Feb. 28, 2026, 6:04 p.m. CT

The Dallas Cowboys have the rare honor of picking twice in the first round of the 2026 NFL draft. For their first pick they have a shortlist of worthy candidates to consider. This year’s draft looks abnormally devoid of top tier prospects making it a bad time to be picking early and volatile to anyone trying to predict who to target down the road.

Earlier we ran through the results of a Monte Carlo simulation run by Eagles Eric on X. By running random sampling over and over again, probabilities can be derived from things like draft forecasting. At Pick 12 there was both good and bad news to report.

Looking at 20 we can see even a greater degree of unknown facing the Cowboys. With needs on defense and the strength of the draft being defensive end, it’s not crazy to see three defensive ends on the Cowboys’ probability list.

Cashius Howell (10.1%), Keldric Faulk (10.7%) and Akheem Mesidor (8%) are the most likely individuals to be the pick, but their odds pale in comparison to the field which has a 73.5% of being the pick. That means it’s more likely to be someone else entirely.

Bull rushing pass rusher T.J. Parker from Clemson has a 41% shot at being there at 20. Safety Emmanuel McNeil Warren a 32% chance. 32% chance for Georgia linebacker C.J. Allen. And cornerback Avieon Terrell a 29% chance.

Expert NFL picks: Exclusive betting insights only at USA TODAY.

Player specific odds the three favorites will be there at 20 are decent but they grow, obviously, if Dallas decides to target them earlier. Cashius Howell has just a 35% chance of being there at 20 but a 62% chance of being there at 12. Would the Cowboys reach early to secure their guy? Faulk has a 32% chance of being there at 20 but a 55% chance at 12. Mesidor has a 38% chance of being there at 20 but a 66% chance at 12.

All of these odds are sure to change as big boards change across the league, but this is an excellent starting point to anyone hoping to find some degree of certainty in a very uncertain environment such as the draft.

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