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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 28: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins looks on from the sideline during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 28, 2025 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The Miami Dolphins seem to be trying to finalize their divorce with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
With new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, both formerly with one of the better-run organizations in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers, the expectation would be that they would want to move off Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa has said that he would like a fresh start this coming season, and if that happens the Dolphins will need to search for a new QB. Unless rookie Ty Simpson makes his way to Miami, this will involve them finding their signal caller on the free agent market.
And Henry McKenna of Fox Sports projects that the Dolphins will land none other than former Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, who he believes will perform the least well of all the teams bringing in new free agent QB starters.
Geno Smith to Land In Miami “By Necessity”
“Smith’s tenure in Las Vegas was messy. And that’s being generous.” McKenna writes.
“But remember that — just the season prior — he was leading the league in passing yards for the Seattle Seahawks. He’s still a good player. He’s not the type of player who can exceed his circumstances. Miami is rebuilding, and the Dolphins aren’t exactly an exciting place to land. But Smith isn’t in an exciting place in his career either. So this marriage happens by necessity.”
Given the Dolphins’ roster and financial situation, they could be priced out of higher-priced free agents like Malik Willis or Kyler Murray, who both offer substantially greater upside. As such McKenna believes Smith will be the last viable remaining viable option.
Whilst the 35-year old is still technically under contract with Las Vegas, the Raiders are widely expected to draft quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the 1st overall pick in April’s draft, leaving Smith expendable. Moreover, the team can save $8 million against the cap in 2026 by releasing him prior to June 1.
How Will the Dolphins Move Off Tua Tagovailoa?
The former Alabama man has been one of the more polarizing QBs in the league over the past dozen years, despite having had his measure of success under former head coach Mike McDaniel. And after having put forth what has been his worst statistical season since his rookie year in 2020, it became clear that the team would at least look for a way out.
This is easier said than done, given that the Dolphins will incur a $99 million dead cap hit if they cut Tua this offseason. Whilst they can save $11 million against the cap by trading him, his next team would have to take on his $39 million salary – an amount that few teams would be willing to pay to retain the services of the former 5th overall pick.
Ultimately, the team may find a way to trade him by eating some of his 2026 salary, or they could bite the bullet and eat the big dead cap hit by releasing – perhaps designating him as a post-June 1 cut to soften the blow this coming year. But one thing is for sure, Tua is not long for South Florida.
Daniel Arwas Daniel Arwas is a sports writer who covers the NFL for Heavy.com. Daniel began his career in sports writing in 2022 and has covered the NFL and college football for Gridiron Heroics and The Hammer. More about Daniel Arwas
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