March 7, 2026, 11:31 a.m. ET

ESPN’s Seth Walder recently put together his list of the most overrated and underrated NFL free agents this offseason. In the overrated category was the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Travis Etienne.

Etienne put together a bounce-back season in 2025 under first-year head coach Liam Coen, totaling over 1,100 rushing yards, with another 341 yards through the air, and 14 total touchdowns.

However, there’s one particular stat that has Walder wary. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Etienne finished the season with 44 rushing yards over expected.

To Walder, that’s an important figure when deciding what Etienne’s next contract looks like.

“It’s good that the last number was positive,” Walder said, referencing Etienne’s 44 rushing yards over expected, “but Etienne was negative in that category the two prior seasons — with minus-77 RYOE in 2023 and minus-43 in 2024 (to be fair, he had a huge plus-231 in 2022).

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“Paying a high-cost contract to a running back who hasn’t consistently been able to get what is blocked for him is not advisable unless that back delivers in a major way in a different area. But Etienne doesn’t.”

While not referencing Etienne specifically, but discussing the running back position in general, Coen made similar comments last season, mentioning the importance of a running back being able to create for themselves.

As good as the Jaguars‘ offense was down the stretch in 2025, the run game struggled. That isn’t all on Etienne either, the offensive line play needed to be better in that regard, but this is an area that must improve in 2026.

Walder also made one more point about Etienne, noting that while his passing game production was solid, he didn’t see the field often in third-and-long situations.

“The Jaguars put Etienne on the field on third-and-7-plus plays only 6% of the time, which shows what they thought of him on passing downs,” Walder wrote.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano is projecting that Etienne lands a three-year, $39 million deal in free agency with $20 million guaranteed.

One insider believes that Etienne will be heading elsewhere in free agency.