Reviewing first round receiver busts and the good news for Rams

The media mock draft machines are in hyper drive connecting the Los Angeles Rams to pass catchers early in next month’s NFL Draft. From Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, and Carnell Tate to Kenyon Sadiq, the Rams are in store to have no shortage of options when the clock starts ticking on the thirteenth overall selection.

What is the recent history of first round receivers? There are certainly busts each year; however, Los Angeles may be well-placed to avoid such a folly.

Let’s take a look at every first round receiver since 2020 and draw some high level conclusions.

2020Henry Ruggs (Raiders); 12thJerry Jeudy (Broncos); 15thCeeDee Lamb (Cowboys); 17thJalen Reagor (Eagles); 21stJustin Jefferson (Vikings); 22ndBrandon Aiyuk (49ers); 25th

Ruggs was a unique case and his legal troubles ran him out of the NFL. Jalen Reagor fizzled out quickly in Philly. Brandon Aiyuk will be released by the 49ers at some point this offseason; however, prior to his injury he was a great player for San Francisco.

This class was more good than bad, though Reagor was really the only straightforward bust.

2021Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals); 5thJaylen Waddle (Dolphins); 6thDeVonta Smith (Eagles); 10thKadarius Toney (Giants); 20thRashod Bateman (Ravens); 27th

Toney and Bateman should be considered the misses relative to the rest of the group. Bateman is someone who gets hyped up every offseason and we are still awaiting his big breakout.

2022Drake London (Falcons); 8thGarrett Wilson (Jets); 10thChris Olave (Saints); 11thJameson Williams (Lions); 12thJahan Dotson (Commanders); 16thTreylon Burks (Titans); 18th

There is a clear line after Williams in terms of separating the wheat from the chaff. Dotson was quickly traded to the Eagles and Burks never really made a splash in the NFL. The rest of the group are keepers.

2023Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks); 20thQuentin Johnston (Chargers); 21stZay Flowers (Ravens); 22ndJordan Addison (Vikings); 23rd

The early returns on Johnston would indicate that he was a miss for the other LA team. Year three showed signs of a turnaround and the jury should still be out for now.

2024Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Cardinals); 4thMalik Nabers (Giants); 6thRome Odunze (Bears); 9thBrian Thomas (Jaguars); 23rdXavier Worthy (Chiefs); 28thRicky Pearsall (49ers); 31stXavier Legette (Panthers); 32nd

The last two to three receivers in this group are still out to prove themselves at the professional level. Worthy is useful but he was taken in the late first because he fills a niche role. There is a lot riding on Pearsall to lead a lackluster 49ers receiving corps this season.

2025Travis Hunter (Jaguars); 2ndTetairoa McMillan (Panthers); 8thEmeka Egbuka (Buccaneers); 19thMatthew Golden (Packers); 23rd

Hunter and Golden seem to be the most suspect picks of this group. Hunter can return to health and prove me wrong.

The silver lining for Rams

The Rams are picking much earlier than they are accustomed to with the thirteenth overall selection. It’s the best draft pick they’ve had in years.

Fortunately, when we comb through the list of recent first round receivers it seems you are most likely to miss your target later on day one of the draft. LA will likely be in the market for a pass catcher. As long as they don’t trade back (I maintain it’s more likely they instead trade up), history favors their chances of landing an impact player.

Reviewing first round receiver busts and the good news for Rams

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