The Ravens posted a losing record last season and missed the playoffs, but that’s not worrying the football prognosticators. Despite firing their head coach and an exodus of talent in free agency, bettors believe in Baltimore. In fact, they have the highest win total over/under odds at 11.5, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Ravens would have to win four more games than they managed last season to his the over. Finishing 8-9 last season, they fell just shy of a postseason berth, subsequently firing John Harbaugh after 18 seasons. Harbaugh quickly landed on his feet, and they hired first-team head coach Jesse Minter as his replacement.
Obviously, the betting establishment believes the Ravens made the right hire in Minter, but he’s also inheriting a good team. Despite their record last year, they still have QB Lamar Jackson, one of the best players in football. The Ravens’ success over the years has largely been tied to his health, and he wasn’t healthy last year.
Still, despite adding DE Trey Hendrickson this offseason, Baltimore lost a lot of players this offseason. A big part of the Ravens’ offensive identity involved blockers at skill positions. They lost two tight ends and their Pro Bowl fullback, two of them following Harbaugh to the Giants. Somewhat surprisingly, they also let RB Keaton Mitchell get away, initially a restricted free agent.
The Ravens’ biggest loss, though, was C Tyler Linderbaum, who reset the market for his position. They even lost their decorated punter, as well as starting S Alohi Gilman. The addition of Trey Hendrickson addresses a major need, but they originally intended to trade for Maxx Crosby. Of course, they don’t have to part with two first-round picks now, either.
Jesse Minter comes to the Ravens—or rather, returns—as a highly respected up-and-coming coach. Long associated with the Harbaughs, including Jim both at Michigan and in Los Angeles the past two seasons, he was one of the most coveted names during this hiring cycle.
But plenty of coveted coaches fail to live up to their promise, even when inheriting good teams. Bettors feel less confident in the Bills’ Joe Brady, for example, who inherits Josh Allen and an 11-6 roster. Buffalo’s over/under win total is 10.5, tied with the Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, Packers, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a 10-win season during which they beat the Ravens twice. Yet their win total is just 8.5, having never won fewer than nine games this decade. Of course, Pittsburgh also has a new head coach in Mike McCarthy. But that wasn’t a problem for Baltimore, as the bettors see it.