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It’s safe to say that Luke Fickell hasn’t had the start he imagined over his first two years with the Wisconsin Badgers.
After a 7-6 campaign in his inaugural season, Fickell and Co. missed a bowl game for the first time in 22 years in 2024, going 5-7 and losing all three rivalry games on the schedule.
It’s been a tumultuous two years for the Badgers, especially at the quarterback position, where Wisconsin has constantly faced turnover and injuries to its starters.
But, the team’s defense has seriously declined, especially against the run in 2024, and Wisconsin’s schedules are only getting tougher in the new Big Ten. The disappointing campaign called for serious changes, as Fickell oversaw a roster that lost two dozen players to the transfer portal this offseason, while bringing in 20 others.
As a result, the Badgers are looking to field a more competitive roster, albeit against a tougher slew of opponents, in 2025, hoping to turn the ship around. However, projections have them missing a bowl game for the second consecutive season, with most oddsmakers currently favoring them to win less than six games.
So, how hot is Luke Fickell’s seat entering Year 3 with the Badgers?
In my eyes, Fickell’s seat is relatively cool right now, despite the inconsistent results over the past two years. However, my expectations for the head coach have declined, due to his struggles with in-game decisions and coaching staff mishaps so far.
Fickell is looking to get back to Wisconsin’s roots this season, hiring offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, who brings along a run-first mindset, and bringing in bigger bodies along the defensive line to better stop the run.
More importantly, Fickell has still found ways to churn out top-30 recruiting classes, with some of those 2024 prospects starting to find their way onto the two-deep this season.
Of course, player retention is going to be key for the head coach to build any kind of stability, but the coming years seem to be more promising with Wisconsin’s strong 2024 and 2025 recruiting classes.
Currently, I’d put Fickell’s hot seat rating at a 3. I expect him to see a fourth year, even if Wisconsin doesn’t make a bowl game again, given the nature of his contract.
Additionally, many of his recruits will begin carving out bigger roles next season as they get into their sophomore and junior seasons, allowing Fickell to dive deeper into the team’s identity.
But, it’ll all depend on the most important position in football: quarterback. Fickell has hit the transfer portal for three straight years to find a solution at the position, opting for seniors each time.
Tanner Mordecai and Tyler Van Dyke both missed time during their tenures as starters at Wisconsin, while Braedyn Locke really struggled while serving as the backup during both seasons.
Now, it’s Billy Edwards’s turn, and he’ll be out of eligibility after the season. That would mean Wisconsin would either turn to sophomore Danny O’Neil or freshman Carter Smith for the 2026 season. Will either be ready to be a frontline starter in the Big Ten? Or will it be another year of portaling for the Badgers at the most important position in football?
Nonetheless, I don’t see Fickell’s seat being hot at the moment. Things could change in a year, however, if the direction of the program hasn’t improved.