All quiet on the football front.
The NFL Draft is more than three weeks away.
Free agency was almost three weeks ago.
The Patriots are busy wrapping up their Pro Day tour and pre-draft visits at team headquarters, where their draft board will soon be finalized.
In the meantime, we wait, wonder and predict until the news cycle roars again in Foxboro. Let’s roll.
1. Most improved in AFC East
The Patriots’ free-agent class was widely met with passing grades, including a solid ‘B’ from me.
But grading on a division curve, that becomes an ‘A’ given no one improved more than they did.
The Bills’ top acquisitions — D.J. Moore and Bradley Chubb — are new starters at positions of need, though is no upside to adding veteran additions like them. Moore is coming off his worst statistical season, and Chubb has a significant injury history. Meanwhile, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Romeo Doubs, the Patriots’ new best offensive lineman and wide receiver, respectively, should play the best football of their careers in New England. Throw in rock-solid edge defender Dre’Mont Jones, new fullback Reggie Gilliam and reigning All-Pro safety Kevin Byard, there’s added oomph across this roster and fewer soft spots.
Buffalo is still favored to win the AFC East by the slimmest of margins at most sportsbooks. Why? The power of former MVP quarterback Josh Allen, a superior offensive line, run game and the benefits of facing a second-place schedule. For my money, this division is a coin flip.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins are engaged in a full-on tank, and the Jets are the Jets, fated for failure until further notice. In case you missed it: Geno Smith, a quarterback the worst team in football couldn’t dump fast enough this offseason, is back in New York where his career started. Enough said.
2. A.J. Brown trade in holding pattern
My belief is A.J. Brown will be a Patriot by July.
For now, it’s hurry up and wait.
Any quick review of the financial implications of a Brown trade reveals the Eagles should only trade him if they are blown away by an offer that makes a $43.5 million cap hit worth taking before June 1. This was always the case, but has only recently garnered more attention as the buzz around a potential deal began to fizzle after the combine. If the Eagles trade Brown, the dead cap penalty falls to $16.35 million, and the team actually gains cap room for 2026.
Presumably, the Pats would acquire Brown for a high 2027 draft pick and a late-round selection or a young receiver like Kayshon Boutte. Boutte could help replace Brown’s downfield production, though his value is slightly diminished by the fact he’s entering a contract year. Ditto for DeMario Douglas, a slot-only option who would help replenish the yards-after-the-catch the Eagles would lose by dealing Brown.
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown gestures towards the crowd during pre-game warm-ups before an NFL wild card playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)
The Rams are the only other known suitor, courtesy of a report from The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, which may or may not be tied to the increasing off-field headaches brought on by their star receiver Puka Nacua. Either way, expect a resolution to the Brown saga in a few months.
3. High stakes for 2026 draft
The 2024 draft was about finding a franchise quarterback.
Last year was laying a foundation for the Mike Vrabel era.
This spring, the stakes of the Patriots’ draft are twofold: maintaining momentum with what has rapidly developed into an almost completed rebuild and elite defensive potential in 2026.
Generally speaking, the Pats aren’t deep enough to be counted as perennial contenders, but free agency helped pad their offensive depth chart well enough (see: Doubs, Vera-Tucker, Gilliam, etc). Defensively, however, the Patriots are dangerously thin at premium positions. Replicating the performance they had in the postseason will either require more exceptional injury luck, or nailing a few defensive draft picks to give him immediate depth.
The Pats need a young edge rusher, cornerback and linebacker or safety to enter their positional rotations. That way, if/when Harold Landry, Carlton Davis or Byard goes down, they can buy themselves some time, which will be at a premium playing a first-place schedule with a bullseye on their back in the AFC.
4. Draft prediction I: Doubling up at edge rusher
Mike Vrabel’s defense needs edge help. Badly.
Any injury to Jones, Harold Landry or even stud defensive tackle Milton Williams will plunge their four-man pass rush near the bottom of the league. It might be there anyway, and was in the playoffs, when no defense blitzed more often than the Patriots.
New England Patriots linebacker Harold Landry rushes during the second half of an NFL wild card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers last January in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)
The Pats will draft an edge rusher in the first three rounds, and bank on them adding another on Day 3. It’s a deep class, which may encourage them to wait longer than the first round to take one. But the projected options at 31st overall — Clemson’s T.J. Parker, Missouri’s Zion Young and Texas A&M’s Cassius Howell — are all potential Day 1 starters.
