Can The Dirty Birdies Rack Up Eight Wins Down In The ATL? originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

2024 marked the seventh straight losing season for the Falcons — Will 2025 bust the slump?

It’s no secret quarterback is the most consequential position in all of pro sports. Therefore, anytime the role gets thrown into a blender, it’s worthy of closer analysis. Many of us raised an eyebrow when ATL signed 36-year-old Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract, including a $50 million signing bonus and $100 million in guaranteed cash. Given the aging veteran had just torn his right Achilles tendon just a few months prior, who could blame us for questioning their decision-making?

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Then, as if we weren’t adequately confused already, the Falcons’ brass turns around and drafts former Washington Husky Michael Penix Jr. at the 1.08. So many questions arose… Did they regret the Cousins signing? Did he have a setback? Had they intended for Penix to serve as a backup for the majority of his rookie deal? Perhaps they lost their minds? Only time would tell.

Surprising to very few (if any) of us, Cousins played like he had cinderblocks attached to his cleats all of last season, to objectively poor results — 250.1 passing yards per game, 88.6 passer rating, 18 TD: 16 INT. Oof. Not what you hoped for in a long-term investment by NFL standards. Now Cousins is yet to show up for OTAs, leaving the entire football world wondering what exactly is going on in the dirty dirty.

Removing QB play from the picture (no small feat), the rest of the Falcons’ skill positions grade out really well, including the offensive line. In short, everything’s in place to make a run at the Wild Card, if not the division itself — if they get the shot-calling situation under wraps.

Even if everything gets settled under center, there’s still an issue with a defensive unit finishing firmly in the bottom-10 last season (if not worse). Atlanta’s macros stunk in 2024 (24.9 points allowed per game, 5.5 yards per play, -0.04 EPA/play). However, the executives in charge did make that their sole focus in the draft. ATL spent two first-round picks (1.15, 1.26) shoring up the D-line with rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce as well as acquiring safeties in both the third and fourth (Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman). Things could change in a hurry with that type of upgrade.

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Take into account more than half their losses were by six points or less, and it’s not hard to see a best-case runout landing the Falcons in the playoffs this postseason.

LAGHEZZA’S LEAN:

While I’m not particularly touting their chances for some miracle playoff run, I am leaning toward ATLANTA FALCONS OVER 7.5 WINS (-135) on Fanduel. Why? Simply put, they’ll be facing the AFC South as their inter-conference opposition — and no division’s weaker by an order of magnitude. As long as the Falcons can steal 2-3 wins against the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, and Titans they should have the talent to get them the rest of the way.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 2, 2025, where it first appeared.