The New York Jets have oodles of assets this offseason. That doesn’t mean they should throw those assets around wildly.

It’s something that often goes overlooked amid free agency speculation involving the Jets. The latest player linked to New York is no exception.

The Jets were recently named among the best fits to sign Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, per A-to-Z Sports.

It’s an understandable connection on paper—this isn’t intended to knock the article or its writers. The Jets could find themselves in need of a running back if Breece Hall walks, and Walker is a damn good one, fresh off a Super Bowl MVP award.

However, upon a deeper analysis of offensive coordinator Frank Reich’s schematic tendencies, Walker just isn’t the type of running back that makes sense for New York’s offensive vision.

Why Kenneth Walker III does not make sense for the Jets

Any discussion about Kenneth Walker III and New York has to include Breece Hall, as the Jets would not sign Walker unless it were to replace Hall. So, comparing these two players should be the basis of the conversation.

Walker is coming off an electric playoff run for the Seahawks. However, that was an outlier compared to his body of work over the last two regular seasons.

Across 17 games in 2025, Walker rushed 221 times for 1,027 yards (4.6 per carry) and five touchdowns, adding 31 receptions on 36 targets for 282 yards (7.8 yards per target).

Sure, those are solid numbers on paper. In fact, they are comparable to Hall’s. Walker finished with 1,309 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns (17 games), while Hall had 1,415 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns (16 games).

However, Seattle’s outstanding offensive line, efficient passing game, and brilliantly designed scheme opened up plenty of room for Walker to work. His production floor was high, especially compared to a player like Hall, who did not enjoy nearly the same degree of assistance. Relative to expectations, Hall made a much bigger impact.

This is reflected in the players’ yards-over-expected numbers, per NFL Pro. Using player tracking data, NFL Pro calculates how many yards a player gained on each play relative to what was “expected” based on the blocking.

With 142 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) and 99 YACOE (yards after catch over expected), Hall racked up 241 TYOE (total yards over expected), placing seventh-best among running backs.

Walker, meanwhile, had just 39 RYOE and 60 YACOE, bringing him to 99 TYOE. This ranked all the way down at 28th for the position, 19 spots behind Hall.

In 2024, Walker was even less impactful, combining -16 RYOE with 48 YACOE for a measly 32 TYOE, barely making him an above-replacement-level playmaker. Hall had a down year in 2024, too, but even so, his 112 TYOE still wiped the floor with Walker.

So, if the Jets were to replace Hall with Walker, they would likely experience a significant downgrade in overall playmaking ability. That’s not to say Walker is a bad player; it’s just that Hall is a lot better.

The only justification for this swap would be if Walker were to give the Jets a commensurate discount that reflects the drop-off in impact. However, according to Spotrac’s projections, Walker is not going to provide that discount.

Per Spotrac, Hall currently has a market value of $10.4 million per year. Walker has a market value of $9.0 million, a discount of just $1.4 million.

These players are not $1.4 million apart.

The gap becomes even wider when you account for scheme fit.

Walker hails from an outside zone-heavy Seahawks offense. It’s on these outside zone plays where he did most of his damage in 2025.

This past season, Walker ranked sixth among running backs with 76 rush attempts on outside zone, per FTN Fantasy. He was dangerous on those plays, racking up 6.1 expected points added (EPA), which placed seventh.

On any other concept, Walker was a total liability, amassing -23.7 EPA, the fifth-worst total in the NFL.

This makes Walker a poor fit for the Jets, as their offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, has historically utilized outside zone at an extremely low rate compared to the rest of the league.

Seen below are Reich’s run-concept splits across his last two NFL stops (2022 Colts and 2023 Panthers), compared to the 2025 NFL average.

Even in a vacuum, the drop-off from Hall to Walker was already too large to justify a mere $1.4 million discount in salary (as projected by Spotrac). When you toss in the fact that Walker is only effective on outside zone, the drop-off would become even larger in a Jets offense that projects to utilize outside zone at a low rate.

If the Jets are willing to pony up for a veteran running back, they are much better off keeping Hall than pursuing Walker. The slightly larger contract will be well worth it on the field.

Should the Jets elect to let Hall walk, they are better off rolling the dice in the draft than paying a pretty penny for a player who would not make a significant impact in their offense.