Saying \u2018Pick a QB\u2019 is Easy. There Just Isn\u2019t One.<\/p>\n
Wherever you look, the narrative is the same.<\/p>\n
\u201cPick a quarterback.\u201d<\/p>\n
Across social media, especially on Twitter, in mock drafts and on TV and radio talk shows, everyone believes that Miami \u2014 should they end up with the first pick in April\u2019s draft \u2014 have to take a passer. Because that\u2019s what bad teams do, right?<\/p>\n
After all, three games of Malik Willis<\/a> trying to play with the worst skill-position group I\u2019ve seen in the NFL for many years should be more than enough time to justify moving on.<\/p>\n Of course, I\u2019m being facetious.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s clearly a debate amongst the impatient and the aggregators in a draft with two super blue-chip players \u2014 at WR and CB \u2014 and a handful of other very, very good prospects, none of whom are quarterbacks. Yet no matter where you look, the same drum keeps being beaten: \u201cMiami have to take a passer in round one.\u201d<\/p>\n I mean, I get tweeted this all the time, so it must be true, right?<\/p>\n However, the strange thing is, nobody has provided a satisfactory reply to my simple retort:<\/p>\n \u201cWhich quarterback are you taking?\u201d<\/p>\n Because right now, there isn\u2019t a quarterback to take.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s what makes this constant conversation about what Miami should or shouldn\u2019t do in April so asinine.<\/p>\n It\u2019s true\u00a0that, as we sit here today with the Dolphins<\/a> 0-3,\u00a0Malik Willis<\/a> hasn\u2019t done enough to allay concerns about whether\u00a0he\u2019s a franchise quarterback who can lead this team deep into the playoffs. But as I said in a column right here on this site a few weeks ago, the front office believes he can be a top-10 passer in this league. That\u2019s why they went out and signed him, rather than sit through Quinn Ewers<\/a> as the incumbent starter in 2026.<\/p>\n This consideration has many sides. But I can absolutely and unequivocally guarantee you one thing:<\/p>\n The Jon-Eric Sullivan evaluation will be significantly longer than three games.<\/p>\n Even before De\u2019Von Achane<\/a>\u2018s devastating knee injury, Miami had the worst skill-position group in the league. Three rookie wideouts, including one coming off his own ACL tear, and a second, a fifth-round slot receiver weighing less than 180 lbs, have been paired with a guy who\u2019s no better than a number four on most teams:\u00a0Malik Washington<\/a>.\u00a0The tight end group contains a useful rookie blocker and an H-back who\u2019s already been cut from two teams in four seasons. Imagine being a car mechanic or a fighter pilot or an Uber driver or a military sniper and being told that you can only use one of your arms to work with, and that the other will be securely tied behind your back for the entire duration of the next four months.<\/p>\n Welcome to Malik Willis<\/a>\u2019s office.<\/p>\n The Dolphins know this, and they understand this. It\u2019s why their evaluation timetable and yours are two completely different things.<\/p>\n If you\u2019ve seen the Christopher Nolan movie Interstellar<\/a>, then consider this Malik Willis affair akin to Miller\u2019s Planet, where the immense gravitational field of the supermassive black hole Gargantua creates extreme time dilation: one hour on Miller\u2019s Planet equals seven years on Earth. Although Matthew McConaughey\u2019s Cooper and Anne Hathaway\u2019s Brand only stay in the shallow, endless ocean for three hours and seventeen minutes, in Earth time, they actually spent twenty-three years, four months and eight days there.<\/p>\n Ergo: you are Miller\u2019s Planet. Sully is Earth.<\/p>\n Or, as I like to call it: reality.<\/p>\n But let\u2019s put Malik Willis aside and consider my previous question:<\/p>\n \u201cWhich quarterback are you taking?\u201d<\/p>\n All of these conversations start with Arch Manning<\/a> because he\u2019s part of the NFL\u2019s First Family and was the assumed #1 pick coming into the season.<\/p>\n He\u2019s clearly talented: big, strong arm, physical, creative as a runner. Some people have referred to him as having \u2018elite traits\u2019, but, as my friend and Seahawks draft analyst Rob Staton added in a tweet to me on Sunday, the traits \u201care good, but they aren\u2019t elite\u201d. And he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n What\u2019s more concerning is that Manning has rarely lived up to those traits consistently<\/a>. Watch his film. I\u2019ve studied every throw he\u2019s made this season. He\u2019s late, he\u2019s inaccurate, he\u2019s hesitant, he can be extremely chaotic, and he doesn\u2019t make good decisions from the pocket. 2026 has been a regression from the previous season, and he\u2019s not close to the top five best draft-eligible quarterbacks so far this season in terms of performance.<\/p>\n And the hard truth is, he simply doesn\u2019t look like a first-round pick at this point.<\/p>\n On Saturday night, during another up-and-down performance, this time in Knoxville, someone referred to him as the college equivalent of Daniel Jones<\/a> and, frankly, there\u2019s a lot of truth to that.<\/p>\n At some point, those traits have to graduate into something more, and they haven\u2019t. Unless there is a revolutionary transformation between now and the end of the season, I would be stunned if a GM took him #1 overall because you\u2019re betting on something you\u2019ve yet to see.<\/p>\n As Staton added: \u201cNever has a second name worked so hard to improve someone\u2019s stock.