength and improved understanding of the game was clear every time he stepped in for Jordan Love in Green Bay.

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There’ll always be risk signing a guy like Willis, but by the same token, he’s also the only free agent QB who could be considered to have some upside, too.

Willis will get paid, and it seems likely that it’s a substantial cost. Someone will believe he’s worth the risk.

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