Former Minnesota Vikings tight end Stu Voigt announces the team’s selection with the 102nd overall pick during the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft on Friday, April 25, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The draft runs through April 26.
Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
The Vikings have a new GM this year, which arguably makes it more difficult to predict their first-round draft strategy than it has been in years.
To maximize value, most analytics models generally favor trading down unless you’re going to draft a QB, in which case trading up or staying put may be the best option.
It’s unlikely that the Vikings will draft another QB this year. J.J. McCarthy was very disappointing in his first season, but he’s still just 23 years old and may very well improve. The Vikings have also taken a flyer on a reclamation project in Kyler Murray, who is the odds-on favorite to start at QB this season, and they’ve given Carson Wentz a $3 million contract.
Vikings executive Rob Brzezinski speaks with Vikings.com’s Gabe Henderson during a sit-down discussion on Feb 17, 2022, outlining organizational philosophy, front-office processes, and the hiring of head coach Kevin O’Connell, offering insight into Minnesota’s leadership structure and long-term football operations approach. Mandatory Credit: YouTube
The QB room seems to be full, and with the 18th pick in the draft, it’s highly unlikely that the Vikings will be in a position to trade up for one of the top prospects, anyway. All this suggests that a trade down might not be a bad option.
Another point in favor of a trade down is the fact that the Vikings’ greatest positions of need at present are non-premium positions and/or positions with flatter value curves, including safety, cornerback, running back, and interior offensive lineman.
These positions are a bit more difficult to predict, which means that it is advantageous to get as many bites at the apple as possible, and starting-caliber players are almost as likely to be found in the second round as they are in the first. Players like S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, IOL Emmanuel Pregnon, and CB Colton Hood would be natural options for the Vikings if they were to trade back to the end of the first round or early second.
Aug 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Lewis Cine (6) warms up before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Yet, maximizing value is not the Vikings’ only goal in the draft this year: jobs are on the line, and interim GM Rob Brzezinski and the rest of his front office will want to convince ownership to keep them around. In his first draft, recently fired GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah infamously traded down and whiffed on a handful of picks, and it’s reasonable to think that Brzezinski will want to distance himself from that episode as much as possible.
One way to do this would be to land a blue-chip prospect, either through a trade-up or a draft-day fall. RB Jeremiyah Love would be one fun option—one of the most talented draft prospects, his stock is hurt by the modern NFL’s devaluing of running backs. A more likely option would be S Caleb Downs or CB Mansoor Delane.
On the other hand, Kwesi’s drafts also suffered in part from the fact that he often traded away his picks for players or prospects. The current Vikings brass may therefore be reticent of spending big draft capital to move up for a top prospect, and they may decide it’s safest to just stay put. S Dillon Thieneman seems to be the most popular player mocked to the Vikings at pick 18.
Auburn Tigers defensive end Keldric Faulk (15) celebrates a stop as the Auburn Tigers take on the South Alabama Jaguars at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. Auburn Tigers lead South Alabama Jaguars 28-9 at halftime.
In part, the Vikings’ draft strategy may depend on how the situation with EDGE Jonathan Greenard shakes out. If the team decides to trade Greenard, they will suddenly be in need of an EDGE, and they may try to make a play for a prospect like Keldric Faulk.
At the end of the day, trying to predict the Vikings’ first pick in the 2026 NFL draft is about as hopeless as trying to predict which of this year’s draft prospects will go on to succeed in the NFL. We simply don’t know enough about the interim GM to know which draft strategy he will favor.
But no matter which direction they decide to go, it will shed light on the Vikings’ front office and the team’s strategy for the months and years ahead, and it may well dictate who will be leading the team into the future.