A surprising second-round exit from the defending champion and No. 1 Florida Gators — at the hands of the No. 9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes — changed the national championship outlook for the 2026 men’s NCAA Tournament.

Other top seeds, Arizona, Duke and Michigan, were only lightly tested through the first weekend of the tournament, and remain the top favorites on the odds boards. But as the first top seed to lose in the second round to a No. 9 seed since 2018, Florida’s unexpected exit did dramatically shake things up for the South Region.

Outside of Iowa upending Florida, it was mostly a chalky start to March Madness.

“It was a chalky opening weekend in the NCAA Tournament with favorites winning 22 straight games from Thursday to Saturday,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said. “On the futures book, St. John’s and Arkansas are the biggest remaining liabilities to cut down the nets, while all the 1-seeds are positive outcomes.”

A loaded field also makes for an intriguing second weekend. Fourteen of the top 17 teams in KenPom’s net rankings advanced to the Sweet 16, setting the stage for a weekend filled with memorable matchups.

Remaining No. 1 seeds stay on top

The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (+300 on FanDuel) remain atop the latest national championship winner odds after cruising to victory over No. 9 Saint Louis in the second round.

Showing no signs of concern in the tournament after losing in the Big Ten finals, Michigan is the only team favored by double digits during its Sweet 16 matchup. Next up for the Wolverines is the potent No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (+10000) in the Midwest Region. Although Alabama is playing without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway following his pre-tournament drug arrest, the Crimson Tide still looked threatening during a blowout second-round win over Texas Tech.

Keeping pace with the Wolverines in title odds are the Arizona Wildcats (+330). Tested in the second round against No. 9 Utah State, the West’s top seed regrouped for a strong second-half push. Although Arizona faces a stiff test in the next round from the SEC tournament-champion and No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (+4500), the Wildcats are the healthiest No. 1 seed left.

It wasn’t always easy for the Duke Blue Devils (+420) in victories over No. 16 seed Siena and TCU. Playing without injured starting point guard Caleb Foster, Duke continues to advance through March. Duke’s path through the East Region remains daunting. Facing Big East champion and No. 5 seed St. John’s will test Duke’s physicality in the next round. But, coming off a strong opening weekend, Player-of-the-Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer remains the toughest individual cover for any remaining team left in the field.

Houston leads second tier after Florida’s loss

Iowa’s upset win over Florida shifted the landscape among secondary title contenders heading into the Sweet 16.

The Houston Cougars (+750) are the greatest beneficiary of the Gators’ early demise as the No. 2 seed in the South Region. Houston climbed up from +1100 odds after the first round to within striking distance of the No. 1 seeds as the new favorite to make the Final Four out of the South.

Although Houston receives an unplanned host-city advantage in the next two rounds, the Cougars will have their hands full with the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (+1500). Shaky down the stretch during the regular season, Illinois won convincingly in both early matchups and could give Houston trouble with the nation’s No. 2 offense.

Illinois also has to love its draw should they advance past Houston in the South Region. The Fighting Illini toppled both Nebraska and Iowa during the Big Ten’s regular season and would be favored over both in a hypothetical Elite Eight game.

A preseason favorite peaking at the right time, the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (+1500) are in a solid position in the West Region after No. 3 seed Gonzaga was upset by No. 11 seed Texas (+20000). After sitting at +5000 odds before the Big Ten tournament, Purdue is the biggest riser in national title odds over the last two weeks, jumping from an afterthought to the fifth overall in the title market.

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline entering the Sweet 16 is the health of Joshua Jefferson. If the All-American returns from a sprained ankle, then the Iowa State Cyclones (+1700) are capable of matching any team left in the field. Even with Jefferson’s health in question, No. 2 Iowa State is still favored over the No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers (+5500) in the Sweet 16.

Long shots also get a sizable boost entering the Sweet 16

Among the remaining field, many long shots also received an odds boost following the opening weekend, while other somewhat-long shots saw their odds lengthen.

The No. 2 Connecticut Huskies (+2700) were previously sixth among national title contenders entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Now that the Huskies are through to the Sweet 16, they face a potentially rugged battle with the No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (+3000) in the East Region — dropping the Huskies to eighth on the board in the process.

It also hurts both UConn and Michigan State that top-seed Duke looms in the Elite Eight. First, the Blue Devils must get past the Big East champion St. John’s Red Storm (+3000) in the Sweet 16. Rapidly elevating from +6600 odds pre-tournament, St. John’s remains a dangerous outfit behind head coach Rick Pitino after the buzzer-beating victory over Kansas.

Of course, the real long-shot matchup goes down in the South Region when the No. 4 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers (+6000) face the Iowa Hawkeyes (+10000). Nebraska’s win over Vanderbilt in the second round jolted the Huskers from +10000 odds to +6000 odds as one of the biggest risers in the overall title market.

Iowa also saw its odds jump considerably from +25000 odds entering March. Now the classic football rivalry takes center stage on the hardwood, after the two programs split the regular-season series.