John Harbaugh\u2019s New York Football Giants made the Dallas Cowboys defend four scoring drives of at least ten plays on the first nationally-televised Sunday night game of the year. Jaxson Dart repeatedly found the right read that prolonged their drives and led to scoring. New York converted nine of 11 third downs (and recovered three of its four fumbles\u2014less sexy). Their league-leading 59.4 yards per possession partly reflects those mistakes, so the number\u2019s sort of deceptively unimpressive. Which is to say I like what I\u2019ve seen thus far from Matt Nagy\u2019s new offense, but I\u2019d expect they leave some of their good fortune behind in Jersey. Especially headed to SoFi, against a Rams team which\u2019s had just about as many global misfortunes as one team can have only a single game into the NFL campaign. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week\u2019s NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n Nagy used two or fewer receivers on 45.5% of dropbacks, up from 28.5% for the Giants last season. He called play action for Dart on 33% of dropbacks. Dart also took six designed runs before victory formation kneeldowns. The Rams\u2019 linebackers will have to account for him alongside Cam Skattebo; I expect Nagy to keep throwing behind defenders who step toward the run, particularly with Isaiah Likely working inside. I imagine Likely could be a nightmare for Nate Landman and the likes of LA\u2019s linebacking core.<\/p>\n Dart completed 17 of 20 throws released within 2.5 seconds of the snap against Dallas. San Francisco used the same quick passing approach against Los Angeles, whose rush generated quick pressure on just 5.6% of dropbacks. Aaron Donald\u2019s expected return changes the interior matchup some, particularly in the run game.Myles Garrett hitting IR with a knee injury won\u2019t feel too different from last week, since he didn\u2019t generate a single pressure. With some expected positive regression for the Rams\u2019 front seven, I\u2019ll remind you that Dallas forced a sack-fumble when Dart missed a slot blitz last Sunday Night. He\u2019ll still need to recognize where Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula sends pressure; Devin Singletary is particularly good in pass protection, and I expect Nagy to deploy him against Shula\u2019s blitzes.<\/p>\n I was, however, a little less persuaded than most by the Giants\u2019 defensive performance. They surrendered 43.4 yards per possession to Dallas despite allowing just 20 points, and now cornerback Paulson Adebo is on injured reserve, with Deonte Banks questionable. The Cowboys just offense just detonated against the Commanders, so I do give the Giants some credit for limiting the Cowboys\u2019 scoring. <\/p>\n Still, 2025 NFL MVP Matthew Stafford should find Davante Adams against that depleted secondary, particularly if McVay remembers to keep him on the field near the goal line. Adams played just one of six snaps inside the 10 against San Francisco. One! With Puka Nacua off the field last season, Adams drew targets on 37.6% of his 93 routes and averaged 2.37 yards per route. I\u2019d expect Stafford to demand Adams\u2019 presence in the huddle considerably more often if Nacua\u2019s hip keeps him out tonight.<\/p>\n McVay can also bring out three tight ends, draw linebackers toward the run, and trust Stafford to throw into the zones behind them; he used that approach to beat Jacksonville 35-7 last season without Nacua. Terrance Ferguson interests me here. He ran routes on 72.7% of first-half dropbacks in Melbourne, although his participation fell to 44.8% over the full game and Stafford targeted him only once. I can see Ferguson having the game folks\u2019ve been waiting for, especially if Nacua sits, but McVay needs to sustain that early involvement. I\u2019m expecting a change in how Stafford distributes his throws as much as better execution.<\/p>\n