I have been analyzing President Barack Obama’s men’s NCAA Tournament brackets since he released his very first in March 2009.
He tends to stick to chalk. This year’s edition is no exception — the same goes for his picks in the women’s tournament — but there are a few interesting quirks worth noting. Let’s take a look:
ChampArizona over Duke
Audacity factor: 2/10
Duke, the No. 1 overall seed, is the most popular pick to win it all, so taking it to the championship game is not going out on much of a limb — Arizona is another popular pick, and also a No. 1 seed. Perhaps he was listening to Charles Barkley on TV last night, when he called the 2026 NCAA Tournament the “Arizona Ass-Kicking Invitational.” (Filed under great minds think alike: I also have ‘Zona winning it all in my bracket.)
Other Final Four picksIowa State over Michigan in the Midwest; Illinois over Florida in the South.
Audacity factor: 7.5/10
In an era of college basketball where picking all four No. 1 seeds is not just the safe bet but the smart one, Obama goes a little unconventional, probably buying Iowa State nearly knocking off Arizona in the Big 12 tournament — or perhaps simply not buying Michigan (the championship pick of The Athletic’s resident bracket maven CJ Moore). Illinois advancing over the defending champ Gators (after knocking off 2025 runner-up Houston two days earlier) is a bold call and presumably a little home-state favoritism.
Biggest upsetNo. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville in the first round
Audacity factor: 6.5/10
Oddsmakers are giving USF nearly a one-third shot at an upset, which ranks pretty high among all first-round games! Presumably, Obama filled out his bracket before the news that Louisville star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. would miss the game, but even before that, smart prognosticators — like our Bracket Breaker duo of Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner — were eying this one.
Sweet 1614 teams seeded 1-4
Audacity factor: 2/10
Pragmatic — and likely accurate! — but boring, with the outliers being 5-seed Vanderbilt (whose win over 4-seed Nebraska this weekend wouldn’t even qualify as an upset) and 6-seed Tennessee upending 3-seed Virginia in the Round of 32. Obama is bullish on the Volunteer State!
Other notable upsetsNo. 10 Central Florida over No. 7 UCLA in the first round
Audacity factor: 5/10
At this point, simply spotting any seed upsets beyond a 9-seed over an 8-seed is cause for enthusiasm by amateur Barack-etologists everywhere. UCF is battle-tested from a season in the Big 12; UCLA is battling some injury issues. Not an unreasonable pick!
Final analysis
It is worth noting that in his 2025 bracket, Obama correctly picked three of the four Final Four teams, predicting Duke would top Florida in the title game. Let’s give him credit for getting the Gators to the championship game, even if he over-relied on Duke (a theme throughout his bracket picks over the past decade-plus of revealing them). Obama’s biggest whiff last year? Picking Tennessee to reach the Final Four — between last year’s pick and this year making the Vols his only remotely iffy Sweet 16 pick, there is a clear affinity for Rocky Top.