ESPN has released its 2025 stat projections, including how Indianapolis Colts kicker Spencer Shrader will perform this season.

Mike Clay puts together these win probabilities and stat projections for every team each offseason. When it comes to Shrader in 2025, one would think that the Colts would be pretty happy if his actual season plays out like this projection.

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On the year, ESPN is projecting that Shrader makes 28 of his 33 field goal attempts and 34 of his 35 extra point attempts. For some context, a hit rate of 86% would have ranked 14th out of 27 eligible kickers last season, according to PFF.

Earlier this offseason, the Colts made the surprising decision to move on from veteran Matt Gay in favor of Shrader. But as GM Chris Ballard described, that decision was far less about Gay and more so about what Shrader showcased last season with multiple teams.

“He leaves us and performs and performs at two different teams –you know how hard that is?” Ballard said. “That’s difficult now, to go to two different teams and have to perform – that is not easy. You’re working with a totally different operation at both – different snapper and different holder – and to go in and be successful. This had more to do with Spencer than it did, really, with Matt.”

Shrader finished the 2024 season, his rookie year, making all nine extra point attempts and all five field goal attempts.

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However, Shrader is still an inexperienced player overall. Of those aforementioned attempts he had last season, none of them were from over 50 yards.

There are numerous examples throughout the NFL of young kickers going through a steep learning curve. That, of course, has no bearing on how Shrader is going to perform, but until shown otherwise, there will be some uncertainty around how this season will play out.

Along with Shrader on the roster at kicker, the Colts also signed Temple undrafted free agent Maddux Trujillo. Perhaps a competition between the two could unfold, but this is Shrader’s job until–or if–that materializes.

This article originally appeared on Colts Wire: ESPN projects how Colts’ K Spencer Shrader will perform in 2025