{"id":1004775,"date":"2026-09-19T05:48:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T05:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1004775\/"},"modified":"2026-09-19T05:48:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T05:48:21","slug":"commentary-what-we-dont-know-yet-in-the-nfl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/1004775\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: What we don\u2019t know yet in the NFL"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s your annual reminder, dear reader. The first week of the NFL is a mystery. It\u2019s an enigma. It\u2019s a puzzle, wrapped in a riddle, smothered in secret sauce. We don\u2019t know what we\u2019re watching yet, and we don\u2019t have the context to define it.<\/p>\n

Does it mean anything that New York is 2-0 and Los Angeles is 0-2 so far? Do we expect the Bears to score eight touchdowns a game every week? Or for tight end Trey McBride to lead everyone in receptions?<\/p>\n

Probably not. This is a very small sample size, statistically speaking, so we don\u2019t need to overreact. I don\u2019t expect Denver to look that bad all season, nor Arizona to look that good. In fact, I don\u2019t think any team\u2019s week one performance should define our expectations for them this season. The Jets, Giants, Raiders, and Cardinals all combined to trail for zero seconds in week one, that\u2019s insane enough to realize how little the first week means overall.<\/p>\n

By the way, Cleveland is the exception that proves the rule here. They\u2019re not as bad as we expected, they\u2019re somehow worse. I can\u2019t tell who their dogged determination to keep trotting Deshaun Watson out there is hurting more, Watson, the team, Browns fans, or the entire concept of \u201cfootball.\u201d<\/p>\n

So what do we actually know? Well, I can honestly say the Cowboys defense looked better at times, but definitely not most of the time. I know, it\u2019s just the first week, it\u2019s a first time defensive coordinator, it\u2019s apparently the first time for some guys to understand the concept of \u201ctackling,\u201d and all of that.\u00a0 I understand how confusing it can be to see the exact same play run over and over again, Dallas, but maybe you could look into stopping it by week four.<\/p>\n

As for the Texans, I\u2019m not worried yet. Buffalo is going to carve up a lot of defenses this year, and that Houston offense seemed a bit better, which is enough to continue the cautious optimism.<\/p>\n


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What\u2019s changed as far as offseason additions? Well, new coaches did pretty well. The Chiefs getting Kenneth Walker seems absolutely huge. And the two biggest acquisitions of the offseason are both already on IR, so good luck with all that.<\/p>\n

Past that, we don\u2019t know much yet. More will be unveiled this week, probably at great emotional and financial cost to me. But that\u2019s the way it goes, and anyone who tells you they already know what\u2019s happening is going to complete ignore their predictions when they go wrong, probably by next week.<\/p>\n

Time for the week two picks. Last week I went 5-3 straight up, and 4-4 against Las Vegas. In my defense, I expected the Rams to collapse, I just didn\u2019t think it would be in week one against a team that\u2019s often defeated by their own practice facility. Lesson learned there. Here\u2019s my picks for this week. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.<\/p>\n

Washington (+3.5) at Dallas: Both of these teams had offensive performances in week one, but not in the good way, more in the \u201cclutch your pearls and recoil in disgust\u201d way.<\/p>\n

Pick: Cowboys to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer points.<\/p>\n

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Houston: Good news, the Bengals finally have a defense. Bad news, their offense is wrecking your fantasy team. Or my team at least, please don\u2019t tell me about yours.<\/p>\n

Pick: Bengals to win it outright.<\/p>\n

New Orleans (+7.5) at Baltimore: The Saints had a furious rally last week to tie the game and then missed a two-point conversion to lose in OT. That\u2019s how you build an identity for your team, whether you win or not.<\/p>\n

Pick: Ravens to win and cover, winning by eight or more points.<\/p>\n

Indianapolis (+6.5) at Kansas City: Last year for Colts fans? \u201cEh, we\u2019re injured.\u201d Last week for Colts fans? \u201cEh, maybe we just suck.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by six points or fewer.<\/p>\n

Las Vegas (+6.5) at LA Chargers: You can put them in San Diego. You can move them to LA. You could drive them up and down the coast from Dana Point to Fort Bragg and all points in between, but the Chargers are always still going to be the Chargers.<\/p>\n

Pick: Raiders to win it outright.<\/p>\n

Cleveland (+8.5) at Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield is the ghost of quarterbacks past for the Browns. Which honestly happens a lot, but this is one of the rare opportunities where a former Browns quarterback is actually worth remembering.<\/p>\n

Pick: Bucs to win and cover, winning by nine points or more.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll also take the Rams over the Giants, Seahawks over the Cardinals, and literally anything over an AI flier. Good luck, my friends.<\/p>\n

Reid Kerr thinks eventually Pat McAfee will leave ESPN and become his own network, or possibly his own planet. You can always send questions, comments, and angry messages to him on Threads at @snowfire51.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s your annual reminder, dear reader. The first week of the NFL is a mystery. It\u2019s an enigma.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1004776,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2064],"tags":[241,7,1014,262,2444,2443,6],"class_list":["post-1004775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles-chargers","tag-chargers","tag-football","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-losangeles","tag-losangeleschargers","tag-nfl"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117296136676643551","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}