{"id":1001149,"date":"2026-09-15T04:12:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T04:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1001149\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T04:12:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T04:12:17","slug":"win-probability-joebucsfan-com-tampa-bay-bucs-blog-buccaneers-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1001149\/","title":{"rendered":"Win Probability! – JoeBucsFan.com – Tampa Bay Bucs Blog, Buccaneers News"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\tWin Probability!
\nSeptember 15th, 2026 <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

Ball security wasn\u2019t an issue for Baker Mayfield on this play. It was too many times, otherwise.<\/p>\n

One of the sports fads of the third decade of the 21st century is a complete and total mystery to Joe.<\/p>\n

What is the deal with win probabilities? And why do people care? It has to be some gambling thing, right? America cannot be this obsessed with stat geekery, can we?<\/p>\n

So-and-so just farted into the catcher\u2019s face mask. That gives his team a win probability of 42 percent. <\/p>\n

Who. Gives. A. Eff?!<\/p>\n

But to play along with the numbers crowd, how badly was the Bucs\u2019 win probability after Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield played Santa Claus in Cincinnati? The Bucs still had a better than expected<\/a> win probability, per Nick Shook of NFL.com.<\/p>\n

NEXT GEN STATS INSIGHT:Baker Mayfield\u2019s three lost fumbles decreased the Buccaneers\u2019 win probability by a combined 32.9 percentage points in Sunday\u2019s loss to the Bengals.<\/p>\n

The way some folks talk about turnovers, Joe figured Mayfield doomed the Bucs, maybe a two percent shot. Not only did the Bucs nearly make a comeback, they had a third of a chance to win.<\/p>\n

Joe is more of a win certainty guy. As long as you have more points than the other team when the clock hits 0:00, you win.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what Joe is concerned with. And the Bucs failed at that Sunday, no matter how you slice it or how much you want to play with a calculator.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Win Probability! September 15th, 2026 Ball security wasn\u2019t an issue for Baker Mayfield on this play. It was…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1001150,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2077],"tags":[211,2599,2598,7,6,704,250,2597,2596],"class_list":["post-1001149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-buccaneers","tag-bucs-message-boards","tag-bucs-news","tag-football","tag-nfl","tag-tampa-bay","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tampabay","tag-tampabaybuccaneers"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117273110156451709","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1001149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1001149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1001149\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1001150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1001149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1001149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1001149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}