The Athletic has live coverage of USMNT vs Belgium in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. 

For every game of the World Cup, the United States men’s national team has created near-record betting action, which has forced oddsmakers to scramble. The next match figures to have the highest handle, but it also involved a wild twist 24 hours before kickoff that forced sportsbooks to adjust even further.

Folarin Balogun, the Americans’ leading scorer, is now eligible and expected to start against Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday, despite receiving a red card in their previous game.

“He’s worth about 15 to 20 cents,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “It’s difficult on the statistics side, but he’s a key component. You want your team at full strength. There are others who can take his place, but it’s important, as threatening as he is.”

As soon as the breaking news hit social media, prediction market Kalshi moved from exactly 50 percent for the U.S. to advance to 52.9 percent, which is the equivalent of shifting from +100 to -112 on the moneyline.

Diehard fans on why they support the USMNT

Lia Griffin

Caesars Sportsbook reflected a similar adjustment, moving the USMNT from -108 to -120. On the three-way regulation line, the Americans shifted from +164 to +144 odds.
Even before Balogun’s status changed, Caesars had taken more than 80 percent of both the tickets and the money on the United States across the three-way and advancement markets. Thus, early backers were rewarded with clear closing-line value. However, most of the money typically arrives on game day.

“Team USA has already generated record wagering volume across tickets and handle throughout the tournament,” Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said via email. “Although Argentina vs. Cape Verde temporarily surpassed those numbers during its thrilling back-and-forth matchup, Team USA is expected to reclaim the top spot and set another wagering record.”

While the USMNT has consistently rewarded backers so far, oddsmakers are still not skewing the odds. In the 2000s, Las Vegas sportsbooks would routinely make those adjustments for heavily-backed teams, such as the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Lakers, but they have since changed that philosophy.

“We have to stay consistent with what we do,” Avello said. “We have to make sure our customers are getting a fair price. That’s just how we have to do business. We know which side they want to bet, but we would rather put up a fair price.”

The main rationale for this philosophical change is the sheer volume of advanced bettors and betting syndicates. Simply, the house is more concerned with their wagers than that of recreational wagers, even if the betting public represents 90 to 95 percent of the money.

The casino has a similar approach with a roulette wheel. If gamblers all wager on “red” for a single spin, the house welcomes the action because they know they have the mathematical edge. In sports, the house also has an edge — unless a respected bettor places a wager. When that occurs, bookmakers conclude the odds need to be adjusted.

So far, sharps have not been betting against the USMNT. Therefore, there is no need to change the odds, unless significant news occurs — like Balogun’s status. Plus, much like the casino, recreational sports bettors will take their winnings and continue to place wagers against the house’s edge. So, in due time, sportsbooks can ignore the overwhelming splits because they will eventually grind profit, even if they take a big hit on Team USA.

One caveat is that the United States has continued to outperform expectations. The betting lines can adjust along the way because experts now view the Americans differently.

“Victories over the 37th-, 25th- and 64th-ranked nations are a different proposition than overcoming the world’s 10th-ranked team, particularly with the expectations of an entire nation resting on Team USA’s shoulders,” Mucklow said ahead of the U.S. facing Belgium. “Liability should not be a reason to defer customers away with overzealous odds adjustments.”

The winner of Spain and Portugal looms next in the quarterfinals, potentially followed by France (+170 favorite). If the United States continues this run against stiffer competition, that could change the entire landscape.