The bet here is those players, including Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, are too good to pass up. If the Pats trade back, look for Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas or Texas Tech’s Romello Height near the top of the second round. Both have reportedly taken pre-draft visits to Foxboro, as has Young.
5. Draft prediction II: No WR until Day 3
It’s a time-honored tradition.
Fans and media across New England try to mock-draft a first-round wide receiver into existence, something that has only happened once in the last 30 years. This year, the names are Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion, Washington’s Denzel Boston and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson or Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr., if the front office feels frisky enough to trade up.
I can’t see it. As a head coach, Vrabel has invested more than half of his first-round picks into the trenches. The Patriots need depth along both lines, especially at edge defender and right tackle.
A player like Clemson offensive tackle Blake Miller may be seen as a luxury pick, with Morgan Moses slated to start again in 2026, but the investment is worth it if Miller or another tackle (like Arizona State’s Max Iheanachor or Utah’s Caleb Lomu) develops into a starter for 2027 and beyond. The Pats should want a rookie to serve as their swing tackle in the interim. New free-agent addition James Hudson III, their current swing tackle, is a fringe player at best.
So considering their needs up front, widening hole at tight end, a potential Brown deal on the horizon and projected leap from 2025 third-rounder Kyle Williams, my sense is receiver slides to the back burner come draft weekend.
6. Draft prediction III: Safety on Day 2
New England Patriots safety Craig Woodson reacts during the second quarter of a Jan. 12 playoff game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
A throwback, Belichick-era tradition.
The early-round head scratcher.
Or is it?
By replacing Jaylinn Hawkins with Byard, the Patriots simultaneously upgraded their present and intensified their future need at safety. Byard will turn 33 in August. Dell Pettus is the No. 3 safety behind Byard and Craig Woodson. Pettus is a player who has flashed but may be best suited for a special teams role.
I expect the Patriots to add a rookie here earlier than most project. Perhaps Penn State’s Zakee Wheatley, another pre-draft visitor, is the pick on Day 2.
7. Beware silly season
In the void between free agency and the draft, there is silly season.
Media reports and rumors about teams’ interest in different prospects fly without any substance or consequence. Two years ago, Eliot Wolf supposedly coveted J.J. McCarthy ahead of the 2024 draft. Of course, he stayed put and drafted Drake Maye at third overall; the most logical and obvious outcome all along.
The only reliable draft intel typically surfaces the week of the draft, like Will Campbell being the Patriots’ top target last season. It’s no fun, but best not to get caught up in a time of year famous for misleading.
8. Kraft bingo
Traditionally, Patriots owner Robert Kraft meets with reporters at the NFL Annual Meeting, which is scheduled for early this week.
If he does, consider your own tradition: the Kraft press conference bingo card.
Fill your eight squares in any order with mentions of the following: how Kraft used to sit in the bleachers as a fan at the old Foxboro Stadium; his eternal optimism; how nothing is more important to him outside his family than the Patriots; how successful teams must draft well; the team’s recent ticket price hikes being favorable relative to other franchises; a push for an 18-game season; praise for his quarterback; Vrabel’s history with the team as a player.
Kraft, even in his old age, is nothing if not consistent.
9. Vrabel topics
Whether or not Kraft speaks, Vrabel will sit down with reporters on Tuesday as part of the annual AFC coaches breakfast scheduled by the league.
Here are the topics I expect to be covered: how content the Patriots are with their receiving corps, how Vrabel views his edge rushers (including Landry’s recovery from a knee injury), his willingness to deal future picks from what is expected to be a more talented 2027 draft, promoting new inside linebackers coach Vinny DePalma, challenges of resetting after a Super Bowl run, areas to improve for Drake Maye and more.
10. Did you know? pt. I
The $68 million maximum value of Doubs’ contract is more money than Julian Edelman earned over his 12-year career with the Patriots ($64.45 million in total cash, per Spotrac).
11. Did you know? pt. II
Over their 66-year franchise history, the Patriots have used a first-round pick on a player at every offensive and defensive position except fullback.