EAGAN, Minn. — The central question facing the Minnesota Vikings this offseason is simple: Can they secure a credible quarterback without promising him their starting job?

It’s a needle they proved incapable of threading a year ago, when two quarterbacks left the organization rather than contend with the presence of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones declined what amounted to one-year offers, knowing that McCarthy would eventually get his opportunity to play.

Now, after McCarthy’s 10-start debut raised concerns about his long-term viability, can the Vikings execute any better? Will any starting-caliber free agents — a short list that includes Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis and possibly Geno Smith if he is released by the Las Vegas Raiders — believe that they could win the job in a competition? Or would they need assurance ahead of time? And if they receive it, or if the Vikings trade for a starter instead, will that in essence mark an unprecedented end of McCarthy’s time as the Vikings’ starter?

The Vikings have been quiet since the Jan. 30 firing of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, but coach Kevin O’Connell and executive vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski (who is filling the GM role through the draft) are expected to speak publicly next week at the NFL scouting combine. Plans can change with new leadership, but for now it’s worth assessing what O’Connell thought about McCarthy’s future before Adofo-Mensah’s departure.

How the Vikings fill out their quarterback room this offseason will reveal a lot about what they think of J.J. McCarthy’s future in Minnesota. Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire

During a Jan. 13 news conference, O’Connell did not commit to McCarthy as his 2026 starter. But he also made clear that he wants to provide a runway for development this offseason, the same fundamental message he and Adofo-Mensah used a year ago.

O’Connell said last month he “definitely” wants a “competitive situation” at the position and, in fact, used a form of the word “competition” nine times during the question-and-answer session.

“We’ve got to decide how to not only continue J.J.’s progression [and] allow him to continue to ascend as a young player, [23] years old with 10 starts,” O’Connell said. “But at the same time, I think the competition in that room will only enhance our entire team.”

If that’s the message to free agents when the negotiating window opens March 9, it might be difficult to recruit candidates who are seeking a clear path to the field. A trade would alleviate the need for convincing.

San Francisco 49ers backup Mac Jones, who is under contract through 2026, in theory wouldn’t have a say in the matter if the Vikings acquire him. He would serve as a hedge against McCarthy’s development and health, and if Jones didn’t like how it went, he could depart after the season as a free agent.

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Some trades would by definition signal a new starter, whether it’s a deal for the Arizona Cardinals‘ Kyler Murray or even the rights to retired New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr, who recently said he would unretire for a shot at winning the Super Bowl. Any such discussions are likely to heat up during the combine next week, at which point O’Connell and Brzezinski likely will have decided if they are prepared to sideline McCarthy should the right deal presents itself.

The Vikings could comfort themselves with the hope that McCarthy will capitalize on a developmental season and reclaim his starting job in future years. Putting his youth in context, it’s worth understanding that he is younger than four of the top five 2026 draft-eligible quarterbacks on ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid’s most recent rankings.

But that path — taking a step back behind an established quarterback and then reemerging someday as the Vikings’ long-term starter — is unprecedented among quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 this century, according to ESPN Research.

Some top-10 picks have been benched for a short period during a season, most recently the Carolina Panthers‘ Bryce Young in 2024, and then elevated back into the starting role. But since the start of the 2000 season, there isn’t a precedent for a quarterback drafted in the top 10 to be replaced during the offseason, remain with his incumbent team and then resume a regular starter’s role.

The reason is easy to understand. Teams usually give coveted quarterbacks longer runways to prove themselves on the field. If a season-long step back happens this early, it typically means the situation is unfixable.

There are only three occasions since 2000 when a first-round quarterback received fewer than 10 starts with the team that drafted them, and only one was a top-10 pick: the 49ers’ Trey Lance. The others were Paxton Lynch of the Denver Broncos and Johnny Manziel of the Cleveland Browns. Lance was sidelined by a series of injuries, Manziel encountered numerous off-field issues and Lynch simply never played well enough to merit an extended on-field look.

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The Vikings have genuine reason to consider replacing McCarthy, given the depths of his poor performance in his debut season and the unique position of their veteran-heavy roster. In the bigger picture, it would merely add to the nearly unprecedented nature of the Vikings’ efforts to find a long-term answer at the position.

McCarthy is the only quarterback the Vikings have ever drafted with a top-10 pick. He then became the first quarterback selected in the first round during the NFL’s modern draft era to miss his entire rookie season because of injury. McCarthy’s torn right meniscus healed in time for the 2025 season, prompting Darnold to become the second quarterback in league history to leave a team after throwing for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. The other was the Jameis Winston, whose departure from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019 was hastened by the 30 interceptions he threw.

Darnold went on to become the second starting quarterback in NFL history to win 14 regular-season games in consecutive years, and the first to do it with different teams. He and the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX, and the Vikings missed the playoffs.

With Adofo-Mensah fired and a replacement not expected to be hired until after the draft, the Vikings are in an extended period of temporary leadership whose focus is squarely on the 2026 season. When we last heard from O’Connell, he was trying his best to paint a positive throughline for McCarthy’s career. He noted being “encouraged by the type of football he started to play toward the second half of the season” and argued “we started to see a little bit” of a “mindset on completions” show up.

“But,” O’Connell said, “we’re still looking at a quarterback who’s started 10 games. Ten out of a possible 34 in two years. Not the ideal path for a young quarterback to develop on the field, but I thought he did.”

Is that enough to salvage another season for McCarthy? Or are the Vikings in the process of accepting one of the biggest draft busts in modern history? The answer could be clear in a matter of weeks.