As the first wave of free agency passed, Sean Payton waved back from his office window.
Mike Evans? Good luck!
Romeo Doubs? See ya!
Wan’Dale Robinson? Au revoir!
Christian Kirk? Adios!
The Broncos coach has what’s left of his heart in the right place. But he might want to get his eyes checked. Better yet, Payton might want to have the receivers they’re running it back with have their peepers looked at.
Only the Titans (who featured a rookie QB) and Browns (bad QBs, then Shedeur Sanders) elected to punt more times during the 2025 regular season than the Broncos did (75).
Only the Jaguars dropped more passes (45) than Denver’s 43, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. And only Jacksonville (8.0%) had a higher team drop rate than the Broncos’ 7.0%.
Don’t know about you, but if I’m sitting on a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract, I’d be sorely tempted to overpay in the short term now for a more sure-handed WR 2 or borderline WR 1. Alas.
“My brother’s the worst at this,” Payton had told reporters just before the 2024 trade deadline. “He’s the worst at free agency, and he’s the worst at the trade deadline. He just wants to see action. Then right after the action takes place, he never goes back and reflects and says, ‘Well, that was a bad signing,’ or, ‘That was a bad trade.’
“I say that, I kid him, but I think that there’s so much more that goes into it relative to whether you’re trading a player (or) acquiring a player. Contracts go into it, vision goes into it, and locker room goes into it. There are a lot of details that go into that.”
True. Fit matters, especially in a place as cold and cynical as an NFL locker room.
But culture can’t catch touchdown passes. Chemistry alone won’t move the chains.
And young, top-shelf quarterbacks on cost-friendly deals don’t last forever.
From 2020-2023, during Joe Burrows’ initial contract in Cincinnati, the Bengals reportedly spent $287 million on free-agent deals — an average of $71.78 million per year.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Chiefs in 2018, the second season of Patrick Mahomes’ rookie contract, spent $57.3 million on 26 players from outside their roster.
After the second year of Bo Nix’s current deal, the Broncos had, as of Monday afternoon, spent zippo on nada.
“Hope what we’ve got will get better” is a strategy, granted, although former Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt has seen how well that one usually works out. Payton’s putting a lot of faith in a good group of coaches to squeeze more out of the status quo. It’s putting a lot of faith in new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. It’s also putting a lot of faith in another first-year wideout, which is a risk in and of itself.
The Broncos have picks No. 30 (first round), No. 62 (second round) and No. 94 (third round) to lead off their 2026 NFL Draft haul. Seven wideouts were taken among picks 25-75 last spring, including Pat Bryant III to Denver at No. 74.
Their average stat line in 2025: 28 catches, 364 receiving yards, three touchdowns, two drops. Bryant has all kinds of size (6-foot-2, 204 pounds), catch radius, and upside, but his production last year (31 catches, 378 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, three drops), along with all the ups and downs that came along with it, proved fairly typical of rookies drafted around his salary slot.
You may not get more cap value in 2026 from, say, a Doubs, who grabbed 75 balls and six scores last fall and just inked a four-year, $68-millon deal with the Patriots. But you’ll almost certainly get more production, historically, when compared to a low-first-round-to-early-third-round rookie wideout.
“When you have a dominant O-line and a dominant defensive line, people want to come here,” left tackle Garett Bolles told us in January.
“We’ve got a great running back room, we’ve got great receivers. Obviously, we need some key players to come in and do what they need to do by getting points on the scoreboard. We got a phenomenal defense. We have everything we need. We just need a couple more playmakers, and sky’s the limit for this team.”
The sky here, sadly, remains only so high, so long as the Broncos value continuity over, well, math. Take Adam Trautman. Super dude. He was tied for 46th among NFL tight ends last season in receiving first downs with 11. Old friends Greg Dulchich and Noah Fant collected 14 and 13, respectively.
According to Spotrac.com, after his latest Broncos extension, Trautman now ranks 28th among NFL tight ends in average salary, at $5.67 million — ahead of Fant ($4.37 million), Dulcich ($3.25 million) and Tyler Higbee ($3.0 million). That trio averaged 28.3 catches and 2.3 receiving scores last fall, if you’re curious. Trautman collected 20 and (checks notes) one, respectively.
A Payton quote from last August has been doing the rounds lately. Remember when the Broncos coach likened free agency to garage sale finds? In hindsight, it was a harbinger.
“My parents loved garage sale-ing,” Payton told reporters that day. “That was their deal, one thing they enjoyed together. And I think I had 10 couches growing up …
“So, they come home with a new couch, and you’d remove the old one. And you were so excited — it was a sectional — until you sat in the left corner, and it wiggled. And then you realized why it was a free agent.”
Tell that to Talanoa Hufanga. Fit may catch on. Culture may catch on. But if nobody can catch the darn football, what’s the point?