March 4, 2026, 8:05 a.m. ET

With NFL free agency on the horizon, let’s predict which of the Indianapolis Colts top 12 unrestricted free agents stay and which ones sign elsewhere.

Before free agency arrives, however, the Colts have some work to do with the salary cap. After using the transition tag on Daniel Jones, Indianapolis is now over the salary cap. Chris Ballard will have to create some operating room in the coming days.

The NFL’s legal tampering period opens on March 9th, and then on March 11th, free agency officially opens.

Now, let’s make our final free agency predictions.

QB Daniel Jones

The Colts placed the transition tag on Jones. He is able to negotiate with other teams, but the Colts will have the chance to match any offer. With Ballard needing to produce a playoff team this season, he has no choice but to pay Jones, given the team’s quarterback situation. Stay.

Expert NFL picks: Exclusive betting insights only at USA TODAY.WR Alec Pierce

By tagging Jones, Pierce has a lot more leverage now and is able to test the free agent market if he’d like. Ballard is going down a risky path, but I’ll choose to believe that the Colts retain Pierce and don’t let him sign elsewhere. Stay.

OT Braden Smith

Jalen Travis showed he can be a capable starter. Just last year, the Colts moved on from Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in favor of second-year players Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves. They could take a similar approach with Smith. Go.

DE Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, Tyquan Lewis

I’m going to lump these three together. This position group has to be reshaped this offseason. More pass rush juice is needed, and Ballard has also mentioned the need to get younger and faster on defense, along with wanting to prioritize the front seven this offseason. Go.

DT Neville Gallimore

Flip a coin on this one. I think Gallimore showed enough this past year as a rotational defender, and he won’t break the bank by any means to bring back. But again, referencing Ballard’s comments above about the defense, I think the Colts go in a different direction. Go.

TE Mo Alie-Cox

Alie-Cox provides the offense with a very steady presence as a blocker in an offense that uses its share of two tight end sets under Shane Steichen. We know the role Alie-Cox will fill and that he’ll do so reliably. Stay.

LB Germaine Pratt

The Colts need a greater coverage presence at linebacker. And not to be repetitive, but with Ballard wanting to get younger and faster within the defensive front seven, I think the Colts go in a different direction at linebacker. Go.

S Nick Cross

The Colts invested in the safety position last offseason by signing Cam Bynum. I think Cross gets more money elsewhere. Go.

IOL Danny Pinter

The Colts’ current depth chart along the offensive line is very short on experience behind the starting five. Pinter’s veteran presence could certainly provide some value, not to mention that he can help out at center or guard if needed. Stay.

S Rodney Thomas

Although not recently, Thomas has in-game experience and could provide a backup option behind Bynum at free safety. He also emerged as a special teams contributor last season. However, the Colts have several young players already on the roster at this position, including Hunter Wohler, Trey Washington, and Reuben Lowrey, who they could turn to fill those depth and special teams roles. Go.