\u201d<\/p>\n What about Oregon\u2019s Dante Moore<\/a>? If Arch was option 1, Moore was seen as option 1A. Yet I struggled with him a little last season: he did lots of things well without anything being spectacular. He has a strong arm, works well high to low, rarely puts the ball in harm\u2019s way, and, as a post-snap processor, he\u2019s solid. But something always felt missing. He plays very much within the confines of a system built to suit his talents. And 2026 has been a little underwhelming. Now, after the egregious head shot he took against USC, he may not ever suit up for the Ducks again. The statement released by the school in the aftermath of Saturday\u2019s concussion used the following carefully chosen words:<\/p>\n \u201cWe are going to move forwards with an abundance of caution to ensure we make the best decisions for Dante and his future.\u201d<\/p>\n Even if he does return to the lineup, he\u2019s going to miss a number of games, which will hurt the overall evaluation, especially as the offense looked just as efficient with Dylan Raiola<\/a> at quarterback after Moore left the game.<\/p>\n Because \u2014 and this is really important \u2014 if you\u2019re taking a quarterback first overall, you better be pretty damn sure he\u2019s going to be special. I\u2019m not sold Moore is.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Oklahoma State\u2019s Drew Mestemaker<\/a> has been up and down: the highs are super high, but Saturday was just his fourth EVER start against FBS competition. He\u2019s a 20-year-old redshirt sophomore who absolutely shouldn\u2019t come out. He\u2019s already turning the ball over at a high rate of knots, underlining his inexperience. Notre Dame\u2019s CJ Carr<\/a> has been solid and efficient, but he\u2019s also a redshirt sophomore, and all indications are that he will stay in South Bend. Same for Minnesota\u2019s high-powered Drake Lindsay. LaNorris Sellers<\/a> needs yet another season to prove he\u2019s not just an athlete at the position and shouldn\u2019t be anywhere near round one.<\/p>\n Miami\u2019s Darian Mensah<\/a> has more touchdowns than incompletions, but he\u2019s played absolutely no one so far this season and almost certainly won\u2019t face a ranked team until November 8th, when the Hurricanes travel to Notre Dame, which clouds the evaluation.<\/p>\n Albeit none of that is his fault.<\/p>\n He\u2019s also throwing to the best WR in college football not called Jeremiah Smith<\/a>, and when Malachi Toney<\/a> missed much of the second half against Wake Forest, Mensah struggled.<\/p>\n The most impressive draft-eligible passers so far this season have been Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss<\/a> and Missouri\u2019s Austin Simmons<\/a>. Despite the defeat to Florida, the former remains the most exciting player in college football. His strong arm, tight release, accuracy and ball placement, and ability to use his legs to create out of structure are all outstanding. He consistently flashes fast eyes; he can zip those backside digs and in-breaking routes as well as anyone in the nation; and I don\u2019t think there\u2019s a Saturday passer who consistently throws his man open the way Chambliss does. But there are concerns: he was measured in the summer at just 5117 (or 5\u201911 and 7\/8ths), 205. He\u2019ll also turn 25 during training camp. These are going to be significant issues for some teams.<\/p>\n During Jon-Eric Sullivan\u2019s time in Green Bay, the Packers drafted nine quarterbacks. None were less than 6\u20192 in height. Only Sean Clifford<\/a>, at 213 lbs, was less than 220. The average size for a Packers-drafted QB since 2004 is 6\u20193, 223.<\/p>\n That\u2019s well worth bearing in mind because these things are important indicators.<\/p>\n 6\u20193, 223 is just around the size of Missouri passer Austin Simmons (officially listed at 6\u20194, 221), who\u2019s been ripping it up in the SEC since the season began. An Ole Miss transfer, he injured his ankle in week two of 2025 against Kentucky and lost his job to the aforementioned Chambliss. A big lefty, his arm talent and the velocity he can generate with it are rare, and the former baseball standout is able to sling it around the park at a remarkable rate of RPMs. Without star running back Ahmad Hardy<\/a>, who\u2019s still recovering from a gunshot wound suffered in May, he shows a strong pre-snap command, uses his eyes to manipulate defenders to create throwing windows, and is extremely cerebral.<\/p>\n But the Miami native has started just five career games, despite graduating before he ever took a snap in college as the lead dog.<\/p>\n Many critical weeks of the college football season are still left to play out, and it would be foolish to rule anything and anyone out.<\/p>\n However, parroting the \u2018take a quarterback\u2019 narrative without assessing the facts and the bigger picture doesn\u2019t seem to be overly smart. Especially considering that the best player to help the rebuild \u2014 and the evaluation \u2014 is also comfortably the best player in the draft, and he\u2019s born and raised in Miami.<\/p>\n As we stand here today, passing on Jeremiah Smith would be even more foolhardy.<\/p>\n What makes matters more intriguing is the stockpile of quarterbacks who look like they\u2019ll end up in the 2028 selection meeting, including the outstanding Kamario Taylor<\/a> of Mississippi State, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele<\/a> of Cal, the exciting and rapidly improving Keelon Russell<\/a> of Alabama, Mason Heintschel<\/a> of Pitt, and then the aforementioned group of Mestemaker, Carr, Lindsay and Sellers.<\/p>\n